Team Race Invite

HostHarvard
Date03/19/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson 2	13–0
2	Brown University	Bears	8–5
3	Harvard University	Crimson 1	6–7
4	Boston College	Eagles	4–9
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams	9–4
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 1	7–6
7	Northeastern University	Huskies	5–8
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 2	0–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,901 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 62 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.399 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.42 ± 0.25: an orderly event, more orderly than 87% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson 2	1	9.41 school +0.14, home +0.32	Dylan Ascencios / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.06 Eric Hansen / Ariel Wang 2.66 Jonas Nelle / Cassia Lee 3.20	75%	13–0 (100%)	+3.2
2	Brown University Bears	2	9.23 school +0.18	Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 2.92 Caroline Bayless / Nora Ong 3.26 Brielle Willoughby / Emilia Ruth 2.99 10–4 Emily Mueller / Francesca Edmands 2–1	75%	12–5 (71%)	−0.8
3	Harvard University Crimson 1	3	8.79 school +0.14, home +0.32	Cordelia Burn / Cindy Tian 2.45 Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri 2.88 Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.91	63%	9–8 (53%)	−1.8
4	Boston College Eagles	7	7.38 school +0.33	Graham Ness / Mikayla Mathieu 2.79 Chip Kreuzkamp / Lilly Mathieu 1.91 Francis Selldorff / Josie Warfield 2.24	31%	6–11 (35%)	+0.8
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	4	7.47 school −0.23	Meghan Haviland / Jack Honan 2.17 Kerem Erkmen / Edward Gary 3.15 Zachary Champney / Katie Coughlin 2.29	53%	10–7 (59%)	+0.9
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	5	7.27 school −0.07	Emily Scherer / Sophie Yang 2.27 Lucy Brock / Wendy Wu 2.72 Julia Wyatt / Zoe Fisher 2.27 5–7 Julia Wyatt / Jemma Schroder 2.28 2–3	47%	7–10 (41%)	−1.0
7	Northeastern University Huskies	6	6.67 school +0.15	Carter Brock / Isabella Welch 2.09 Everett Nash / Jack Denker 2.32 Joshua Dillon / Rob Brower 2.00	38%	5–8 (38%)	+0.1
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	8	5.32 school −0.07	Max Katz-Christy / Sarah Aaronson 1.83 Matthew Elliott / Karen Dreicer Liberman 2.35 Raymond Huffman / Yitian Zhu 1.04	12%	0–13 (0%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University Crimson 2	9.41	12.41	13–0	9.8	≥+3.00	5.5	2%
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	7.47	7.76	10–7	9.1	+0.29	0.2	41%
4	Boston College Eagles	7.38	7.67	6–11	5.2	+0.29	0.2	41%
7	Northeastern University Huskies	6.67	6.71	5–8	4.9	+0.03	0.0	60%
2	Brown University Bears	9.23	8.97	12–5	12.8	−0.26	0.1	78%
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	7.27	6.96	7–10	8.0	−0.32	0.2	80%
3	Harvard University Crimson 1	8.79	8.21	9–8	10.8	−0.57	0.7	91%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	5.32	2.32	0–13	1.5	≤−3.00	2.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	3.06	6.06	13–0	9.8	≥+3.00	5.5	2%
Eric Hansen	Harvard University	2.66	5.66	13–0	9.8	≥+3.00	5.5	2%
Jonas Nelle	Harvard University	3.20	6.20	13–0	9.8	≥+3.00	5.5	2%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	3.15	3.44	10–7	9.1	+0.29	0.2	41%
Zachary Champney	University of Rhode Island	2.29	2.58	10–7	9.1	+0.29	0.2	41%
Chip Kreuzkamp	Boston College	1.91	2.20	6–11	5.2	+0.29	0.2	41%
Joshua Dillon	Northeastern University	2.00	2.04	5–8	4.9	+0.03	0.0	60%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	2.45	1.88	9–8	10.8	−0.57	0.7	91%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.91	2.34	9–8	10.8	−0.57	0.7	91%
Emily Mueller	Brown University	2.07	1.19	2–1	2.4	−0.89	0.3	92%
Max Katz-Christy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.83	-1.17	0–13	1.5	≤−3.00	2.2	>99%
Raymond Huffman	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.04	-1.96	0–13	1.5	≤−3.00	2.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University Crimson 2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	90%
1	2	Harvard University Crimson 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	97%
1	3	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	94%
1	4	Boston College Eagles	University of Rhode Island Rams	48%	upset
1	5	Harvard University Crimson 2	Harvard University Crimson 1	66%
1	6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	Brown University Bears	10%	upset
1	7	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	90%
1	8	Boston College Eagles	Northeastern University Huskies	67%
1	9	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson 1	65%
1	10	Harvard University Crimson 2	University of Rhode Island Rams	88%
1	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	Northeastern University Huskies	65%
1	12	Boston College Eagles	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	89%
1	13	University of Rhode Island Rams	Brown University Bears	26%	upset
1	14	Harvard University Crimson 1	Northeastern University Huskies	89%
1	15	Harvard University Crimson 2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	98%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	Boston College Eagles	47%	upset
1	17	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	69%
1	18	Brown University Bears	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	96%
1	19	Harvard University Crimson 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	82%
1	20	Harvard University Crimson 2	Boston College Eagles	89%
1	21	Northeastern University Huskies	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	80%
1	22	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	55%
1	23	Harvard University Crimson 2	Brown University Bears	51%
1	24	Boston College Eagles	Harvard University Crimson 1	20%	upset
1	25	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	87%
1	26	Harvard University Crimson 2	Northeastern University Huskies	94%
1	27	Harvard University Crimson 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	79%
1	28	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	88%
1	29	Boston College Eagles	University of Rhode Island Rams	48%	upset
1	30	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson 1	65%
1	31	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	55%
1	32	Harvard University Crimson 1	Boston College Eagles	80%
1	33	Brown University Bears	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	89%
1	34	Harvard University Crimson 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	79%
1	35	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	88%
1	36	Harvard University Crimson 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	82%
1	37	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	75%
1	38	Boston College Eagles	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	53%
1	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	88%
1	42	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	69%
1	49	Northeastern University Huskies	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	35%	upset
1	50	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	90%
1	57	Northeastern University Huskies	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	79%
1	58	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	45%	upset
2	45	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	87%
2	46	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	69%
2	53	Northeastern University Huskies	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	36%	upset
2	54	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	89%
2	61	Northeastern University Huskies	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	79%
2	62	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	55%
4	39	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson 1	64%
4	40	Harvard University Crimson 2	Boston College Eagles	88%
4	43	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson 1	64%
4	44	Harvard University Crimson 2	Boston College Eagles	88%
4	47	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	88%
4	48	Harvard University Crimson 2	Harvard University Crimson 1	64%
4	51	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	88%
4	52	Harvard University Crimson 2	Harvard University Crimson 1	64%
4	55	Harvard University Crimson 1	Boston College Eagles	80%
4	56	Harvard University Crimson 2	Brown University Bears	50%
4	59	Harvard University Crimson 1	Boston College Eagles	80%
4	60	Harvard University Crimson 2	Brown University Bears	50%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	2	Bears	1	Eagles	Rams	1	Huskies	2
Harvard University Crimson 2	14–4	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–3	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson 1	14–4	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	7–7	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	6–18	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	✕
Northeastern University Huskies	3–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	6–18	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Rams	1	Huskies	2
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	1–5	L	✕	L	✕
Northeastern University Huskies	2–1	L	W	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	1–5	L	✕	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	2	Bears	1	Eagles
Harvard University Crimson 2	8–4	✕	W	✕	W
Brown University Bears	4–2	L	✕	L	W
Harvard University Crimson 1	8–4	✕	W	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	0–6	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson 2	1-2-6	def.	Engineers 1	3-4-5
2	Crimson 1	1-2-3	def.	Engineers 2	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
4	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	Crimson 2	1-2-5	def.	Crimson 1	3-4-6
6	Engineers 1	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
7	Rams	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Engineers 2	3-5-6 DSQ
8	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6 RAF
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson 1	3-4-6
10	Crimson 2	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
11	Engineers 1	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
12	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-6
13	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
14	Crimson 1	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
15	Crimson 2	1-2-3	def.	Engineers 2	4-5-6
16	Engineers 1	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
17	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-6
19	Crimson 1	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 1	3-4-6
20	Crimson 2	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
21	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-5
22	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Engineers 1	4-5-6
23	Crimson 2	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
24	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Crimson 1	1-4-6
25	Engineers 1	1-2-4	def.	Engineers 2	3-5-6
26	Crimson 2	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
27	Crimson 1	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
28	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
29	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
30	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson 1	2-4-6
31	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Engineers 1	3-4-5
32	Crimson 1	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 1	3-4-6
34	Crimson 1	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
35	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
36	Crimson 1	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 1	3-4-6
37	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
38	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers 1	3-5-6
41	Engineers 1	1-2-6	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-5
42	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
49	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Engineers 1	3-4-5
50	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Engineers 2	2-5-6
57	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Engineers 2	3-5-6
58	Engineers 1	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
45	Engineers 1	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-6
46	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
53	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Engineers 1	1-5-6
54	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-5
61	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Engineers 2	3-4-6
62	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Engineers 1	3-5-6
39	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Crimson 1	2-5-6
40	Crimson 2	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
43	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson 1	3-4-5
44	Crimson 2	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
47	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
48	Crimson 2	1-2-4	def.	Crimson 1	3-5-6
51	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
52	Crimson 2	1-2-4	def.	Crimson 1	3-5-6
55	Crimson 1	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
56	Crimson 2	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
59	Crimson 1	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
60	Crimson 2	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson 2	Dylan Ascencios '24 Eric Hansen '23 Jonas Nelle '22	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Ariel Wang '23 Cassia Lee '23
Brown University	Bears	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Brielle Willoughby '24 Caroline Bayless '23 Emily Mueller '25	Savannah Young '25 Emilia Ruth '23 Nora Ong '23 Francesca Edmands '25
Harvard University	Crimson 1	Cordelia Burn '25 Marbella Marlo '24 Sarah Burn '24	Cindy Tian '23 Juliana Ruggieri '23 Corinne Lee '23
Boston College	Eagles	Chip Kreuzkamp '24 Francis Selldorff '23 Graham Ness '23	Lilly Mathieu '23 Josie Warfield '23 Mikayla Mathieu '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Kerem Erkmen '25 Meghan Haviland '22 Zachary Champney '22	Edward Gary '22 Jack Honan '23 Katie Coughlin '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 1	Emily Scherer '23 Julia Wyatt '21 Lucy Brock '25	Sophie Yang '24 Zoe Fisher '23 Jemma Schroder '24 Wendy Wu '23
Northeastern University	Huskies	Carter Brock '22 Everett Nash '24 Joshua Dillon '25	Isabella Welch '25 Jack Denker '22 Rob Brower '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 2	Matthew Elliott '24 Max Katz-Christy '25 Raymond Huffman '21	Karen Dreicer Liberman '24 Sarah Aaronson '23 Yitian Zhu '25

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 95% · Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.2 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From E (94°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1012.2 hPa Rain0.33 in

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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