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NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Boston College Boston College Sophia Reineke '22 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 17
Harvard University Harvard University Sophia Montgomery '25 4 2 4 8 2 1 2 2 2 7 34
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sarah Young '25 3 4 6 6 4 3 3 6 3 1 39
Tufts University Tufts University Talia Toland '22 2 6 1 1 8 4 6 7 13 8 56
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Christine Reimer '24 11 11 2 5 3 9 4 3 9 5 62
Tufts University Tufts University Alexandra Talbot '22 5 8 5 2 6 12 7 5 4 11 65
Tufts University Tufts University Annika Fedde '23 8 7 8 7 9 5 8 4 6 9 71
Boston College Boston College Elizabeth Shanahan '23 6 5 10 4 7 8 5 8 11 10 74
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Brooke Schmelz '25 9 3 9 11 13 11 9 11 5 4 85
Connecticut College Connecticut College Aili Moffet '23 13 14 7 9 5 7 11 10 12 2 90
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emily Scherer '23 10 9 11 12 10 10 14 12 10 6 104
Brown University Brown University Blaire Mccarthy '23 7 12 14 10 12 6 12 13 8 12 106
Harvard University Harvard University Marleigh Belsley '24 14 10 12 14 14 14 13 9 7 14 121
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jemma Schroder '24 12 13 13 13 11 13 10 14 14 13 126

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  14 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Sophia Reineke '22Boston College Eagles 110/103.835.99+2.1694th → 99th8.71%1.7 / 4.7
2Sophia Montgomery '25Harvard University Crimson 110/103.574.18+0.6192nd → 97th1.115%3.4 / 5.0
3Sarah Young '25Dartmouth College10/102.674.04+1.3871st → 95th5.34%3.9 / 7.0
4Talia Toland '22Tufts University Jumbos 210/102.932.91−0.0279th → 79th0.034%5.6 / 6.5
5Christine Reimer '24Bowdoin College10/102.272.83+0.5659th → 77th1.025%6.2 / 7.7
6Alexandra Talbot '22Tufts University Jumbos 310/102.402.77+0.3761st → 74th0.530%6.5 / 7.5
7Annika Fedde '23Tufts University Jumbos 110/102.312.80+0.4960th → 76th0.938%7.1 / 7.7
8Elizabeth Shanahan '23Boston College Eagles 210/102.262.64+0.3759th → 69th0.541%7.4 / 7.9
9Brooke Schmelz '25Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 310/102.302.08−0.2259th → 54th0.265%8.5 / 7.7
10Aili Moffet '23Connecticut College10/101.811.76−0.0444th → 43rd0.056%9.0 / 8.7
11Emily Scherer '23Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 110/101.831.58−0.2545th → 39th0.280%10.4 / 8.6
12Blaire Mccarthy '23Brown University10/102.311.30−1.0160th → 30th4.392%10.6 / 7.7
13Marleigh Belsley '24Harvard University Crimson 210/101.700.19−1.5142nd → 9th6.795%12.1 / 9.0
14Jemma Schroder '24Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 210/101.530.77−0.7638th → 18th2.297%12.6 / 9.2

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From NE (38°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →