Northeastern University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 46.32 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 18 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 0.96 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 (fleet 2.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–34 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 10–24 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 10–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 20–34 against 16.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.09 | 2.12 | 5–8 | 4.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.01 | 1.56 | 5–16 | 6.5 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.47 | 2.82 | 10–10 | 5.4 | +1.35 | 4.7 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.8 | 1.54 |
| Southern 5 Fleet Race/Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 1.04 |
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 2.02 |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 24% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 7.2 | — |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.8 | 2.45 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 2.30 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.1 | -0.84 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.0 | 0.65 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.0 | 2.14 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.7 | 2.42 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 3.09 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.4 | 0.03 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 2.48 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.2 | -0.07 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.6 | 2.64 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.9 | 2.27 |
| Chuck Fontaine Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 1.95 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | B | 20 | 9.3 | -0.85 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 1.04 |
| Central Series #1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.4 | 1.40 |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.0 | -0.03 |
| Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 1.19 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Priddy Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 3.1 | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.0 | — |
| Central 3 at URI | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.0 | — |
| Central 2 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.6 | 1.99 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.8 | 0.13 |
| Richard Ross College Bowl 2017 Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 0.21 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.4 | -0.13 |
| Bobby Berliner Trophy for Midweek Firefly Series | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.7 | 1.41 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Carter Brock |  Cape Elizabeth High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
