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Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 15–0
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 11–4
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7–8
4 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 6–9
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 4–11
6 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.382 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		111.03
school +0.44		Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.50
Hannah Freeman / Patricia Gerli 3.34
Vanessa Lahrkamp / Abigail Tindall 3.73		97%15–0 (100%)+0.5
2Tulane University
Green Wave		28.47Caroline Benson / Ellie Spearman 2.83
Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard 2.32
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Lydia Brown 3.32		65%11–4 (73%)+1.2
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy
Bears		46.76
school −0.11		Emily Bornarth / Mia Quinlan 2.83
Conneely Julia / Leonora Krajewski
Emma Snead / Laura Slovensky 2.52 5–7
Emma Snead / Lauren O'Neill 2.68 2–1		31%7–8 (47%)+2.3
4College of Charleston
Cougars		38.25
school +0.58		Grace Squires / Kalea Woodard 2.56
Emma Tallman / Roxanne Snyder 2.46
Emily Alfortish / Chloe Hudgins		61%6–9 (40%)−3.2
5University of South Florida
Bulls		56.39Emma Shakespeare / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 2.31
Sydney Monahan / Olivia Smith 2.27
Heidi Hicks / Saleta Powell 1.79 3–9
Kay Brunsvold / Saleta Powell 1–2		24%4–11 (27%)+0.4
6Jacksonville University
Fins		66.32Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.67
Kaitlyn Liebel / Kayla Putzke 1.71
Agija Elerte / Ella Bilow 1.84		22%2–13 (13%)−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University11.0314.0315–014.5≥+3.000.761%
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy6.767.747–84.7+0.981.612%
2Tulane University8.479.2011–49.7+0.730.630%
5University of South Florida6.396.594–113.6+0.190.150%
6Jacksonville University6.325.602–133.3−0.710.690%
4College of Charleston8.256.906–99.2−1.353.299%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Hannah FreemanStanford University3.346.3415–014.5≥+3.000.761%
Conneely JuliaU. S. Coast Guard Academy1.282.267–84.7+0.981.612%
Mia HanesTulane University2.323.0511–49.7+0.730.630%
Ciara Rodriguez-HoranTulane University3.324.0611–49.7+0.730.630%
Agija ElerteJacksonville University1.841.132–133.3−0.710.690%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Stanford UniversityJacksonville University99%
12Tulane UniversityCollege of Charleston59%
13U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of South Florida55%
14College of CharlestonJacksonville University87%
15Stanford UniversityUniversity of South Florida99%
16Tulane UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy87%
17University of South FloridaCollege of Charleston14%upset
18Tulane UniversityJacksonville University90%
19Stanford UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy99%
110Tulane UniversityUniversity of South Florida87%
111Stanford UniversityCollege of Charleston94%
112U. S. Coast Guard AcademyJacksonville University63%
113Stanford UniversityTulane University93%
114Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida49%upset
115College of CharlestonU. S. Coast Guard Academy82%
216Stanford UniversityJacksonville University99%
217Tulane UniversityCollege of Charleston56%
218U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of South Florida59%
219College of CharlestonJacksonville University87%
220Stanford UniversityUniversity of South Florida99%
221Tulane UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy85%
222College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida87%
223Tulane UniversityJacksonville University90%
224Stanford UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy99%
225Tulane UniversityUniversity of South Florida86%
226Stanford UniversityCollege of Charleston94%
227Jacksonville UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy36%upset
228Stanford UniversityTulane University93%
229University of South FloridaJacksonville University50%
230U. S. Coast Guard AcademyCollege of Charleston18%upset
331Stanford UniversityJacksonville University99%
332College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida88%
333Tulane UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy84%
334Stanford UniversityUniversity of South Florida99%
335U. S. Coast Guard AcademyJacksonville University65%
336Tulane UniversityCollege of Charleston54%
337Stanford UniversityU. S. Coast Guard Academy99%
338University of South FloridaTulane University14%upset
339College of CharlestonJacksonville University88%
340U. S. Coast Guard AcademyUniversity of South Florida62%
341Tulane UniversityJacksonville University89%
342Stanford UniversityCollege of Charleston94%
343University of South FloridaJacksonville University49%upset
344U. S. Coast Guard AcademyCollege of Charleston18%upset
345Stanford UniversityTulane University93%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalWaveBearsCougarsBullsFins
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
Tulane University Green Wave4–1L✕WWWW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2–3LL✕LWW
College of Charleston Cougars2–3LLW✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls1–4LLLW✕L
Jacksonville University Fins1–4LLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalWaveBearsCougarsBullsFins
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
Tulane University Green Wave4–1L✕WWWW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears2–3LL✕WWL
College of Charleston Cougars2–3LLL✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls1–4LLLL✕W
Jacksonville University Fins1–4LLWLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CardinalWaveBearsCougarsBullsFins
Stanford University Cardinal5–0✕WWWWW
Tulane University Green Wave3–2L✕WWLW
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears3–2LL✕WWW
College of Charleston Cougars2–3LLL✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls2–3LWLL✕W
Jacksonville University Fins0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
2 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
4 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
5 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
6 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
7 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 2-4-5
8 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
10 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
11 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
12 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
13 Stanford University Cardinal 1-3-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 2-4-6
14 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
15 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
17 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1-5-6
18 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
19 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
21 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4-5-6
22 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
23 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
25 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
26 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. College of Charleston Cougars 4-5-6
27 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
28 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
29 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
30 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-3-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1-4-6
31 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
32 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
33 Tulane University Green Wave 2-3-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-5-6
34 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
35 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
36 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-5-6
37 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3-5-6
38 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-6
39 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
40 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
41 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
42 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-6
43 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
44 U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1-5-6
45 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-4-5

Conditions — 03/04/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1010.6 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1010.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →