| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 3–4 |
| 4 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 5–2 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 1–6 |
| 7 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,991 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 28 matches (57%) with a log-loss of 0.584 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.18 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bowdoin College | 9.53 | 11.71 | 6–1 | 3.4 | +2.18 | 3.8 | 3% |
| 3 | Connecticut College | 9.90 | 10.48 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 4 | Tufts University | 9.97 | 10.53 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 7 | Salve Regina University | 7.10 | 7.65 | 1–6 | 0.6 | +0.55 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 2 | University of Vermont | 10.13 | 10.46 | 5–2 | 4.6 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 6 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 9.44 | 8.48 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −0.96 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 4 | Roger Williams University | 10.46 | 9.10 | 3–4 | 4.9 | −1.36 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 7 | University of Rhode Island | 9.13 | 7.50 | 1–6 | 3.0 | −1.63 | 2.1 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Catamounts | Camels | Hawks | Jumbos | Bears | Seahawks | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 6–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 5–2 | W | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 5–2 | L | W | W | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 DSQ |
| 5 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Catamounts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Polar Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Camels | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 16 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Catamounts | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Camels | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Camels | 1-2-3 DSQ | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Catamounts | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Camels | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
