Massachusetts Institute of Technology '23
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.07 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 20 | Fall 2022 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.09 (fleet 2.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 48–56 (46%) as crew 9–3 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 8 | 27–16 | 9–3 |
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 13–33 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 8–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (111 matches) the record is 53–58 against 52.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.98 | 2.42 | 2–3 | 2.7 | −0.56 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2023-04-08 | Yale Women's Team Race | crew | 2.79 | 5.79 | 4–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | crew | 2.79 | 5.79 | 3–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 39% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 2.31 | 2.24 | 5–5 | 5.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2023-03-18 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 1.57 | 6–6 | 7.6 | −0.85 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2023-03-11 | Franny Charles Women’s Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.34 | 2.65 | 8–1 | 7.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.45 | 3.09 | 4–3 | 3.3 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.22 | 1.82 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2022-03-19 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.27 | 1.95 | 7–10 | 8.0 | −0.32 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.31 | -0.69 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| 2022-03-05 | Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT | skipper | 2.23 | 1.80 | 2–13 | 2.8 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 81% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.71 | 2.99 | 8–7 | 4.0 | +1.28 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Crew | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Franny Charles Women’s Team Race Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 2.21 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 3.13 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | C | 12 | 6.4 | 3.06 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.5 | 3.47 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 1.62 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 13 | 54% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.2 | 3.15 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.3 | 2.64 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.0 | 2.54 |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.4 | 1.75 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.5 | 2.26 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.6 | 2.40 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 2.16 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 10.2 | 2.19 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | 1.01 |
| Harvard Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 2.38 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Emily Scherer |  Oshkosh North High School |
'20 |
| ISSA | Emily Scherer |  Catholic Memorial |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
