Nicholas J Barnett Trophy

HostBowdoin
Date10/07/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Harvard University	Crimson	160
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	204
3	Boston University	Terriers	210
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams	255
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears 1	269
6	Northeastern University	Huskies	316
7	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	318
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears 2	379
9	Middlebury College	Panthers	466

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT	Sailors
Harvard University	Crimson A	3	1	12	2	1	3	4	13	2	5	1	1	4	4	11	67	Henry Burnes '22 [1-15] Catherine Tang '19 [1-10] Emily Wang '21 [11-15]
Tufts University	Jumbos A	6	10	13	7	3	4	3	15	1	10	11	4	1	3	1	92	Cameron Holley '19 Ian Morgan '19
Harvard University	Crimson B	8	7	7	1	8	1	5	5	14	1	9	2	5	1	OCS	93	Eli Burnes '22 Kevin Coakley '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams A	4	8	11	17	7	12	1	2	10	2	5	5	6	6	4	100	Patrick Isherwood '17 Jack Hurley '18
Boston University	Terriers B	7	4	6	8	4	14	10	7	6	7	3	6	3	16	2	103	Alex Moreno '19 Charles Honke '20
Boston University	Terriers A	2	14	9	3	14	10	2	6	5	9	7	3	8	10	5	107	Kyle Dochoda '21 Emily Walker '19
Tufts University	Jumbos B	12	6	15	4	16	15	11	4	3	3	2	14	2	2	3	112	Jack Bitney '19 Lara Dienemann '18
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears 1 A	1	17	3	9	2	8	13	3	4	6	4	8	12	14	OCS	123	Alexander Vasiliou '18 Martinique Ogle '18
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears 1 B	14	3	14	10	5	5	7	10	17	11	10	9	9	7	15	146	Catherine Price '18 Caitlin Tardio '19
Salve Regina University	Seahawks A	10	11	18	6	11	13	9	8	11	4	13	15	7	5	7	148	Sean Beaulieu '18 Jennifer Ryan '19
Northeastern University	Huskies A	11	2	5	11	6	11	17	11	9	8	12	13	16	8	8	148	Chris Colbeth '20 Alexandra Nygren '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams B	15	5	10	12	10	9	6	9	15	15	6	10	15	12	6	155	Michael O'Flaherty '21 Caroline Rocchio '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears 2 A	5	15	4	5	12	6	15	16	8	13	15	12	14	11	10	161	Claire Havig '21 Nora Cullen '18
Northeastern University	Huskies B	16	13	8	14	9	7	14	17	12	12	8	7	10	9	12	168	Zachary Bresnick '21 Katherine Alfond '19
Salve Regina University	Seahawks B	17	9	1	16	13	2	12	1	16	14	14	11	13	17	14	170	Jennifer Killian '19 Madeline Lark '20
Middlebury College	Panthers A	13	18	2	15	15	18	8	14	7	17	DNF	17	11	15	13	202	Ben Brown '18 Gabrielle Beaulieu '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears 2 B	9	16	17	13	17	16	16	12	13	18	16	16	17	13	9	218	Emmett Ulian '19 Nicholas Sarni '20
Middlebury College	Panthers B	18	12	16	18	18	17	18	18	18	16	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	264	Jillian Lessing '21 Kate Hilscher '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.160+0.16

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A
Boston University Terriers	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
Harvard University Crimson	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15
Middlebury College Panthers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
Northeastern University Huskies	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17
University of Rhode Island Rams	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16
Salve Regina University Seahawks	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14
Tufts University Jumbos	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B
Boston University Terriers	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18
Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5
Harvard University Crimson	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2
Middlebury College Panthers	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7
Northeastern University Huskies	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4
University of Rhode Island Rams	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11
Salve Regina University Seahawks	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9
Tufts University Jumbos	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston University	Kyle Dochoda '21	Emily Walker '19
Terriers	Alex Moreno '19	Charles Honke '20
Bowdoin College	Alexander Vasiliou '18	Martinique Ogle '18
Polar Bears 1	Catherine Price '18	Caitlin Tardio '19
Bowdoin College	Claire Havig '21	Nora Cullen '18
Polar Bears 2	Emmett Ulian '19	Nicholas Sarni '20
Harvard University	Henry Burnes '22 [1-15]	Catherine Tang '19 [1-10] Emily Wang '21 [11-15]
Crimson	Eli Burnes '22	Kevin Coakley '18
Middlebury College	Ben Brown '18	Gabrielle Beaulieu '20
Panthers	Jillian Lessing '21	Kate Hilscher '20
Northeastern University	Chris Colbeth '20	Alexandra Nygren '20
Huskies	Zachary Bresnick '21	Katherine Alfond '19
Salve Regina University	Sean Beaulieu '18	Jennifer Ryan '19
Seahawks	Jennifer Killian '19	Madeline Lark '20
Tufts University	Cameron Holley '19	Ian Morgan '19
Jumbos	Jack Bitney '19	Lara Dienemann '18
University of Rhode Island	Patrick Isherwood '17	Jack Hurley '18
Rams	Michael O'Flaherty '21	Caroline Rocchio '20

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 82% · Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 22.2 kn

From SSE (161°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine7.1 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1020.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn · S 17 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Bowdoin: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.18

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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