| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brown University | Bears 1 | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 4–5 |
| 3 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 3–6 |
| 4 | |
Brown University | Bears 2 | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,718 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.426 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.37 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 81% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University Bears 1 | 1 | 10.26 school +0.23, home +0.34 | Jack Murphy / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.41 Tucker Weed / Madeleine Montagner 2.90 Olivia Belda / Annabelle Hutchinson 3.36 6–0 Olivia Belda / Emma Montgomery 3.39 3–0 | 82% | 9–0 (100%) | +1.6 |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 2 | 9.43 school +0.17 | Charlie Hibben / Celia Byrne 3.02 Alex Fasolo / Juliana Testa 3.02 Samuel Merson / Ann Sheridan 3.19 | 62% | 4–5 (44%) | −1.6 |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3 | 8.28 school +0.17 | Connor Sheridan / Amelia Carlson 2.67 Patrick Mulcahy / George Sidamon-Eristoff Trevor Davis / Lindsay Powers | 30% | 3–6 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 4 | Brown University Bears 2 | 4 | 8.11 school +0.23, home +0.34 | Hunter Zonnenberg / Catherine Mcclenahan 2.35 Elizabeth Rolfes / Mo Liu 2.19 Caroline Bayless / Nora Ong 2.98 | 26% | 2–7 (22%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University Bears 1 | 10.26 | 13.26 | 9–0 | 7.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 16% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 8.28 | 8.45 | 3–6 | 2.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 4 | Brown University Bears 2 | 8.11 | 7.90 | 2–7 | 2.3 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 9.43 | 8.57 | 4–5 | 5.6 | −0.87 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Belda | Brown University | 3.36 | 6.36 | 9–0 | 7.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 16% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | Tufts University | 2.28 | 2.45 | 3–6 | 2.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Charlie Hibben | Tufts University | 3.02 | 2.15 | 4–5 | 5.6 | −0.87 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Alex Fasolo | Tufts University | 3.02 | 2.16 | 4–5 | 5.6 | −0.87 | 1.0 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears 1 | 4–2 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Brown University Bears 2 | 4–2 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears 1 | 4–2 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 2–4 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Brown University Bears 2 | 4–2 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears 1 | 3–3 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–3 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–3 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L |
| Brown University Bears 2 | 3–3 | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brown University | Bears 1 | Jack Murphy '22 Olivia Belda '22 Tucker Weed '22 |
Madeleine Mcgrath '22 Emma Montgomery '22 Annabelle Hutchinson '21 Madeleine Montagner '22 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Alex Fasolo '22 Charlie Hibben '22 Samuel Merson '22 |
Juliana Testa '21 Celia Byrne '24 Ann Sheridan '22 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Connor Sheridan '22 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Trevor Davis '24 |
Amelia Carlson '24 George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 Lindsay Powers '21 |
|
Brown University | Bears 2 | Caroline Bayless '23 Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Hunter Zonnenberg '23 |
Nora Ong '23 Mo Liu '22 Catherine Mcclenahan '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
