Wood Trophy Team Race

HostHarvard
Date03/11/2023
TypeRegional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	15–0
2	Brown University	Bears 1	10–5
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–7
4	Brown University	Bears 2	7–8
5	Northeastern University	Huskies	9–5
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–6
7	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–9
8	Boston University	Terriers	4–10
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	4–10
10	Princeton University	Tigers	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,442 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 72 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.474 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.09 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	11.06 school +0.24, home +0.39	Mitchell Callahan / Grace Li Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 3.86 12–0 Eric Hansen / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.04 9–0 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Christopher Wang 3.92 9–0	90%	15–0 (100%)	+1.4
2	Brown University Bears 1	2	10.33 school +0.21	Connor Nelson / Izzy Cox 3.51 Guthrie Braun / Lily Shore 3.12 9–5 Liam O'Keefe / Nora Ong 8–5 Jed Bell / Nora Ong 2.92 2–0 Jed Bell / Lily Shore 2.86 1–0	76%	10–5 (67%)	−1.4
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	8.93	Maks Groom / Wendy Wu 2.91 8–6 Julius Heitkoetter / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.62 8–5 Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad 3.39 7–6 Julius Heitkoetter / Jemma Schroder 2.66 0–2 Sam Bruce / Nicholas Abate 3.44 1–1 Maks Groom / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.84 0–1	50%	8–7 (53%)	+0.5
4	Brown University Bears 2	7	8.53 school +0.21	Hunter Zonnenberg / Menasha Leport 2.93 William George / Hannah Sellers 2.50 Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 2.90 4–8 Mason Stang / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 2.71 3–0	44%	7–8 (47%)	+0.5
5	Northeastern University Huskies	8	7.21 school +0.21	Joshua Dillon / Sam Barrett 2.17 Adrian Winkelman / Andrew Wagner 2.08 Will Priebe / Rob Brower 2.66 7–5 Will Priebe / Zoe Grant 2.67 2–0	41%	9–5 (64%)	+3.3
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	7.91 school −0.07	Emily Bornarth / Mia Quinlan 2.95 Jack Derry / Daniel Neville 2.39 8–4 Emma Snead / Leonora Krajewski 2.61 5–3 Emma Snead / Laura Slovensky 2.61 3–3 Jack Derry / Aiana Cayao 2.26 0–2	55%	8–6 (57%)	+0.3
7	Tufts University Jumbos	5	7.67 school +0.13	Bryan Trammell / Leo Terry 2.68 Adrien Bellanger / Cecilia Adams 2.35 Jack Flores / Amelia Carlson 2.47	52%	5–9 (36%)	−2.2
8	Boston University Terriers	9	5.98	Elliott Mendenhall / Morgan Contrino 2.23 Gavin Monaghan / Lachlan Hooper 1.85 Porter Bell / Adam Elci 1.78	18%	4–10 (29%)	+1.5
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	7.97 school +0.27	George Higham / Callum Robbins 2.69 Jack Roman / Katharine Benagh 2.46 William Bailey / Ruby Hope 2.54	56%	4–10 (29%)	−3.8
10	Princeton University Tigers	10	5.71 school −0.16	Ossian Kamal / Skylor Wong Connor Mraz / Isabella Impalli 2.69 1–12 Asher Green / Calif Chen 1.91 1–10 Bryan Lawrence / Calif Chen 1.16 0–2 Connor Mraz / Berkley Yiu 2.68 1–0 Asher Green / Isabella Impalli 1.96 1–0	15%	2–12 (14%)	−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University Crimson	11.06	14.06	15–0	13.6	≥+3.00	2.1	21%
5	Northeastern University Huskies	7.21	8.57	9–5	5.7	+1.36	3.2	3%
8	Boston University Terriers	5.98	6.75	4–10	2.5	+0.77	0.9	21%
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8.93	9.16	8–7	7.5	+0.23	0.1	51%
4	Brown University Bears 2	8.53	8.72	7–8	6.6	+0.19	0.1	51%
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7.91	8.04	8–6	7.7	+0.13	0.0	55%
10	Princeton University Tigers	5.71	5.68	2–12	2.0	−0.03	0.0	65%
2	Brown University Bears 1	10.33	9.56	10–5	11.4	−0.77	0.8	93%
7	Tufts University Jumbos	7.67	6.71	5–9	7.2	−0.97	1.5	96%
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	7.97	6.36	4–10	7.8	−1.61	4.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Eric Hansen	Harvard University	3.04	6.04	9–0	8.5	≥+3.00	0.7	58%
Jed Bell	Brown University	2.92	5.92	3–0	2.8	≥+3.00	0.3	83%
Will Priebe	Northeastern University	2.66	4.02	9–5	5.7	+1.36	3.2	3%
Joshua Dillon	Northeastern University	2.17	3.53	9–5	5.7	+1.36	3.2	3%
Adrian Winkelman	Northeastern University	2.08	3.44	9–5	5.7	+1.36	3.2	3%
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.23	3.00	4–10	2.5	+0.77	0.9	21%
Gavin Monaghan	Boston University	1.85	2.62	4–10	2.5	+0.77	0.9	21%
William George	Brown University	2.50	2.69	7–8	6.6	+0.19	0.1	51%
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.39	2.52	8–6	7.7	+0.13	0.0	55%
Asher Green	Princeton University	1.91	1.98	2–10	1.9	+0.07	0.0	61%
Connor Mraz	Princeton University	2.69	2.66	2–12	2.0	−0.03	0.0	65%
Ossian Kamal	Princeton University	1.14	1.10	2–12	2.0	−0.03	0.0	65%
Bryan Trammell	Tufts University	2.68	1.71	5–9	7.2	−0.97	1.5	96%
Adrien Bellanger	Tufts University	2.35	1.38	5–9	7.2	−0.97	1.5	96%
George Higham	Roger Williams University	2.69	1.08	4–10	7.8	−1.61	4.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers	85%
1	2	Northeastern University Huskies	Roger Williams University Hawks	31%	upset
1	3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears 2	59%
1	4	Brown University Bears 1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	93%
1	5	Harvard University Crimson	Princeton University Tigers	99%
1	6	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks	42%	upset
1	7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Boston University Terriers	95%
1	8	Brown University Bears 1	Northeastern University Huskies	95%
1	9	Brown University Bears 2	Princeton University Tigers	94%
1	10	Harvard University Crimson	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	95%
1	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Roger Williams University Hawks	72%
1	12	Brown University Bears 1	Tufts University Jumbos	89%
1	13	Boston University Terriers	Princeton University Tigers	55%
1	14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	67%
1	15	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears 2	89%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears 1	18%	upset
1	17	Roger Williams University Hawks	Princeton University Tigers	90%
1	18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	56%
1	19	Brown University Bears 2	Boston University Terriers	93%
1	20	Harvard University Crimson	Northeastern University Huskies	97%
1	21	Brown University Bears 1	Princeton University Tigers	99%
1	22	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	25%	upset
1	23	Brown University Bears 2	Roger Williams University Hawks	65%
1	24	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos	38%	upset
1	25	Harvard University Crimson	Boston University Terriers	99%
1	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Princeton University Tigers	89%
1	27	Brown University Bears 1	Brown University Bears 2	86%
1	28	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Northeastern University Huskies	85%
1	29	Boston University Terriers	Roger Williams University Hawks	12%	upset
1	30	Harvard University Crimson	Tufts University Jumbos	96%
1	31	Brown University Bears 2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	66%
1	32	Northeastern University Huskies	Princeton University Tigers	80%
1	33	Brown University Bears 1	Boston University Terriers	98%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Tufts University Jumbos	78%
1	35	Harvard University Crimson	Roger Williams University Hawks	94%
1	36	Brown University Bears 2	Northeastern University Huskies	76%
1	37	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Boston University Terriers	87%
1	38	Tufts University Jumbos	Princeton University Tigers	93%
1	39	Brown University Bears 1	Roger Williams University Hawks	92%
1	40	Harvard University Crimson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	93%
1	41	Northeastern University Huskies	Boston University Terriers	77%
1	42	Brown University Bears 2	Tufts University Jumbos	67%
1	43	Roger Williams University Hawks	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	51%
1	44	Princeton University Tigers	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5%	upset
1	45	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears 1	76%
4	46	Brown University Bears 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	82%
4	47	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears 2	89%
4	48	Brown University Bears 1	Brown University Bears 2	87%
4	49	Harvard University Crimson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	93%
4	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears 2	59%
4	51	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears 1	76%
4	67	Brown University Bears 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	82%
4	68	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears 2	90%
4	69	Brown University Bears 2	Brown University Bears 1	13%	upset
4	70	Harvard University Crimson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	93%
4	71	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears 2	59%
4	72	Harvard University Crimson	Brown University Bears 1	76%
6	52	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos	39%	upset
6	53	Boston University Terriers	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	13%	upset
6	54	Princeton University Tigers	Roger Williams University Hawks	11%	upset
6	55	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	56%
6	56	Northeastern University Huskies	Princeton University Tigers	79%
6	57	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	88%
6	58	Tufts University Jumbos	Princeton University Tigers	93%
6	59	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	49%	upset
6	60	Northeastern University Huskies	Boston University Terriers	77%
6	61	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Princeton University Tigers	88%
6	62	Northeastern University Huskies	Roger Williams University Hawks	33%	upset
6	63	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers	84%
6	64	Northeastern University Huskies	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	34%	upset
6	65	Boston University Terriers	Princeton University Tigers	52%
6	66	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos	57%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	1	Engineers	2	Huskies	Bears	Jumbos	Terriers	Hawks	Tigers
Harvard University Crimson	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears 1	13–5	L	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–3	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	L
Brown University Bears 2	13–5	L	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–4	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Princeton University Tigers	1–8	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Crimson	1	Engineers	2
Harvard University Crimson	6–0	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears 1	4–8	L	✕	L	✕
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–4	L	W	✕	W
Brown University Bears 2	4–8	L	✕	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Huskies	Bears	Jumbos	Terriers	Hawks	Tigers
Northeastern University Huskies	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Boston University Terriers	2–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–3	L	L	W	W	✕	L
Princeton University Tigers	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
2	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
3	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears 2	1-5-6
4	Bears 1	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
5	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
6	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
7	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
8	Bears 1	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
9	Bears 2	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
10	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
11	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
12	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
13	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Tigers	2-5-6
14	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
15	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears 2	4-5-6
16	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears 1	3-4-5
17	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Tigers	2-4-6
18	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
19	Bears 2	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
20	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
21	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6 DNF
22	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
23	Bears 2	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
24	Huskies	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
25	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
26	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Tigers	2-3-6
27	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Bears 2	4-5-6
28	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
29	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
30	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
31	Bears 2	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
32	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Tigers	1-5-6
33	Bears 1	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
34	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
35	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
36	Bears 2	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
37	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
38	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
39	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
40	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
41	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
42	Bears 2	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
43	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
44	Tigers	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5 DSQ
45	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears 1	4-5-6
46	Bears 1	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
47	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears 2	3-4-5
48	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Bears 2	3-4-6
49	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
50	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears 2	3-4-6
51	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears 1	1-5-6
67	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
68	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears 2	3-5-6
69	Bears 2	1-3-4	def.	Bears 1	2-5-6
70	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
71	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears 2	3-4-6
72	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears 1	3-5-6
52	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
53	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
54	Tigers	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
55	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
56	Huskies	2-3-5	def.	Tigers	1-4-6
57	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
58	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
59	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
60	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
61	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
62	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
63	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
64	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
65	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Tigers	1-4-6
66	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Eric Hansen '23 Justin Callahan '26 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 Mitchell Callahan '26	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Kennedy Leehealey '26 Christopher Wang '23 Grace Li '25
Brown University	Bears 1	Connor Nelson '24 Guthrie Braun '26 Jed Bell '23 Liam O'Keefe '26	Izzy Cox '23 Lily Shore '24 Nora Ong '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23 Jemma Schroder '24 Wendy Wu '23 Nicholas Abate '25 Maaya Prasad '22
Brown University	Bears 2	Hunter Zonnenberg '23 Leyton Borcherding '25 Mason Stang '25 William George '23	Menasha Leport '25 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Hannah Sellers '26
Northeastern University	Huskies	Adrian Winkelman '25 Joshua Dillon '25 Will Priebe '24	Andrew Wagner '26 Sam Barrett '26 Rob Brower '23 Zoe Grant '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Emily Bornarth '24 Emma Snead '23 Jack Derry '25	Mia Quinlan '24 Laura Slovensky '25 Leonora Krajewski '23 Daniel Neville '25 Aiana Cayao '26
Tufts University	Jumbos	Adrien Bellanger '25 Bryan Trammell '23 Jack Flores '25	Cecilia Adams '23 Leo Terry '25 Amelia Carlson '24
Boston University	Terriers	Elliott Mendenhall '25 Gavin Monaghan '26 Porter Bell '26	Morgan Contrino '24 Lachlan Hooper '25 Adam Elci '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	George Higham '23 Jack Roman '26 William Bailey '24	Callum Robbins '22 Katharine Benagh '24 Ruby Hope '25
Princeton University	Tigers	Asher Green '24 Bryan Lawrence '24 Connor Mraz '23 Ossian Kamal '26	Calif Chen '23 Isabella Impalli '22 Berkley Yiu '25 Skylor Wong '26

Conditions — 03/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1009.1 hPa

Temperature

37°F

↑ 38°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.4 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From NNE (24°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1009.1 hPa Rain0.04 in Snow0.03 in

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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