Central 3 at URI

HostRhode Island
Date03/31/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	University of Rhode Island	Rams 1	82
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams 2	109
3	University of Rhode Island	Rams 4	167
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams 3	200
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams 5	205
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	213
7	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	217
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	225
9	Northeastern University	Huskies	294

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2 A	2	2	7	3	1	3	1	1	2	2	24	Luke Ingalls '21 Ellis Havelock '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1 A	8	3	1	1	6	1	3	4	12	1	40	Brendan Read '19 Lauren Richards '19
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1 B	3	8	8	5	2	5	4	2	1	4	42	Dakota Northrup '19 [1-10] Caroline Rocchio '20 [1-8] Ryan Geib '19 [9-10]
Tufts University	Jumbos A	6	1	6	2	5	9	2	10	4	6	51	Tyler Paige '18 Duke Saunders '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams 4 A	5	5	3	7	4	2	10	9	6	3	54	Matthew Schryver '20 [1-10] Sophie Jackson '20 [1-8] Nicholas Chaloux '20 [9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 3 A	14	11	12	4	3	7	7	7	8	5	78	Christopher Pearson '20 [1-10] Nicholas Chaloux '20 [1-8] Wyle Goddard '21 [9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2 B	4	15	5	11	10	4	15	3	11	7	85	Michael O'Flaherty '21 [1-10] Alyssa Hall '20 [1-8] Ian Nannig '19 [9-10]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks A	7	14	4	17	9	6	6	5	9	14	91	Sean Beaulieu '18 Allison Gilson '21
University of Vermont	Catamounts A	16	6	11	9	13	10	5	11	3	17	101	Joshua Stone '20 Elizabeth Holiman '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams 5 A	18	4	15	15	7	8	8	12	7	8	102	Kyle Nannig '21 [1-10] Ian Nannig '19 [1-8] Samantha Hamilton '19 [9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 5 B	1	9	9	6	8	18	18	8	16	10	103	Ryan Geib '19 [1-8] Sophie Podlich '18 [9-10] Samantha Hamilton '19 [1-8] Caitlin Abel '21 [9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 4 B	15	7	10	13	11	11	12	13	10	11	113	Rebecca Read '21 [1-8] Kylie Castellano '21 [9-10] Sarah Morin '18 [1-8]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 3 B	13	16	13	8	12	12	14	6	15	13	122	Peter Gunn '20 Emerson Campbell '21
University of Vermont	Catamounts B	9	13	14	12	17	13	11	14	5	16	124	Elliott Gear '21 Robert Hamann '21
Salve Regina University	Seahawks B	17	10	2	10	18	15	9	16	14	15	126	Lucie Ford '20 Alexa Percell '20
Northeastern University	Huskies A	12	17	18	14	15	16	13	15	17	9	146	Carter Brock '22 [1-8] Ben Palmer '22 [9-10] Ellen Reagan '20 [1-8] Kelley Phippen '22 [9-10]
Northeastern University	Huskies B	10	12	17	18	14	17	17	18	13	12	148	William Crane '21 Claire Lockard '18
Tufts University	Jumbos B	11	18	16	16	16	14	16	17	DNS	DNS	162	Matthew Galbraith '21 Chia-Yun Hu '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Northeastern University Huskies	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
University of Rhode Island Rams 3	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
University of Rhode Island Rams 4	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
University of Rhode Island Rams 5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Salve Regina University Seahawks	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
University of Vermont Catamounts	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Northeastern University Huskies	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
University of Rhode Island Rams 3	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
University of Rhode Island Rams 4	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
University of Rhode Island Rams 5	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Salve Regina University Seahawks	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
University of Vermont Catamounts	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Northeastern University	Carter Brock '22 [1-8] Ben Palmer '22 [9-10]	Ellen Reagan '20 [1-8] Kelley Phippen '22 [9-10]
Huskies	William Crane '21	Claire Lockard '18
Salve Regina University	Sean Beaulieu '18	Allison Gilson '21
Seahawks	Lucie Ford '20	Alexa Percell '20
Tufts University	Tyler Paige '18	Duke Saunders '20
Jumbos	Matthew Galbraith '21	Chia-Yun Hu '21
University of Rhode Island	Brendan Read '19	Lauren Richards '19
Rams 1	Dakota Northrup '19 [1-10]	Caroline Rocchio '20 [1-8] Ryan Geib '19 [9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Luke Ingalls '21	Ellis Havelock '18
Rams 2	Michael O'Flaherty '21 [1-10]	Alyssa Hall '20 [1-8] Ian Nannig '19 [9-10]
University of Rhode Island	Christopher Pearson '20 [1-10]	Nicholas Chaloux '20 [1-8] Wyle Goddard '21 [9-10]
Rams 3	Peter Gunn '20	Emerson Campbell '21
University of Rhode Island	Matthew Schryver '20 [1-10]	Sophie Jackson '20 [1-8] Nicholas Chaloux '20 [9-10]
Rams 4	Rebecca Read '21 [1-8] Kylie Castellano '21 [9-10]	Sarah Morin '18 [1-8]
University of Rhode Island	Kyle Nannig '21 [1-10]	Ian Nannig '19 [1-8] Samantha Hamilton '19 [9-10]
Rams 5	Ryan Geib '19 [1-8] Sophie Podlich '18 [9-10]	Samantha Hamilton '19 [1-8] Caitlin Abel '21 [9-10]
University of Vermont	Joshua Stone '20	Elizabeth Holiman '20
Catamounts	Elliott Gear '21	Robert Hamann '21

Conditions — 03/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.9 kn

avg · max 11.3 kn

Gusts to 27.0 kn

From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn* · W 18 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Rhode Island: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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