Emily Bornarth

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.84 (fleet 3.88)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	+0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 54–57 (49%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2024	3	15–16	—
Spring 2023	4	24–26	—
Spring 2022	2	6–9	—
Spring 2021	2	9–6	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 11 graded regattas (111 matches) the record is 54–57 against 50.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2024-04-13	NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy	skipper	3.09	3.59	4–6	3.1	+0.50	0.3	37%
2024-04-06	Bowdoin Women's Team Race	skipper	3.04	3.03	6–3	6.0	−0.01	0.0	66%
2024-03-16	Women's SNETR	skipper	2.97	3.36	5–7	4.2	+0.39	0.2	41%
2023-04-15	NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship	skipper	3.17	2.53	2–6	2.6	−0.65	0.3	88%
2023-04-01	Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy	skipper	3.03	5.01	7–6	2.5	+1.98	6.9	<1%
2023-03-11	Wood Trophy Team Race	skipper	2.95	3.09	8–6	7.7	+0.13	0.0	55%
2023-03-04	Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race	skipper	2.83	3.80	7–8	4.7	+0.98	1.6	12%
2022-04-02	Yale TR @ Connecticut College	skipper	2.64	2.15	3–3	3.6	−0.48	0.2	85%
2022-03-12	MIT Team Race Invite	skipper	2.80	0.94	3–6	6.2	−1.86	4.4	>99%
2021-03-20	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	2.25	2.18	5–4	5.1	−0.07	0.0	70%
2021-03-13	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	2.04	0.77	4–2	4.6	−1.27	0.5	97%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2024 Team page Season
Women's SNETR Women's	Skipper	TR	12	42%	—
Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's	Skipper	A	10	6.1	3.93
Bowdoin Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	9	67%	—
NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's	Skipper	TR	9	44%	—
Fall 2023 Team page Season
Yale Women's Regatta Women's	Skipper	A	12	6.2	4.16
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's	Skipper	A	12	9.7	3.77
The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	14	5.9	3.87
Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's	Skipper	A	9	5.4	3.63
Sherman Hoyt Trophy	Skipper	B	14	8.6	3.81
The Hatch Brown Trophy	Skipper	C	7	8.1	3.93
Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's	Skipper	A	17	5.9	4.11
Spring 2023 Team page Season
Wood Trophy Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	57%	—
College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's	Skipper	A	10	8.6	4.13
College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's	Skipper	A	8	4.9	4.57
Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	15	47%	—
NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	9	33%	—
NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	14	5.6	4.30
Emily Wick Women's	Skipper	A	7	2.0	5.45
Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's	Skipper	TR	11	54%	—
Fall 2022 Team page Season
Yale Women's Interconference Women's	Skipper	A	8	5.4	4.29
Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's	Skipper	A	9	8.4	4.08
Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.1	3.73
Victorian Urn Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	12	6.8	3.83
Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.4	3.77
The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.1	3.83
Spring 2022 Team page Season
Yale TR @ Connecticut College	Skipper	TR	8	62%	—
College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's	Skipper	A	11	11.2	3.29
College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's	Skipper	A	13	8.5	3.31
ODU Women's Women's	Skipper	A	13	5.5	1.88
NEISA Women's Championship Women's	Skipper	A	15	5.4	4.20
MIT Team Race Invite	Skipper	TR	8	38%	—
Emily Wick Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	15	4.5	4.03
Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy	Skipper	A	14	4.6	4.04
Admirals Cup	Skipper	A	17	8.5	3.80
Fall 2021 Team page Season
Women's ACC's Round 1A Women's	Skipper	A	13	9.3	3.07
Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's	Skipper	A	14	8.7	2.75
Stu Nelson Women's	Skipper	A	12	7.4	2.98
The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	A	13	7.9	3.41
2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's	Skipper	A	18	9.2	3.71
The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	16	5.7	3.98
Spring 2021 Team page Season
Thompson Trophy	Skipper	A	10	8.5	3.51
Southern New England Team Race	Skipper	TR	9	56%	—
2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's	Skipper	A	16	11.1	2.89
New England Women's Championship Women's	Skipper	A	8	7.6	2.16
Hap Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	71%	—
CGA Invite	Skipper	A	7	10.9	3.28
Fall 2020 Team page Season
Superintendents' Trophy - Dinghy	Skipper	A	10	10.4	2.62

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Emily Bornarth	South Fork High School	'20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →