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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 31 31
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 31 31
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 32 32
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 47 47
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 55 55
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5 57 57
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 58 58
8 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 6 58 58
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 59 59
10 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7 76 76
11 Brown University Brown University Bears 6 79 79
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 84 84
13 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 8 86 86
14 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 10 90 90
15 Brown University Brown University Bears 5 90 90
16 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 97 97
17 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 9 100 100
18 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 101 101
19 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 113 113
20 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 127 127
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 6 6 5 6 4 2 2 31 Olivia Belda '22
Annabelle Hutchinson '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 7 5 1 2 5 6 5 31 Gage Schoenherr '21
Christina Nothacker '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 3 1 7 1 1 8 11 32 Jack Murphy '22
Madeleine Mcgrath '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 1 14 6 10 10 5 1 47 Walter Gnann '21
Brian Nelson '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 4 8 8 8 2 19 6 55 Tucker Weed '22
Emma Montgomery '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5 12 17 2 4 12 1 9 57 Nathan Olmsted '23
Charles Mason '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 2 19 19 9 3 3 3 58 Richie Gordon '21
Lauren O'Neill '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 6 9 3 3 5 14 14 10 58 Daniel Unangst '24
Jack Farrell '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 8 9 4 13 7 10 8 59 Samuel Merson '22
Ann Sheridan '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7 5 15 9 12 15 13 7 76 Emily Bornarth '24
Mary Tran '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 17 11 15 3 6 11 16 79 Elizabeth Rolfes '21 [1-3, 7]
Connor Macken '24 [4-6]
Nora Ong '23 [1-3, 7]
Elizabeth Rolfes '21 [4-6]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 OCS 2 17 11 9 9 15 84 Charlie Hibben '22
Celia Byrne '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 8 10 4 11 19 20 18 4 86 Michael Pinto '23 [1-7]
Jin Johnson '23 [1-3, 7]
Mia Quinlan '24 [4-6]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 10 11 7 16 16 19 7 14 90 Annie Buelt '24
Casey Gale '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 13 13 12 17 11 4 20 90 Hunter Zonnenberg '23
Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 15 10 13 7 18 17 17 97 Caroline Bayless '23
Madeleine Montagner '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 9 16 20 14 15 8 15 12 100 Emma Snead '23
Leonora Krajewski '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 14 12 10 18 17 12 18 101 Abbie Carlson '22
Jessica Friedman '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 19 16 18 14 13 20 13 113 Matthew Kickhafer '23
Sydney Motherway '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 18 18 20 20 16 16 19 127 Chloe Holder '23
Mallory Hood '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 11111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 22222222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 33333333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 44444444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 55555555
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 66666666
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 111111111111111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1020202020202020
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 212121212121212
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 313131313131313
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 414141414141414
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 515151515151515
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 616161616161616
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 717171717171717
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 818181818181818
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 919191919191919
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 17777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 28888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 39999999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 410101010101010

Conditions — 05/15/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 35%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From WSW (236°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Coast Guard: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.19 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.26
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →