Bowdoin College '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 30–22 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 21–16 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 30–22 against 30.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.61 | 2.16 | 10–5 | 11.3 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 2.77 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.60 | 2.30 | 3–4 | 3.4 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | skipper | 2.40 | 2.56 | 9–6 | 8.5 | +0.15 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.0 | 3.03 |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 3.71 |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.4 | 2.27 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.1 | 3.58 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 7.9 | 3.33 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.0 | 2.42 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.8 | 3.31 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 3.60 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 8.3 | 3.02 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.6 | 2.04 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.4 | 2.36 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.4 | 2.71 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 6 | 9.5 | 2.41 |
| Bowdoin Mid Week Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 4.5 | 3.56 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 1.64 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 7 | 8.9 | 3.02 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 8.9 | 2.33 |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 3.91 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.5 | 4.36 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 2.83 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 14 | 8.4 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.0 | 2.53 |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.4 | 3.00 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 2.38 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 5.3 | — |
| Mystic Lake Central Series Four | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 1.17 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
