University of Rhode Island '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.13 (fleet 4.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–19 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 10–10 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 11–1 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 28–19 against 28.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Staake Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.76 | 3.17 | 10–10 | 12.4 | −0.59 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2016-03-26 | Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | skipper | 3.42 | 5.48 | 11–1 | 7.9 | +2.06 | 4.0 | 3% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 3.05 | 2.86 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 1.66 | 1–4 | 2.1 | −1.07 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.3 | 3.54 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.9 | 5.01 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.4 | 4.63 |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 3.76 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.4 | 4.30 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 17 | 6.1 | 4.73 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 3.43 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.5 | 4.48 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.4 | 4.48 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 3.52 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 4.67 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.3 | 4.28 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 4.26 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 4.32 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 5.03 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 2.9 | 5.34 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 4.00 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.9 | 3.85 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 4.21 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.4 | 4.26 |
| Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.7 | 4.12 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 2.7 | 5.05 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.6 | 3.90 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.2 | 3.96 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 4.66 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.8 | 3.08 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 4.04 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.3 | 4.10 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.3 | 4.11 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.2 | 4.82 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 3.90 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.5 | 4.18 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 3.35 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 3.38 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.3 | 4.70 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.3 | 3.73 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.5 | 4.06 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.8 | 4.00 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.7 | 3.46 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 4.68 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.5 | 3.67 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.6 | 3.99 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 3.89 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.9 | 3.94 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.6 | 3.06 |
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 2.70 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 3.75 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.6 | 3.68 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.8 | 2.82 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.1 | 3.68 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.0 | 2.96 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.6 | 3.84 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 4.36 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.2 | 3.58 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 6.5 | 3.58 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.0 | 3.32 |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 2.64 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.8 | 3.55 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 3.22 |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | 3.60 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.6 | 2.56 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.5 | 2.99 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.1 | 2.62 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 2.87 |
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.8 | 3.10 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 3.72 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 3.32 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 2.37 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 2.75 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.0 | 2.14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
