Brown University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 72–39 (65%) as crew 4–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 22–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 5 | 49–21 | 4–0 |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (113 matches) the record is 74–39 against 68.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.50 | 3.43 | 13–1 | 12.0 | +0.93 | 0.6 | 34% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 2.69 | 7–8 | 6.6 | +0.19 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.51 | 1.60 | 6–7 | 8.5 | −0.91 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.31 | 4.30 | 18–3 | 12.2 | +1.99 | 7.9 | <1% |
| 2022-03-26 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | crew | 3.40 | 6.40 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.35 | 2.65 | 13–8 | 11.8 | +0.30 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 2.68 | 12–3 | 11.0 | +0.43 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 1.96 | 0.42 | 1–9 | 3.2 | −1.54 | 2.1 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.7 | 2.52 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Admiral Moore Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 88% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 9.1 | 3.22 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 2.50 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.9 | 3.19 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.3 | 2.19 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.2 | 3.32 |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 3.59 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | 2.60 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 63% | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 10.2 | 2.58 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts September Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 1.32 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | 2.98 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 2.66 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 2.78 |
| Chuck Fontaine Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.9 | 2.44 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
