University of Rhode Island '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 41–72 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 4 | 12–20 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 12–19 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 7–18 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 0–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 10–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (113 matches) the record is 41–72 against 44.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-25 | NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.89 | 1.44 | 3–9 | 5.5 | −1.45 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 2021-04-24 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.86 | 3.22 | 4–2 | 3.6 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 1.45 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.14 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 2.24 | 4–5 | 4.6 | −0.43 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.54 | 3.41 | 9–8 | 6.0 | +0.87 | 1.9 | 8% |
| 2020-02-29 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.57 | 2.75 | 3–11 | 2.6 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.41 | 1.15 | 3–9 | 5.6 | −1.26 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2019-03-24 | Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 3.01 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.38 | 1.98 | 1–2 | 1.2 | −0.39 | 0.0 | 88% |
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | -0.73 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 1.79 | 1.70 | 10–10 | 10.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.2 | 3.59 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.8 | 3.30 |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 3.90 |
| NEISA Team Race Championship for Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| 2021 Gill College Sailing Coed Nationals | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.3 | 2.88 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 0.76 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.9 | 0.86 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.3 | 3.38 |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.6 | 2.91 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.5 | 2.95 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.7 | 3.10 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.9 | 3.03 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 3.69 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.5 | 2.67 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Southern 7 at URI | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 1.98 |
| Salve Saturday Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | -0.58 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 6.5 | 2.22 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 3.20 |
| Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.4 | 2.90 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.0 | 3.44 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 3.03 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.9 | 2.53 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 11.3 | 2.50 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 1 | 18.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 2.57 |
| Southern Series at URI | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 0.41 |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.8 | 3.77 |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Central 3 at URI | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.5 | 0.65 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.51 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 1.45 |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.3 | -0.20 |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.8 | 0.35 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.8 | 1.44 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.7 | 1.93 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 2.70 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
