Brown University '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 45.24 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.104 rating points from 56 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.81 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 24 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.78 (fleet 3.75) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 140–72 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 7 | 68–31 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 6 | 68–30 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 15 graded regattas (212 matches) the record is 140–72 against 133.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.16 | 3.62 | 11–8 | 9.4 | +0.46 | 0.5 | 28% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 3.00 | 3.39 | 10–6 | 8.7 | +0.39 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2023-04-08 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 3.70 | 11–5 | 9.1 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.92 | 4.45 | 13–2 | 9.8 | +1.54 | 3.3 | 4% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 2.85 | 3.35 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.49 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.01 | 4.24 | 9–2 | 7.4 | +1.23 | 1.4 | 18% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 1.27 | 3–4 | 4.7 | −1.67 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.87 | 3.43 | 11–5 | 9.3 | +0.56 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.01 | 2.80 | 13–6 | 13.6 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 3.11 | 2.05 | 12–9 | 16.0 | −1.06 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 3.16 | 3.59 | 9–1 | 8.6 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2022-03-19 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 3.26 | 3.00 | 12–5 | 12.8 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2022-03-05 | Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT | skipper | 3.17 | 3.53 | 11–4 | 10.0 | +0.36 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2021-05-14 | Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | skipper | 2.98 | 2.77 | 2–7 | 2.3 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2021-04-24 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.98 | 3.08 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 3.64 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 4.17 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.1 | 4.02 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.4 | 3.10 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 3.61 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 3.90 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.0 | 2.59 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.1 | 3.46 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 4.15 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 3.15 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.1 | 3.81 |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.7 | 4.13 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.2 | 3.71 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 85% | — |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 68% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 4.2 | 4.07 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.8 | 3.93 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 2.79 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 5 | 10.4 | 3.09 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.3 | 4.37 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.2 | 4.27 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.8 | 3.73 |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.2 | 0.81 |
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.9 | 2.55 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.5 | 2.76 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 6.2 | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 3.2 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 5.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.9 | 3.27 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 5.4 | — |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Crew | B | 8 | 11.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caroline Bayless |  Severn School |
'19 |
| ISSA | Caroline Bayless |  unregistered-massa |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
