St. Mary's College of Maryland '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.49) | 232 of 328 | +0.02 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 89–49 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 26–18 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 18–14 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 21–5 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 24–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (138 matches) the record is 89–49 against 86.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.8). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Seahawk Team Race | skipper | 2.22 | 2.81 | 9–6 | 8.0 | +0.60 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2026-03-07 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 1.86 | 3–11 | 4.2 | −0.55 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2026-02-28 | NA Open Team Race at SMC | skipper | 2.30 | 4.24 | 14–1 | 11.8 | +1.94 | 2.8 | 7% |
| 2025-03-29 | Pirate Team Racing | skipper | 2.20 | 1.48 | 7–8 | 8.6 | −0.72 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2025-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 5.25 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 77% |
| 2025-03-01 | Navy Team Race Invitiational | skipper | 2.14 | 1.83 | 6–6 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 3.71 | 10–1 | 7.9 | +1.76 | 2.4 | 9% |
| 2024-03-02 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.88 | 2.76 | 11–4 | 8.7 | +0.88 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.82 | 1.28 | 13–8 | 14.5 | −0.55 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.56 | 1.48 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.3 | 1.54 |
| Seahawk Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| NA Open Team Race at SMC | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Pirate Team Racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Navy Team Race Invitiational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.8 | 0.96 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 2.79 |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.2 | 1.02 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.4 | 0.53 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| GW Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | -0.43 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Wollum | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 1.93 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 1.72 |
| 2024 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 2.39 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| 2023 Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 2.09 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.8 | 1.43 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.6 | 2.14 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.3 | 1.45 |
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - College | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.7 | 2.20 |
| 2022 Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.1 | 1.99 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.8 | 2.49 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.6 | 2.93 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.7 | 2.73 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 2.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
