U. S. Naval Academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.78 (fleet 3.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 55–34 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 6 | 36–31 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 19–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (89 matches) the record is 55–34 against 54.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-27 | College Sailing Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.01 | 3.30 | 8–9 | 7.1 | +0.28 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2023-04-08 | Prosser Trophy - MAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.90 | 2.41 | 4–3 | 4.7 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2023-03-25 | Admiral Moore Open Team Race | skipper | 2.86 | 2.75 | 8–8 | 8.4 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2023-03-18 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 2.87 | 2.24 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.63 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 2023-03-11 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 2.53 | 9–5 | 9.8 | −0.29 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2023-03-04 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 5.75 | 5–0 | 3.9 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 23% |
| 2022-03-19 | Kings Point Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.55 | 2.38 | 10–2 | 10.3 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2022-03-05 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.16 | 3.35 | 9–1 | 7.5 | +1.18 | 1.2 | 22% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
