2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - College

HostSouthern Cal
Date01/07/2023
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

Analysis

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	7	9	16
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	28	25	53
3	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	42	34	76
4	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	38	38	76
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	23	58	81
6	Eckerd College	Tritons	39	53	92
7	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	42	51	93
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	72	37	109
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	66	44	110
10	George Washington University	Buff and Blue	41	79	120
11	University of Vermont	Catamounts	49 MRP	77 MRP	126 MRP
12	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	71	67	138
13	University of Southern California	Trojans	91	50	141
14	Northwestern University	Wildcats	91	58	149
15	Arizona State University	Sun Devils	69	101	170
16	Santa Clara University	Broncos	96	78	174
17	Oregon State University	Beavers	83	93	176
18	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	101	96	197

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas	2	1	1	1	1	1	7	Edward Cook '23 Marguerite Montagner '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	5	8	2	2	4	2	23	Madison Bashaw '24 Sam Muir '22
Roger Williams University	Hawks	8	3	5	3	2	7	28	Jack Roman '26 Maren Matthews '26
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	10	6	9	4	6	3	38	Grant Janov '25 [1-2] Marianna Shand '24 [3-6] Teresa Dang '24 [1-2] Emma Worthington '23 [3-6]
Eckerd College	Tritons	9	5	3	5	12	5	39	Matthew Monts '24 Anna O'Reilly '25
George Washington University	Buff and Blue	7	4	6	8	5	11	41	Owen Timms '23 Sylvia Fresco '23
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	4	7	7	12	8	4	42	Adam Larson '24 Isabella Du Plessis '25
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	6	9	8	7	3	9	42	Ted Mcdonough '26 Joshua Pelletier '24
University of Vermont	Catamounts	1	2	4	6	10	6	49 MRP	Connell Phillipps '23 Emma Ardizzoni '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	11	10	14	14	7	10	66	Thomas Green '23 Caelan Mcmichael '26
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	14	13	16	9	9	8	69	Aidan Boylan '24 Noah Lovelace '25
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	15	11	12	10	11	12	71	Nikhil Stewart '25 Sophia Shaeffer '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3	DNF	10	13	14	13	72	Matthew Kickhafer '23 [1-2] Jack Farrell '23 [3-6] Jack Farrell '23 [1-2] Marty Weigel '25 [3-6]
Oregon State University	Beavers	12	16	17	11	13	14	83	Liam Brinton '22 Aaron Heard '25
University of Southern California	Trojans	13	14	13	17	17	17	91	Edward Ansart '24 [1-2] Eleanor Desai '23 [3-4] Jackson Mckinley '26 [5-6] John Hutchison '23 [1-2] Liam Hoole '25 [3-6]
Northwestern University	Wildcats	16	15	15	15	15	15	91	Matthew Beretta '23 Gracie Corbett '26
Santa Clara University	Broncos	18	12	18	16	16	16	96	Will Dimaio '26 Ba-Duong Nguyen '25
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	17	17	11	18	DNS	DNS	101	Tessa Greene '26 Jessica Stewart '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas	2	2	1	1	1	2	9	Piper Holthus '25 Louisa Buckingham '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	1	4	5	5	6	4	25	George Higham '23 Caylin Schnoor '25
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	DSQ	1	4	2	2	6	34	Jonathan Seawards '26 Kaitlin Chan '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	14	5	2	3	5	8	37	Emma Snead '23 Leonora Krajewski '23
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	10	7	3	4	9	5	38	Gideon Burnes Heath '23 [1-6] Marianna Shand '24 [1-2] Linnea Jackson '25 [3-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	5	12	10	7	7	3	44	Cole Tillson '26 Andrew Campbell '23
University of Southern California	Trojans	16	13	6	6	8	1	50	Miles Kirkbride '26 [1-2] Davis Winsor '24 [3-6] Julia Carpenter '24 [1-2] Ariana Gabier '24 [3-6]
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	6	8	15	12	3	7	51	Jacob Usher '25 [1-6] Jacob Friend '25 [1-2, 5-6] Robert Chase '26 [3-4]
Eckerd College	Tritons	7	11	14	8	4	9	53	Griffin Richardson '25 Elissa Martinez '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	3	9	9	10	16	11	58	Max Kleha '25 Zoe Hoctor '25
Northwestern University	Wildcats	11	10	7	9	11	10	58	Delaney Smith '26 [1-6] Peter Spoerri '23 [1-2, 5-6] Owen Lubben '24 [3-4]
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	8	6	11	13	10	DNS	67	Vivian Bonsager '25 Trey Summers '24
University of Vermont	Catamounts	4	3	8	14	13	15	77 MRP	Calvin Lamosse '25 Will Broseman '26
Santa Clara University	Broncos	12	15	12	11	14	14	78	Morgan Vodzak '25 Quin Doughty '25
George Washington University	Buff and Blue	13	14	13	15	12	12	79	Tryg Van Wyk '26 Nick Lopez '26
Oregon State University	Beavers	9	16	17	17	17	17	93	Quincy Spurlock '24 [1-6] Khalia Mork '26 [1-2] Elisabeth Grace Diemer '26 [3-6]
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	15	18	16	16	15	16	96	Viola Phillips Frank '26 [1-6] Ines Huret '24 [1-2, 5-6] Aaron Shalf '23 [3-4]
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	17	17	18	18	18	13	101	Sadie Hoberman '25 Natalie Tricarico '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Arizona State University Sun Devils	40	40	67	67	77	77
University of California at Berkeley Bears	61	61	31	31	37	37
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	70	70	61	61	31	31
Eckerd College Tritons	76	76	71	71	36	36
George Washington University Buff and Blue	67	67	77	77	74	74
Georgetown University Hoyas	65	65	76	76	71	71
University of Hawaii Rainbows	36	36	27	27	68	68
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	68	68	66	66	72	72
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	77	77	74	74	47	47
Northwestern University Wildcats	69	69	65	65	76	76
Oregon State University Beavers	74	74	47	47	70	70
Roger Williams University Hawks	72	72	69	69	65	65
Santa Clara University Broncos	47	47	70	70	61	61
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	40	40	67	67
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	66	66	72	72	69	69
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	68	68	66	66
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	31	31	37	37	40	40
University of Vermont Catamounts	71	71	36	36	27	27

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Arizona State University Sun Devils	76	76	65	65	69	69
University of California at Berkeley Bears	27	27	36	36	71	71
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	68	68	27	27	36	36
Eckerd College Tritons	40	40	37	37	31	31
George Washington University Buff and Blue	65	65	69	69	72	72
Georgetown University Hoyas	67	67	40	40	37	37
University of Hawaii Rainbows	31	31	61	61	70	70
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	70	70	47	47	74	74
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	69	69	72	72	66	66
Northwestern University Wildcats	77	77	67	67	40	40
Oregon State University Beavers	72	72	66	66	68	68
Roger Williams University Hawks	74	74	77	77	67	67
Santa Clara University Broncos	66	66	68	68	27	27
University of Southern California Trojans	71	71	76	76	65	65
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	47	47	74	74	77	77
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	61	61	70	70	47	47
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	36	36	71	71	76	76
University of Vermont Catamounts	37	37	31	31	61	61

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Aidan Boylan '24	Noah Lovelace '25
Sun Devils	Sadie Hoberman '25	Natalie Tricarico '25
Eckerd College	Matthew Monts '24	Anna O'Reilly '25
Tritons	Griffin Richardson '25	Elissa Martinez '23
George Washington University	Owen Timms '23	Sylvia Fresco '23
Buff and Blue	Tryg Van Wyk '26	Nick Lopez '26
Georgetown University	Edward Cook '23	Marguerite Montagner '25
Hoyas	Piper Holthus '25	Louisa Buckingham '24
North Carolina State University	Adam Larson '24	Isabella Du Plessis '25
Wolfpack	Jacob Usher '25 [1-6]	Jacob Friend '25 [1-2, 5-6] Robert Chase '26 [3-4]
Northwestern University	Matthew Beretta '23	Gracie Corbett '26
Wildcats	Delaney Smith '26 [1-6]	Peter Spoerri '23 [1-2, 5-6] Owen Lubben '24 [3-4]
Oregon State University	Liam Brinton '22	Aaron Heard '25
Beavers	Quincy Spurlock '24 [1-6]	Khalia Mork '26 [1-2] Elisabeth Grace Diemer '26 [3-6]
Roger Williams University	Jack Roman '26	Maren Matthews '26
Hawks	George Higham '23	Caylin Schnoor '25
Santa Clara University	Will Dimaio '26	Ba-Duong Nguyen '25
Broncos	Morgan Vodzak '25	Quin Doughty '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Madison Bashaw '24	Sam Muir '22
Seahawks	Max Kleha '25	Zoe Hoctor '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Matthew Kickhafer '23 [1-2] Jack Farrell '23 [3-6]	Jack Farrell '23 [1-2] Marty Weigel '25 [3-6]
Bears	Emma Snead '23	Leonora Krajewski '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Thomas Green '23	Caelan Mcmichael '26
Mariners	Cole Tillson '26	Andrew Campbell '23
University of California at Berkeley	Tessa Greene '26	Jessica Stewart '23
Bears	Viola Phillips Frank '26 [1-6]	Ines Huret '24 [1-2, 5-6] Aaron Shalf '23 [3-4]
University of California at Los Angeles	Grant Janov '25 [1-2] Marianna Shand '24 [3-6]	Teresa Dang '24 [1-2] Emma Worthington '23 [3-6]
Bruins	Gideon Burnes Heath '23 [1-6]	Marianna Shand '24 [1-2] Linnea Jackson '25 [3-6]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Ted Mcdonough '26	Joshua Pelletier '24
Gauchos	Jonathan Seawards '26	Kaitlin Chan '23
University of Hawaii	Nikhil Stewart '25	Sophia Shaeffer '25
Rainbows	Vivian Bonsager '25	Trey Summers '24
University of Southern California	Edward Ansart '24 [1-2] Eleanor Desai '23 [3-4] Jackson Mckinley '26 [5-6]	John Hutchison '23 [1-2] Liam Hoole '25 [3-6]
Trojans	Miles Kirkbride '26 [1-2] Davis Winsor '24 [3-6]	Julia Carpenter '24 [1-2] Ariana Gabier '24 [3-6]
University of Vermont	Connell Phillipps '23	Emma Ardizzoni '23
Catamounts	Calvin Lamosse '25	Will Broseman '26

Conditions — 01/07/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 71% · Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.0 kn

avg · max 5.8 kn

Gusts to 11.1 kn

From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Southern Cal: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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