Roger Williams University '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.72 (fleet 2.42) | 248 of 328 | −0.03 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–70 (43%) as crew 11–19 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 16–10 | 11–19 |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 13–25 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 16–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 8–24 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (153 matches) the record is 64–89 against 64.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler | crew | 3.14 | 3.13 | 7–9 | 7.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-28 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | crew | 3.16 | 2.69 | 4–10 | 5.2 | −0.47 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2026-03-14 | Women's SNE Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 3.17 | 4–2 | 3.3 | +0.85 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2026-03-07 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 1.94 | 8–4 | 8.7 | −0.34 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2026-03-01 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 3.84 | 4–4 | 1.9 | +1.65 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 2025-04-12 | NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy | skipper | 2.24 | 1.81 | 3–6 | 3.6 | −0.43 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2025-04-05 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.18 | 2.75 | 4–4 | 3.2 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2025-03-22 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.10 | 2.25 | 5–11 | 4.6 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 2025-03-01 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 0.52 | 1–4 | 2.1 | −1.56 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 2.07 | 2.59 | 3–6 | 2.2 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2024-04-06 | Bowdoin Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 3.49 | 7–2 | 4.5 | +1.54 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 2024-03-30 | Callahan Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | 0.98 | 6–3 | 7.4 | −0.95 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2023-04-01 | Women's Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.48 | -0.24 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.72 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 1.46 | 0.50 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.30 | 1.77 | 5–5 | 4.0 | +0.47 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.15 | 1.07 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's SNE Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler Women's | Crew | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 2.94 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2025 Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.0 | 2.68 |
| Stu Nelson@ Connecticut College Women's | Skipper | C | 7 | 10.3 | 1.84 |
| The 27th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.6 | 1.66 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Women's Fleet Race National Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.5 | 1.66 |
| NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.2 | 2.08 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2024 Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.2 | 2.36 |
| Stu Nelson@ Connecticut College Women's | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.7 | 2.42 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.6 | 1.94 |
| Eagle Invite | Skipper | C | 6 | 7.0 | -0.16 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.2 | 2.56 |
| Eastern Women's National Semi-final Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.4 | 2.31 |
| Callahan Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Bowdoin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 2.38 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 2.40 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.40 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.3 | 1.71 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.9 | 1.96 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Staake Trophy Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 2.52 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 3.16 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 11.8 | 1.56 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.9 | 0.46 |
| CC Invite Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 4.4 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
