U. S. Coast Guard Academy '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.58 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 16 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.24 (fleet 4.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 80–100 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–8 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 10–6 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 22–27 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 26–39 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 4–7 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 13–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (154 matches) the record is 67–87 against 76.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−9.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.88 | 3.21 | 5–8 | 6.8 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.98 | 4.11 | 10–6 | 9.6 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.93 | 4.01 | 3–8 | 2.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.51 | 3.23 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.85 | 2.13 | 9–9 | 14.8 | −1.72 | 7.8 | >99% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.98 | 3.91 | 8–6 | 8.2 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.26 | 3.92 | 3–8 | 1.8 | +0.67 | 0.6 | 27% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.16 | 2.63 | 5–12 | 6.6 | −0.53 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.27 | 4.05 | 14–7 | 10.6 | +0.79 | 1.9 | 8% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 1.83 | 2–8 | 4.2 | −1.48 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.16 | 2.32 | 2–4 | 2.9 | −0.84 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 1.82 | 4–7 | 5.9 | −0.93 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 4.08 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.0 | 4.76 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.5 | 4.57 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 4.68 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.9 | 3.32 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.5 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 4.53 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.3 | 5.04 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 4.71 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 4.83 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.5 | 3.89 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 4.03 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.7 | 4.01 |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 4.04 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.3 | 4.47 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.4 | 5.47 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.1 | 4.93 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 4.29 |
| Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 4.08 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.5 | 3.88 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 3.82 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 4.16 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.7 | 4.10 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 3.79 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.3 | 2.71 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.5 | 3.98 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 3.89 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.5 | 4.04 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 3.73 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 29% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.8 | 3.70 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.2 | 4.15 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 2.81 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.6 | 3.41 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 4.03 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.0 | 2.91 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 3.25 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.4 | 2.54 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 3.76 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.9 | 3.50 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 4.10 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.7 | 2.49 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.9 | 2.99 |
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.8 | 3.61 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.3 | 3.56 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.0 | 2.76 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.9 | 3.54 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.4 | 2.56 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.0 | 2.38 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.0 | 2.43 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 2.58 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
