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Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 9–3
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8–4
3 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 8–4
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5–7
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.400 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.08 ± 0.57: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave		38.17
school −0.10		Oakley Cunningham / Caroline Caudron 2.48
Lola Kohl / Skye Terrell 2.32
Ava Anderson / Ella May Corckran 3.42		58%9–3 (75%)+2.0
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		18.75
school +0.46		Lucy Meagher / Maren Matthews 3.14
Tavia Smith / Mackenzie Speece 2.84
Katherine Mcgagh / Elyssa Franklin 2.27		73%8–4 (67%)−0.7
3College of Charleston
Cougars		28.54
school +0.32		Ashley Alfortish / Lucy Zinn 2.78
Bella Shakespeare / Lucy Elvart 3.12
Georgia Shuster / Gaelen Adam 2.28		68%8–4 (67%)−0.1
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		47.84
school +0.18		Brooke Barry / Sophia Woodbury 2.75
Karya Basaraner / Alice Colby 2.51
Emma Wang / Layla Bursor 2.31		51%5–7 (42%)−1.1
5Jacksonville University
Fins		52.61
school −0.29		Fiona Froelich / Cheyenne Dooley 1.96
Kaitlyn Anderson / Annie Mckenzie 0.72
Frances Hanson / Amelia Sulciner		0%0–12 (0%)−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tulane University8.179.109–37.0+0.931.316%
3College of Charleston8.548.498–48.1−0.050.067%
2Roger Williams University8.758.418–48.7−0.340.280%
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology7.847.235–76.1−0.610.587%
5Jacksonville University2.61-0.390–120.0≤−3.000.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Oakley CunninghamTulane University2.483.429–37.0+0.931.316%
Lola KohlTulane University2.323.259–37.0+0.931.316%
Ava AndersonTulane University3.424.369–37.0+0.931.316%
Ashley AlfortishCollege of Charleston2.782.738–48.1−0.050.067%
Bella ShakespeareCollege of Charleston3.123.078–48.1−0.050.067%
Georgia ShusterCollege of Charleston2.282.238–48.1−0.050.067%
Lucy MeagherRoger Williams University3.142.818–48.7−0.340.280%
Tavia SmithRoger Williams University2.842.518–48.7−0.340.280%
Katherine McgaghRoger Williams University2.271.948–48.7−0.340.280%
Brooke BarryMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.752.145–76.1−0.610.587%
Karya BasaranerMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.511.905–76.1−0.610.587%
Emma WangMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.311.705–76.1−0.610.587%
Fiona FroelichJacksonville University1.96-1.040–120.0≤−3.000.1>99%
Kaitlyn AndersonJacksonville University0.72-2.280–120.0≤−3.000.1>99%
Frances HansonJacksonville University0.08-2.920–120.0≤−3.000.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRoger Williams University28%upset
12College of CharlestonTulane University59%
13Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University100%
14Roger Williams UniversityTulane University64%
15College of CharlestonMassachusetts Institute of Technology67%
16Roger Williams UniversityJacksonville University100%
17Tulane UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology58%
18Roger Williams UniversityCollege of Charleston55%
19Tulane UniversityJacksonville University100%
110College of CharlestonJacksonville University100%
211Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRoger Williams University29%upset
212College of CharlestonTulane University59%
213Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University99%
214Tulane UniversityRoger Williams University36%upset
215College of CharlestonMassachusetts Institute of Technology67%
216Roger Williams UniversityJacksonville University100%
217Tulane UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology58%
218Roger Williams UniversityCollege of Charleston55%
219Tulane UniversityJacksonville University100%
220College of CharlestonJacksonville University100%
321Tulane UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology58%
322Roger Williams UniversityCollege of Charleston55%
323Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University99%
324Tulane UniversityCollege of Charleston41%upset
325Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology70%
326Tulane UniversityJacksonville University100%
327College of CharlestonMassachusetts Institute of Technology66%
328Tulane UniversityRoger Williams University36%upset
329College of CharlestonJacksonville University100%
330Roger Williams UniversityJacksonville University100%

Round 1

TeamRec.WaveHawksCougarsEngineersFins
Tulane University Green Wave2–2✕LLWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–1W✕WLW
College of Charleston Cougars3–1WL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–2LWL✕W
Jacksonville University Fins0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WaveHawksCougarsEngineersFins
Tulane University Green Wave3–1✕WLWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–2L✕WLW
College of Charleston Cougars3–1WL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–2LWL✕W
Jacksonville University Fins0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WaveHawksCougarsEngineersFins
Tulane University Green Wave4–0✕WWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–1L✕WWW
College of Charleston Cougars2–2LL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–3LLL✕W
Jacksonville University Fins0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
2 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-5-6
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
4 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2-4-5
5 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
6 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
7 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
9 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
10 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
12 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
15 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
16 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
17 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
18 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
19 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
20 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
21 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-6
22 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-5-6
23 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
24 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-4-5
25 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 DNF def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
26 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
27 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
28 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-6
29 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
30 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/07/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1023.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From S (182°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1023.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →