Brown University '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 46.53 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.093 rating points from 136 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.76 (fleet 2.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–12 (37%) as crew 38–44 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 15–5 |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 3–1 | 6–5 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | — | 5–1 |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | — | 12–33 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (101 matches) the record is 45–56 against 52.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-14 | Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | skipper | 2.19 | 1.98 | 2–7 | 2.3 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2021-04-24 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.09 | 2.19 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | crew | 2.88 | 2.60 | 15–5 | 15.8 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 1.72 | 2.83 | 3–1 | 2.1 | +1.11 | 0.7 | 33% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | crew | 1.72 | 2.28 | 6–5 | 4.8 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | crew | 2.41 | 3.97 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.57 | 1.7 | 15% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | crew | 2.19 | 0.89 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | crew | 2.19 | 2.03 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.16 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | crew | 2.40 | 0.13 | 2–12 | 8.0 | −2.27 | 8.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.3 | 2.39 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.9 | 0.49 |
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Crew | TR | 22 | 77% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 19 | 63% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.4 | 2.13 |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.0 | -0.04 |
| Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 4.4 | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | 1.34 |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 4.4 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 1.75 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.6 | 2.97 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 15.2 | 1.35 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 2.50 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 8.0 | — |
| Southern Series at URI | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | -1.74 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| BC Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 4.2 | — |
| Southern 5 | Crew | A | 5 | 9.6 | — |
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | B | 7 | 8.4 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Crew | A | 8 | 11.0 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A, B | 14 | 7.0 | — |
| Central Series | Crew | B | 8 | 10.2 | — |
| Central | Crew | B | 12 | 4.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Elizabeth Rolfes |  Bainbridge High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
