Roger Williams University '25
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 52.17 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.098 rating points from 95 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.76 (fleet 2.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–60 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 7–28 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 9–26 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (77 matches) the record is 17–60 against 20.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 0.97 | 1–6 | 1.8 | −0.97 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2023-04-01 | Women's Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.97 | 0.25 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.72 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 1.90 | 0.94 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.97 | 2.24 | 4–6 | 3.5 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.02 | 1.66 | 1–6 | 1.2 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 1.20 | 3–13 | 4.7 | −0.83 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 1.91 | 1.92 | 2–7 | 2.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 1.66 | 2.73 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.07 | 1.5 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2024 Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.3 | 1.93 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.8 | 1.75 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 2.35 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.4 | 2.66 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Fall Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 1.14 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 2.86 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Staake Trophy Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 16.8 | 0.27 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.7 | 2.00 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.2 | 2.48 |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.9 | 2.47 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.1 | 1.97 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 2.84 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.0 | 1.69 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 2.57 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.7 | 2.52 |
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - College | Crew | B | 6 | 4.2 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 9.4 | — |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 1.56 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 10.2 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 8.1 | — |
| Women's ACC's Round 1A Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 11.8 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | C | 12 | 8.1 | 2.09 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 2.45 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.9 | 1.18 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 8.5 | — |
| 2022 Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | B | 7 | 6.6 | — |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.5 | 2.34 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caylin Schnoor |  Parker |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
