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Penobscot Bay Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 15 33 48
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 23 31 54
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 23 33 56
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 25 31 56
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 26 38 64
6 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 47 25 72
7 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 29 46 75
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 48 32 80
9 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 54 32 86
10 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 65 44 109
11 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 52 64 116
12 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 65 63 128
13 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 74 67 141
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 1 3 2 4 3 15 Rachel Bryer '17
Hannah Scanlon '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 9 4 1 3 5 23 Josh Dochoda '20
Charles Honke '20
Boston College Boston College Eagles 10 4 1 3 1 4 23 Wade Waddell '19
Emma Perry '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 2 2 7 8 2 25 Scott Barbano '17
Ian Morgan '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 8 5 5 2 1 26 John Wehner '18
Katherine Alfond '19
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 3 3 7 4 6 6 29 Cameron Loncoski '20 [1-6]
Miranda Huson '20 [1-4]
Graham Roeber '19 [5-6]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 7 10 12 6 5 7 47 Matthew Lyons '17
Louisa Lindgren '19
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 6 5 9 10 7 11 48 William Crary '17
Sydney Connor '18
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 8 7 10 8 10 9 52 Sean Beaulieu '18
Jennifer Ryan '19
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 12 6 6 9 13 8 54 Hugh Macgillivray '18
Eliza Garry '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 9 11 11 13 9 12 65 Jennifer Lee '17
Olivia Mclaughlin '18
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 11 13 8 11 12 10 65 Frank Reeg '19
Catherine Haines '19
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 13 12 13 12 11 13 74 Amy Macdonald '18
Mary Ferguson '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 3 10 1 4 6 25 Alexander Vasiliou '18
Jake Griffin '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 1 5 3 DSQ 5 31 John Rolander '17 [1-6]
Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 [1-4]
Ian Morgan '19 [5-6]
Boston College Boston College Eagles BKD 6 3 10 6 1 31 Drake Lyon '18
Megan Bamford '18
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 4 2 7 7 10 32 Jan Kite-Powell '19 [1-6]
Haley Mcmahon '18 [1-5]
Brittney Manning '18 [6]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 2 13 9 1 2 32 Carter Pemberton '20 [1-6]
Erin Smith '19 [1-4]
Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 [5-6]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 8 7 6 5 3 33 Dakota Northrup '19 [1-6]
Lauren Richards '19 [1-4]
Matthew Gibbs '17 [5-6]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 9 8 4 2 4 33 Collin Alexander '20
Lily Lichtenstein '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 7 9 5 3 7 38 Chris Colbeth '20
Alexandra Nygren '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 9 10 6 2 9 8 44 Kyle Brego '17
Emily Casella '17
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 12 5 1 8 11 9 46 Jack Gould '20
Jane Marvin '28
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 8 12 11 11 8 13 63 Allison Fusaro '17
George Williams '17
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 11 13 4 13 12 11 64 Brian Baker '18 [1-2, 5]
Jennifer Killian '19 [3-4, 6]
Jennifer Killian '19 [1-2, 5]
Madeline Lark '20 [3-4]
Brian Baker '18 [6]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 10 11 12 12 10 12 67 Matthew Moss-Hawkins '17
Carter Goodell '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats113355
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles2214141212
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers335577
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears44221414
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1111131311
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels557799
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners664422
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers77991111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies886644
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1212101088
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks9911111313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos10108866
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts13131133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats224466
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1113131111
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers446688
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears33111313
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1212141422
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels66881010
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners553311
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers8810101212
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies775533
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams11119977
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks101012121414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos997755
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts14142244
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bates College Bates College Amy Macdonald '18 Mary Ferguson '18
Bobcats Matthew Moss-Hawkins '17 Carter Goodell '19
Boston College Boston College Wade Waddell '19 Emma Perry '19
Eagles Drake Lyon '18 Megan Bamford '18
Boston University Boston University Josh Dochoda '20 Charles Honke '20
Terriers Collin Alexander '20 Lily Lichtenstein '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Matthew Lyons '17 Louisa Lindgren '19
Polar Bears Alexander Vasiliou '18 Jake Griffin '18
Connecticut College Connecticut College Hugh Macgillivray '18 Eliza Garry '17
Camels Carter Pemberton '20 [1-6] Erin Smith '19 [1-4]
Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 [5-6]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Cameron Loncoski '20 [1-6] Miranda Huson '20 [1-4]
Graham Roeber '19 [5-6]
Mariners Jack Gould '20 Jane Marvin '28
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Frank Reeg '19 Catherine Haines '19
Buccaneers Kyle Brego '17 Emily Casella '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University John Wehner '18 Katherine Alfond '19
Huskies Chris Colbeth '20 Alexandra Nygren '20
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Sean Beaulieu '18 Jennifer Ryan '19
Seahawks Brian Baker '18 [1-2, 5]
Jennifer Killian '19 [3-4, 6]		 Jennifer Killian '19 [1-2, 5]
Madeline Lark '20 [3-4]
Brian Baker '18 [6]
Tufts University Tufts University Scott Barbano '17 Ian Morgan '19
Jumbos John Rolander '17 [1-6] Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 [1-4]
Ian Morgan '19 [5-6]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Jennifer Lee '17 Olivia Mclaughlin '18
Huskies Allison Fusaro '17 George Williams '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rachel Bryer '17 Hannah Scanlon '18
Rams Dakota Northrup '19 [1-6] Lauren Richards '19 [1-4]
Matthew Gibbs '17 [5-6]
University of Vermont University of Vermont William Crary '17 Sydney Connor '18
Catamounts Jan Kite-Powell '19 [1-6] Haley Mcmahon '18 [1-5]
Brittney Manning '18 [6]

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From SE (131°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1018.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn · SW 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Maine Maritime: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.57 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Maine Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →