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Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 19 19
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 46 46
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 50 50
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 51 51
5 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 52 52
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 69 69
7 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 71 71
8 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 72 72
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 74 74
10 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 4 75 75
11 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 78 78
12 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 79 79
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 79 79
14 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 82 82
15 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 102 102
16 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 115 115
17 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 126 126
18 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 131 131
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 2 1 3 4 3 4 1 1 19 Daniel Hughes '25
Grace Flanagan '23
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 3 4 1 8 11 2 15 2 46 Cooper Walshe '25
Margo Cicero '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 1 2 13 5 6 3 5 15 50 Caden Scheiblauer '23
Linnea Forsberg '25
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 4 16 2 9 4 6 2 8 51 Kelly Bates '26
Margot Gordon '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 9 3 9 1 9 7 8 6 52 Jack Welburn '26
Darby Graham '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 15 6 14 3 2 8 14 7 69 Miles Wolff '26
Emily Shioutakon '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 6 11 6 6 8 10 RAF 5 71 Luke Monnich '25
Marguerite Montagner '25
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 5 8 11 11 13 1 9 14 72 Tyler Brown '26 [1-8]
Lindsey Kaufmann '26 [1-5]
Grace Wright '26 [6-8]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 11 10 10 2 10 11 11 9 74 Jonathan Weed '26
Lillian Newman '25
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 4 10 13 7 15 17 5 4 4 75 Diogo Silva '26 [1-8]
Kristin Johnson '26 [1-5]
Asianna Acosta '26 [6-8]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 13 5 16 12 7 12 3 10 78 Megan Geith '24 [1-8]
Grace Wright '26 [1-5]
Lindsey Kaufmann '26 [6-8]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 8 15 5 10 1 15 12 13 79 Robert Ziman '25
Hunter Anderson '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 16 12 4 16 5 16 7 3 79 Henry Haddon '25
Shannon Brecher '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 7 7 12 7 RAF 13 6 11 82 Benjamin Smith '26
Adelia Derose '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 12 9 8 14 16 14 13 16 102 Max Kleha '25
Elizabeth Crane '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 18 RAF 15 13 12 9 17 12 115 Anson Walker '25
Alexis Tamm '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 17 14 18 18 15 17 10 17 126 Isabella Fadullon '25
Alexander Brenia '26
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 14 17 17 17 14 18 16 18 131 Parker Younger '24 [1-8]
Asianna Acosta '26 [1-5]
Kristin Johnson '26 [6-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 222222222
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 333333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 444444444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 555555555
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11414141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 21515151515151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 31616161616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 41717171717171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 51818181818181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 166666666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 277777777
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 388888888
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 499999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11010101010101010
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21111111111111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 31212121212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 41313131313131313

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From NW (314°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1023.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.27 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →