Fowle Trophy

HostHarvard
Date04/11/2015
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	16–2
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–6
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–6
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–7
5	Harvard University	Crimson	10–8
6	Brown University	Bears	8–10
7	University of Vermont	Catamounts	8–10
8	Connecticut College	Camels	7–11
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–8
10	Dartmouth College	Big Green	3–8
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2–9
12	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	2–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,462 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 60 of 88 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.588 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	2	12.54 school +0.07	Erika Reineke / Christopher Dwyer 4.04 8–2 Raul Rios / Domenic Bove 4.22 8–2 William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 4.18 9–0 William Bailey / Katja Sertl 4.06 6–2 Raul Rios / Alex Palfrey 4.20 7–0 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.22 5–0 Erika Reineke / Katja Sertl 4.10 2–0	78%	15–2 (88%)	+1.8
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	11.42 school +0.10	William Macdonald / James Kennedy 4.08 5–5 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.58 5–3 Connor Corgard / Riley Eger 3.66 4–3 Henry Vogel / James Bartlein 3.38 4–3 William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 4.25 6–1 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.85 4–2 Mackenzie Bryan / Abby Preston 3.40 3–1 Mackenzie Bryan / Wendy Reuss 3.41 2–0	52%	11–6 (65%)	+2.2
3	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.86 school +0.19	Graham Landy / Christopher Champa 4.60 10–4 Malcolm Lamphere / Charlotte Belling 3.38 6–2 Ian Barrows / Katherine Gaumond 4.71 6–2 Malcolm Lamphere / Clara Robertson 3.34 6–2 Ian Barrows / Charlotte Belling 4.54 6–2 Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.96 2–0 Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.20 0–2 Graham Landy / Charlotte Belling 4.79 0–2 Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 4.57 0–2	82%	12–6 (67%)	−2.7
4	Tufts University Jumbos	4	11.42 school +0.09	Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.59 6–5 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Alexander Tong 4.03 5–3 Duncan Swain / Sam Madden 3.76 5–3 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Aaron Klein 3.91 5–2 Dan Nickerson / Sam Madden 3.65 5–2 Duncan Swain / Alexander Tong 3.64 5–2 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 4.14 1–2 Duncan Swain / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.60 1–2	52%	11–7 (61%)	+1.6
5	Harvard University Crimson	3	11.74 school −0.34, home +0.25	Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 4.32 8–6 Gram Slattery / Kevin Coakley 3.72 8–5 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.87 4–2 Andrew Mollerus / Jacob Bradt 4.02 2–2 Andrew Mollerus / Michael Drumm 3.80 2–2 Gram Slattery / Julia Lord 3.80 2–1 Marek Zaleski / Michael Drumm 3.80 1–1 Marek Zaleski / Brian Drumm 3.79 1–1 Marek Zaleski / Sydney Karnovsky 3.88 2–0 Michael Drumm / Kevin Coakley 3.50 0–2 Gram Slattery / Sydney Karnovsky 3.85 0–2	59%	10–8 (56%)	−0.7
6	Brown University Bears	6	11.30 school +0.31	Nathan Allman / Henry Sharpe 3.51 Lucas Adams / Marina Cano 3.62 6–7 Pearson Potts / Jessica O'Dell 3.80 5–6 Lucas Adams / Jessica O'Dell 3.60 1–3 Pearson Potts / Ragna Eide 3.87 1–3 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.80 1–1	50%	7–10 (41%)	−1.4
7	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	10.97 school +0.05	Nate Jermain / Travis Bobley 3.66 6–10 Michael Zonnenberg / Mike Kanare 3.62 5–10 Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 3.49 5–4 Michael Booker / Sydney Connor 3.56 2–6 Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.95 2–0 Nate Jermain / Megan Mackinnon 3.57 1–0	41%	7–10 (41%)	−0.0
8	Connecticut College Camels	12	10.10	Jordan Bothwick / Victoria Allen 3.40 2–8 Bryce Kopp / Walter Florio 3.53 2–8 Hugh Macgillivray / Kim Bolick 3.22 3–7 Hugh Macgillivray / Albert Rodiger 3.15 4–4 Jordan Bothwick / Walter Florio 3.33 4–2 Bryce Kopp / Luke Andersen 3.45 4–2 Jordan Bothwick / Lea Bushnell 3.43 1–1 Bryce Kopp / Victoria Allen 3.60 1–1	22%	7–11 (39%)	+3.1
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	11	10.11 school −0.48	Nikole Barnes / Andrew Britton 3.83 Dylan Finneran / Hannah Herring 2.80 Avery Fanning / Robert Turley 3.93	26%	3–8 (27%)	+0.1
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	10.97	Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 3.94 Charles Lalumiere / Abigail Rohman 3.65 Ian Storck / Lizzie Guynn 3.31 1–2 Ian Storck / Madeleine Cooney 3.27 0–1 Scott Houck / Lizzie Guynn 3.68 0–1	47%	1–4 (20%)	−1.3
11	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	9	10.50 school +0.35	Michael Croteau / Jake Griffin 3.31 1–4 Jack Mcguire / Matthew Lyons 3.58 1–4 Michael Croteau / Mary Paz 3.69 1–4 William Hawk / Julia Rew 3.04 1–4 William Hawk / Chester Jacobs 2.88 1–3 Jack Mcguire / Charlotte Williamson 3.63 1–3 Jack Mcguire / Julia Rew 3.73 0–1 William Hawk / Charlotte Williamson 2.94 0–1	34%	2–8 (20%)	−1.4
12	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10	10.39 school −0.22	Cutter O'Connell / Christopher Ford 3.38 David Larson / Jordan Ladd 3.64 2–7 Alexander Stewart / Ty Ingram 3.52 2–6 Alexander Stewart / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.68 0–2 David Larson / Paige Omura 3.64 0–1	32%	2–8 (20%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
8	Connecticut College	10.10	11.01	7–11	3.9	+0.91	2.1	7%
1	Boston College	12.54	13.36	15–2	13.2	+0.83	1.0	22%
2	Roger Williams University	11.42	12.10	11–6	8.8	+0.68	1.1	17%
4	Tufts University	11.42	11.85	11–7	9.4	+0.43	0.5	29%
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.11	10.19	3–8	2.9	+0.07	0.0	58%
7	University of Vermont	10.97	10.96	7–10	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
5	Harvard University	11.74	11.56	10–8	10.7	−0.18	0.1	73%
6	Brown University	11.30	10.90	7–10	8.4	−0.41	0.4	85%
12	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.39	9.68	2–8	3.2	−0.71	0.6	90%
11	Bowdoin College	10.50	9.65	2–8	3.4	−0.85	0.8	93%
3	Yale University	12.86	11.96	12–6	14.7	−0.90	1.9	97%
10	Dartmouth College	10.97	9.49	1–4	2.3	−1.48	1.3	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	3.40	4.32	7–11	3.9	+0.91	2.1	7%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.53	4.44	7–11	3.9	+0.91	2.1	7%
William Bailey	Boston College	4.18	5.00	15–2	13.2	+0.83	1.0	22%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.04	4.87	15–2	13.2	+0.83	1.0	22%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.22	5.05	15–2	13.2	+0.83	1.0	22%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.08	4.76	11–6	8.8	+0.68	1.1	17%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.58	4.10	9–6	7.5	+0.53	0.6	27%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	4.03	4.45	11–7	9.4	+0.43	0.5	29%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.59	4.02	11–7	9.4	+0.43	0.5	29%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.76	4.19	11–7	9.4	+0.43	0.5	29%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.83	3.91	3–8	2.9	+0.07	0.0	58%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.80	2.87	3–8	2.9	+0.07	0.0	58%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.93	4.01	3–8	2.9	+0.07	0.0	58%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.66	3.69	8–5	7.9	+0.03	0.0	61%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	4.32	4.34	8–6	8.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.80	3.80	4–2	4.0	+0.00	0.0	68%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.49	3.48	7–10	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.66	3.65	7–10	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.62	3.61	7–10	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.72	3.54	10–8	10.7	−0.18	0.1	73%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.87	3.56	8–6	8.9	−0.30	0.2	80%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.62	3.22	7–10	8.4	−0.41	0.4	85%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.51	3.11	7–10	8.4	−0.41	0.4	85%
David Larson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.64	2.93	2–8	3.2	−0.71	0.6	90%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.52	2.81	2–8	3.2	−0.71	0.6	90%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	3.31	2.46	2–8	3.4	−0.85	0.8	93%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.58	2.73	2–8	3.4	−0.85	0.8	93%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.04	2.20	2–8	3.4	−0.85	0.8	93%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.60	3.70	12–6	14.7	−0.90	1.9	97%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.71	3.81	12–6	14.7	−0.90	1.9	97%
Ian Storck	Dartmouth College	3.31	1.90	1–3	2.2	−1.42	1.2	97%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.94	2.47	1–4	2.3	−1.48	1.3	97%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.65	2.17	1–4	2.3	−1.48	1.3	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Vermont	Brown University	38%	upset
1	2	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	60%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	4	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
1	5	Boston College	Bowdoin College	91%
1	6	Yale University	Connecticut College	95%
1	7	Tufts University	University of Vermont	61%
1	8	Roger Williams University	Brown University	50%	upset
1	9	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	36%	upset
1	10	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	11	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	46%	upset
1	12	Yale University	Bowdoin College	94%
1	13	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	48%	upset
1	14	University of Vermont	Harvard University	36%	upset
1	15	Boston College	Brown University	75%
1	16	Connecticut College	Dartmouth College	27%	upset
1	17	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	48%	upset
1	18	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
1	19	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	64%
1	20	Boston College	Tufts University	75%
1	21	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	69%
1	22	Brown University	Bowdoin College	73%
1	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
1	24	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	25	Boston College	Harvard University	75%
1	26	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	16%	upset
1	27	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	68%
1	28	University of Vermont	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	29%	upset
1	30	Yale University	Dartmouth College	84%
1	31	Boston College	Connecticut College	92%
1	32	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	75%
1	33	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	18%	upset
1	34	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
1	36	Yale University	Brown University	81%
1	37	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	64%
1	38	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	93%
1	39	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	41	Brown University	Tufts University	45%	upset
1	42	Yale University	University of Vermont	85%
1	43	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	35%	upset
1	44	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
1	46	Harvard University	Brown University	65%
1	47	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	65%
1	48	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
1	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
1	51	Brown University	Connecticut College	76%
1	52	Boston College	University of Vermont	83%
1	53	Harvard University	Tufts University	59%
1	54	Roger Williams University	Yale University	20%	upset
1	56	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	57	University of Vermont	Bowdoin College	61%
1	58	Tufts University	Connecticut College	82%
1	59	Boston College	Roger Williams University	78%
1	60	Harvard University	Yale University	24%	upset
1	62	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	63	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
1	64	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	74%
1	65	Harvard University	Connecticut College	83%
1	66	Boston College	Yale University	48%	upset
2	67	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	65%
2	68	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
2	69	Brown University	Harvard University	35%	upset
2	70	Boston College	Connecticut College	92%
2	71	Roger Williams University	Yale University	20%	upset
2	72	Harvard University	University of Vermont	63%
2	73	Connecticut College	Tufts University	18%	upset
2	74	Boston College	Brown University	75%
2	75	Yale University	Harvard University	76%
2	76	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	83%
2	77	Brown University	University of Vermont	60%
2	78	Tufts University	Boston College	25%	upset
2	79	Connecticut College	Harvard University	17%	upset
2	80	Yale University	Brown University	81%
2	81	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	52%
2	82	Boston College	University of Vermont	82%
2	83	Brown University	Connecticut College	76%
2	84	Tufts University	Harvard University	41%	upset
2	85	Yale University	University of Vermont	85%
2	86	Roger Williams University	Boston College	22%	upset
2	87	Tufts University	Brown University	55%
2	88	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	69%
2	89	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	64%
2	90	Boston College	Yale University	48%	upset
2	91	Tufts University	University of Vermont	60%
2	92	Roger Williams University	Brown University	49%	upset
2	93	Connecticut College	Yale University	5%	upset
2	94	Boston College	Harvard University	75%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hawks	Bulldogs	Jumbos	Crimson	Bears	Catamounts	Camels	Bears	Green	Bears	Engineers
Boston College Eagles	11–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–4	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	8–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–5	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–3	L	W	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–6	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	7–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–8	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hawks	Bulldogs	Jumbos	Crimson	Bears	Catamounts	Camels
Boston College Eagles	5–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	2–5	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Brown University Bears	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–4	L	L	W	W	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
2	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
3	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
4	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
5	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
6	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
7	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
8	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
9	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
10	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
11	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
13	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
14	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
15	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
16	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
17	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
19	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
21	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
22	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
23	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
24	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
26	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
27	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
28	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
29	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
30	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
31	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
32	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
33	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
34	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
35	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
36	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
37	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
38	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
40	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
41	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5 DSQ
42	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
43	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
44	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
45	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
46	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
49	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
50	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
51	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
52	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
53	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
55	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
56	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
57	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
58	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
59	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
60	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
61	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
62	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
64	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
65	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
66	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
67	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
68	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
69	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
70	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
71	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
72	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
73	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
74	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
76	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
77	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
78	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
79	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
80	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
81	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
82	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
83	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
84	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
85	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
86	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
87	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
88	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
89	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
90	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
91	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
92	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
93	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
94	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Katja Sertl '16 Christopher Dwyer '15 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Alex Palfrey '17 Domenic Bove '15 Katherine Wysocki '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 Mackenzie Bryan '18 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Riley Eger '17 James Bartlein '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16 James Kennedy '17
Yale University	Bulldogs	Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18	Christopher Champa '18 Katherine Gaumond '15 Charlotte Belling '16 Meredith Megarry '17 Clara Robertson '17 Chandler Gregoire '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15	Aaron Klein '18 Alexander Tong '17 Sam Madden '15 Jamie Maffeo '15 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Marek Zaleski '16 Michael Drumm '15	Jacob Bradt '16 Sydney Karnovsky '16 Michael Drumm '15 Kevin Coakley '18 Julia Lord '17 Brian Drumm '15
Brown University	Bears	Lucas Adams '15 Nathan Allman '16 Pearson Potts '16	Jessica O'Dell '17 Marina Cano '17 Henry Sharpe '17 Ragna Eide '16 Lydia Whiteford '15
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Lauren Jones '15 Sydney Connor '18 Mike Kanare '16 Bridget Murphy '15 Travis Bobley '17 Megan Mackinnon '17
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Jordan Bothwick '15	Walter Florio '18 Luke Andersen '18 Victoria Allen '16 Albert Rodiger '18 Kim Bolick '15 Lea Bushnell '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Dylan Finneran '15 Nikole Barnes '17	Robert Turley '16 Hannah Herring '18 Andrew Britton '16
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Deirdre Lambert '15 Ian Storck '15 Scott Houck '15	Abigail Rohman '16 Nathaniel Greason '17 Lizzie Guynn '16 Madeleine Cooney '17
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Michael Croteau '15 William Hawk '18	Matthew Lyons '17 Julia Rew '16 Charlotte Williamson '15 Jake Griffin '18 Mary Paz '17 Chester Jacobs '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 David Larson '16	Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Ty Ingram '18 Christopher Ford '16 Paige Omura '17 Jordan Ladd '17

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.5 kn

avg · max 14.3 kn

Gusts to 28.6 kn

From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1010.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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