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Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 11–4
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 11–4
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 10–5
4 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 8–7
5 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 3–12
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 45 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.542 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		19.57
school +0.22		Megan Grimes / Meredith Ryan 2.77 10–2
Emma Cowles / Becca Rose 7–2
Carmen Cowles / Ximena Escobar 6–3
Carmen Cowles / Helena Ware 5–1
Emma Cowles / Helena Ware 4–2
Megan Grimes / Becca Rose 2.87 1–2		79%11–4 (73%)−0.8
2Brown University
Bears		29.09
school +0.15		Brielle Willoughby / Catherine Morrissette 2.92
Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 2.81
Caroline Bayless / Nora Ong 3.17		67%11–4 (73%)+1.0
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers 1		48.27
school −0.11		Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 2.84
Brooke Schmelz / Grace Mao
Kaila Pfrang / Maile Jim 2.65 7–5
Kaila Pfrang / Veronika Silkin 2.67 3–0		45%10–5 (67%)+3.2
4Harvard University
Crimson		38.29
home +0.35		Cordelia Burn / Cindy Tian
Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri
Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.84		47%8–7 (53%)+1.0
5Dartmouth College
Big Green		58.15
school +0.23		Taylor Eastman / Eliza Crocker 2.71
Gray Hemans / Caroline Oyster 2.86
Sarah Young / Reese Bragg		44%3–12 (20%)−3.5
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers 2		67.15
school −0.11		Lulu Russell / Zoe Fisher 2.39
Emily Scherer / Sophie Yang 2.23 0–9
Lucy Brock / Wendy Wu 2.63 2–7
Lucy Brock / Mercedes Escandon 2.54 0–6
Emily Scherer / Mercedes Escandon 2.18 2–4		19%2–13 (13%)−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 18.279.3010–56.8+1.032.36%
2Brown University Bears9.099.4511–410.0+0.360.339%
4Harvard University Crimson8.298.608–77.0+0.310.239%
1Yale University Bulldogs9.579.2711–411.8−0.300.280%
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 27.156.722–132.8−0.430.381%
5Dartmouth College Big Green8.156.853–126.6−1.303.199%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Cordelia BurnHarvard University2.062.378–77.0+0.310.239%
Sarah BurnHarvard University2.843.158–77.0+0.310.239%
Emma CowlesYale University3.052.7511–411.8−0.300.280%
Carmen CowlesYale University3.252.9511–411.8−0.300.280%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard University CrimsonDartmouth College Big Green53%
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Brown University Bears30%upset
13Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 289%
17Brown University BearsHarvard University Crimson71%
18Yale University BulldogsDartmouth College Big Green79%
19Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 276%
113Harvard University CrimsonYale University Bulldogs21%upset
114Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 287%
115Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Dartmouth College Big Green54%
119Brown University BearsYale University Bulldogs37%upset
120Dartmouth College Big GreenMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 274%
121Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 151%
125Brown University BearsDartmouth College Big Green71%
126Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 180%
127Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2Harvard University Crimson23%upset
24Dartmouth College Big GreenHarvard University Crimson47%upset
25Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Brown University Bears30%upset
26Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 290%
210Brown University BearsHarvard University Crimson71%
211Yale University BulldogsDartmouth College Big Green79%
212Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 276%
216Harvard University CrimsonYale University Bulldogs21%upset
217Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 287%
218Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Dartmouth College Big Green53%
222Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears63%
223Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2Dartmouth College Big Green26%upset
224Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 151%
228Brown University BearsDartmouth College Big Green71%
229Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 180%
230Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 277%
331Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears65%
332Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Harvard University Crimson48%upset
333Dartmouth College Big GreenMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 275%
334Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Yale University Bulldogs19%upset
335Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 287%
336Harvard University CrimsonDartmouth College Big Green54%
337Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 293%
338Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Dartmouth College Big Green51%
339Brown University BearsHarvard University Crimson67%
340Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 275%
341Brown University BearsDartmouth College Big Green70%
342Yale University BulldogsHarvard University Crimson79%
343Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 169%
344Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 278%
345Yale University BulldogsDartmouth College Big Green80%

Round 1

TeamRec.BulldogsBears1CrimsonGreen2
Yale University Bulldogs3–2✕LWLWW
Brown University Bears4–1W✕WWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 14–6LL✕WL✕
Harvard University Crimson3–2WLL✕WL
Dartmouth College Big Green1–4LLWL✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 24–6LL✕WL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BulldogsBears1CrimsonGreen2
Yale University Bulldogs4–1✕WWLWW
Brown University Bears3–2L✕WWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 14–6LL✕LW✕
Harvard University Crimson3–2WLW✕LW
Dartmouth College Big Green1–4LLLW✕L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 24–6LL✕LW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BulldogsBears1CrimsonGreen2
Yale University Bulldogs4–1✕WWWWW
Brown University Bears4–1L✕WWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 14–6LL✕LW✕
Harvard University Crimson2–3LLW✕WW
Dartmouth College Big Green1–4LLLL✕L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 24–6LL✕LW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
3 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 4-5-6
7 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
8 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 4-5-6
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3-4-6
13 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-5-6
14 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2-5-6
15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-3-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-6
19 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
20 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3-4-6
21 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 3-4-5
25 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6
26 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 4-5-6
27 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
4 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-5-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
6 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2-5-6
10 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
11 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3-4-6
16 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-6
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 4-5-6
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-5-6
22 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
23 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2-3-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-4-6
24 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 3-5-6
28 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-5
29 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 3-4-6
30 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 1-5-6
31 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
32 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
33 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3-5-6
34 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-3-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-5
35 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3-5-6
36 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
37 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 4-5-6
38 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
39 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-5
40 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3-4-6
41 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-6
42 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-5-6
43 Brown University Bears 2-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1-4-5 DSQ
44 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-6 DNF def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2-4-5
45 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1032.3 hPa

Temperature

33°F
↑ 39°F   ↓ 20°F
Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From WSW (256°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1032.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →