| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 4–5 |
| 3 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 20,646 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.409 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 87% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufts University Jumbos | 1 | 7.90 school +0.12, home +0.41 | Chloe Holder / Maisie Macgillivray 2.85 Annika Fedde / Naomi Pedersen 2.42 Samantha Jensen / Lilly Ladd 2.08 | 90% | 9–0 (100%) | +0.9 |
| 2 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 4 | 5.47 school −0.14 | Grace Gear / Maddy Saffer 2.38 Elizabeth Amelotte / Campbell Mcclellan 1.45 Audrey Commerford / Lilia Hutchins 1.74 | 30% | 4–5 (44%) | +1.3 |
| 3 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 2 | 5.93 | Okyanus Arıkan / Elizabeth Taylor 2.63 Kytalin Hendrickson / Kaylee Good 2.31 Lily Moore / Katie Coughlin 0.98 | 43% | 4–5 (44%) | +0.1 |
| 4 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 3 | 5.72 school +0.30 | Grace Woodcock / Maren Matthews Caylin Schnoor / Alexandra Chigas 1.97 Katherine Mcgagh / Elyssa Franklin 1.48 | 37% | 1–8 (11%) | −2.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufts University | 7.90 | 10.90 | 9–0 | 8.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 38% |
| 2 | University of Vermont | 5.47 | 6.19 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.73 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 3 | University of Rhode Island | 5.93 | 6.01 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 4 | Roger Williams University | 5.72 | 4.00 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.72 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika Fedde | Tufts University | 2.42 | 5.42 | 9–0 | 8.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 38% |
| Grace Gear | University of Vermont | 2.38 | 3.11 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.73 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | University of Vermont | 1.45 | 2.17 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.73 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Audrey Commerford | University of Vermont | 1.74 | 2.47 | 4–5 | 2.7 | +0.73 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Okyanus Arıkan | University of Rhode Island | 2.63 | 2.70 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Lily Moore | University of Rhode Island | 0.98 | 1.05 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Grace Woodcock | Roger Williams University | 1.92 | 0.20 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.72 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Katherine Mcgagh | Roger Williams University | 1.48 | -0.24 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.72 | 2.6 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Catamounts | Rams | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Catamounts | Rams | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 0–3 | L | ✕ | L | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–2 | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Catamounts | Rams | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Catamounts | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Annika Fedde '23 Chloe Holder '23 Samantha Jensen '24 |
Naomi Pedersen '25 Maisie Macgillivray '25 Lilly Ladd '26 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Audrey Commerford '25 Elizabeth Amelotte '24 Grace Gear '23 |
Lilia Hutchins '23 Campbell Mcclellan '26 Maddy Saffer '24 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Kytalin Hendrickson '26 Lily Moore '26 Okyanus Arıkan '26 |
Kaylee Good '26 Katie Coughlin '24 Elizabeth Taylor '24 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Caylin Schnoor '25 Grace Woodcock '23 Katherine Mcgagh '26 |
Alexandra Chigas '26 Maren Matthews '26 Elyssa Franklin '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
