Admiral Moore Open Team Race

HostKings Point
Date03/25/2023
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Dartmouth College	Big Green	15–2
2	Brown University	Bears	15–2
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–8
4	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	8–9
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	8–6
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	5–9
7	University of Miami	Hurricanes	5–7
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	3–9
9	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	3–9
10	Cornell University	Big Red	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,149 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 63 of 73 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.395 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.25: an orderly event, more orderly than 87% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	10.05 school +0.33	Robert Bragg / Drew Clutterbuck 3.55 James Paul / Yumi Yoshiyasu 2.91 William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.23	68%	15–2 (88%)	+3.5
2	Brown University Bears	1	10.36 school +0.18	Liam O'Keefe / Nora Ong 3.53 Connor Nelson / Izzy Cox 3.48 Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.17 14–2 William George / Emily Mueller 2.50 1–0	75%	15–2 (88%)	+2.2
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	9.48 school +0.34	Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.21 Cooper Walshe / Madeline Smith 2.86 8–8 Gavin Mcjones / Ellie Alex 3.20 6–7 Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 2.51 3–1 Jack Welburn / Madeline Smith 2.56 1–0	55%	9–8 (53%)	−0.4
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	9.57 school +0.32	Christopher Sharpless / Caroline Dannacher 2.79 Samuel Gavula / Joshua Zeelander 2.88 Jordan Bruce / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.56	57%	8–9 (47%)	−1.6
5	College of Charleston Cougars	4	9.36 school +0.42	Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.74 Brandon Geller / Anna Sherry 3.20 Noah Zittrer / Lucy Klempen 2.98	58%	8–6 (57%)	−0.1
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7	8.74 school +0.14	Nicholas Sessions / Frances Depke 2.50 Will Murray / Tess Weber 3.06 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Rachel Duggan 2.99	42%	5–9 (36%)	−0.9
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	3	8.52 school +0.15	Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.03 4–5 Richard Mccann / James Nappo 2.54 5–4 Aidan Dennis / Dominic Canonico 2.85 2–6 Steven Hardee / Teddy Bueres 2.60 3–4 Atlee Kohl / Olivia Campmany 2.97 1–1 Atlee Kohl / Teddy Bueres 3.03 0–1	60%	5–7 (42%)	−2.2
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	8	6.97 school −0.44, home +0.40	Lucas Sawin / Andrew Campbell 2.47 David Pearce / Caelan Mcmichael 2.04 4–7 Michael Burns / Rey Jacob Alino 2.41 3–6 William Weinbecker / Rey Jacob Alino 2.39 1–3 David Pearce / Andrew Dixon 2.06 0–1 Michael Burns / Andrew Dixon 2.41 0–1	38%	4–9 (31%)	−0.9
9	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	9	5.66 school −0.29	Spencer Barnes / Eva Leggett 2.54 Ben Hosford / Mark Modzelewski 1.54 Brooks Turcotte / Shawn Tirone 1.81	14%	3–10 (23%)	+1.1
10	Cornell University Big Red	10	5.57 school −0.11	Aidan Lane / Peter Jordan 1–9 Jack Merrill / Adler Weber 1–8 Sophia Devling / Clara Hewson 2.52 0–6 Sophia Devling / Isabel Dhar 2.48 1–4 Jack Merrill / Isabel Dhar 0–2 Aidan Lane / Clara Hewson 0–1 Sophia Devling / Peter Jordan 2.42 0–1 Jack Merrill / Clara Hewson 0–1 Aidan Lane / Adler Weber 0–1	14%	1–11 (8%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Dartmouth College	10.05	11.47	15–2	11.5	+1.42	3.2	4%
2	Brown University	10.36	11.31	15–2	12.8	+0.96	1.4	16%
9	SUNY Maritime College	5.66	6.45	3–10	1.9	+0.80	0.7	27%
5	College of Charleston	9.36	9.31	8–6	8.1	−0.06	0.0	66%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	9.48	9.37	9–8	9.4	−0.11	0.0	68%
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	8.74	8.31	5–9	5.9	−0.43	0.3	83%
4	University of Pennsylvania	9.57	9.08	8–9	9.6	−0.50	0.6	88%
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	6.97	6.42	4–9	4.9	−0.55	0.4	87%
10	Cornell University	5.57	4.84	1–11	1.7	−0.73	0.3	88%
7	University of Miami	8.52	7.24	5–7	7.2	−1.28	2.0	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
James Paul	Dartmouth College	2.91	4.33	15–2	11.5	+1.42	3.2	4%
Ben Hosford	SUNY Maritime College	1.54	2.34	3–10	1.9	+0.80	0.7	27%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.74	2.69	8–6	8.1	−0.06	0.0	66%
Cooper Walshe	U. S. Naval Academy	2.86	2.75	8–8	8.4	−0.12	0.0	68%
David Pearce	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.04	1.55	4–8	4.7	−0.49	0.3	85%
Samuel Gavula	University of Pennsylvania	2.88	2.38	8–9	9.6	−0.50	0.6	88%
Aidan Lane	Cornell University	1.62	0.89	1–11	1.7	−0.73	0.3	88%
Richard Mccann	University of Miami	2.54	1.51	5–4	6.3	−1.03	1.0	95%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.03	1.75	5–7	7.2	−1.28	2.0	98%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.85	1.11	2–6	3.7	−1.74	2.0	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	66%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	99%
1	3	University of Pennsylvania	University of Miami	73%
1	4	Brown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	5	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	6	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
1	7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	30%	upset
1	8	Brown University	Cornell University	99%
1	9	University of Miami	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	10	Dartmouth College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	52%
1	12	Brown University	College of Charleston	73%
1	13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	14	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	18%	upset
1	15	Dartmouth College	University of Miami	81%
1	16	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	69%
1	17	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	18	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	92%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	53%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	99%
1	21	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	22	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Miami	57%
1	24	College of Charleston	Cornell University	98%
1	25	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	79%
1	26	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	27	Brown University	University of Miami	85%
1	28	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	98%
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	71%
1	30	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	34%	upset
1	31	University of Miami	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	79%
1	32	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	50%
1	33	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
1	34	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	55%
1	35	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
1	36	University of Miami	Cornell University	94%
1	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	86%
1	38	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	39	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
1	40	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	62%
1	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	96%
1	42	College of Charleston	University of Miami	67%
1	43	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	85%
1	44	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	45	Brown University	Dartmouth College	59%
4	49	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	21%	upset
4	50	University of Miami	Cornell University	93%
4	54	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	48%	upset
4	55	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Miami	21%	upset
4	59	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Cornell University	78%
4	60	University of Miami	SUNY Maritime College	95%
6	46	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	66%
6	47	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
6	48	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
6	51	Dartmouth College	Brown University	41%	upset
6	52	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	55%
6	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	71%
6	56	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	62%
6	57	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
6	58	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	40%	upset
6	61	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	70%
6	62	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
6	63	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
6	64	Brown University	College of Charleston	74%
6	65	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
6	66	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
6	67	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	79%
6	68	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	62%
6	69	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
6	70	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
6	71	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	70%
6	72	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	53%
6	73	Dartmouth College	Brown University	41%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Green	Bears	Midshipmen	Quakers	Cougars	Statesmen	Hurricanes	Mariners	Privateers	Red
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	9–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hurricanes	Mariners	Privateers	Red
University of Miami Hurricanes	2–1	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–1	W	✕	L	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–1	L	W	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Green	Bears	Midshipmen	Quakers	Cougars	Statesmen	Mariners	Privateers
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	–	–
Brown University Bears	6–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–5	L	L	✕	W	W	W	–	–
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	–	–
College of Charleston Cougars	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	–	–
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	–	–
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–0	–	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
3	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
5	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
6	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
7	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
8	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
9	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
10	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
11	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
12	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
13	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
14	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
15	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
16	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
17	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
18	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
19	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
20	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
22	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
23	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
24	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
25	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
26	Mariners	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
27	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
28	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
29	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
30	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
31	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
32	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
33	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
34	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
35	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
36	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
38	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
39	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
40	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
42	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
43	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
44	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
45	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
49	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
50	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
54	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
55	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
59	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
60	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
46	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
47	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
48	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
51	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
52	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
53	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
56	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
57	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
58	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
61	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
62	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
63	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
65	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
66	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
67	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
68	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
69	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
70	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
71	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
72	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
73	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Dartmouth College	Big Green	James Paul '23 Robert Bragg '23 William Michels '25	Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Drew Clutterbuck '23 Reese Bragg '25
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Guthrie Braun '26 Liam O'Keefe '26 William George '23	Izzy Cox '23 Emily Mueller '25 Nora Ong '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Cooper Walshe '25 Gavin Mcjones '23 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Madeline Smith '24 Ellie Alex '26 Ryan Wahba '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Christopher Sharpless '23 Jordan Bruce '24 Samuel Gavula '24	Caroline Dannacher '25 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 Joshua Zeelander '24
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Noelle Owen '24 Anna Sherry '23 Lucy Klempen '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Nicholas Sessions '24 Will Murray '24	Rachel Duggan '25 Frances Depke '25 Tess Weber '23
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Richard Mccann '23 Steven Hardee '26	Dominic Canonico '23 Natalie Elder '25 Olivia Campmany '25 Teddy Bueres '24 James Nappo '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	David Pearce '23 Lucas Sawin '25 Michael Burns '25 William Weinbecker '25	Caelan Mcmichael '26 Andrew Dixon '26 Andrew Campbell '23 Rey Jacob Alino '25
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Ben Hosford '25 Brooks Turcotte '26 Spencer Barnes '24	Mark Modzelewski '23 Shawn Tirone '25 Eva Leggett '24
Cornell University	Big Red	Aidan Lane '24 Jack Merrill '24 Sophia Devling '26	Peter Jordan '23 Clara Hewson '24 Adler Weber '25 Isabel Dhar '23

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 86% · Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 45°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.0 kn

avg · max 15.2 kn

Gusts to 28.4 kn

From E (86°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain0.47 in Snow0.06 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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