University of Vermont '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 29.22 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.112 rating points from 21 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.58 (fleet 3.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 81–117 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 28–28 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–4 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 25–34 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 12–35 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (145 matches) the record is 69–76 against 60.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+9.0). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.66 | 3.65 | 7–10 | 7.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.54 | 3.34 | 8–7 | 8.6 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.53 | 4.90 | 13–11 | 6.4 | +1.37 | 6.8 | <1% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.59 | 7–4 | 6.7 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.34 | 1.97 | 2–9 | 4.6 | −1.36 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.31 | 3.68 | 9–9 | 7.6 | +0.37 | 0.4 | 31% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.20 | 2.54 | 5–11 | 7.2 | −0.66 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 4.34 | 6–4 | 3.9 | +0.95 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.51 | 3.82 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 4.33 | 6–5 | 3.9 | +1.02 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.98 | 4.24 | 3–5 | 1.3 | +1.26 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.7 | 3.21 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 3.53 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.7 | 3.91 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.3 | 3.59 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 2.53 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.8 | 3.08 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 4.12 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.3 | 4.01 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 3.46 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.5 | 4.19 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.6 | 3.16 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.8 | 3.04 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Crew | B | 4 | 12.5 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.5 | 4.12 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 3.61 |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | A | 10 | 6.2 | — |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 10.6 | 2.96 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.7 | 3.66 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.1 | 3.36 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 3.24 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 3.19 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Crew | B | 3 | 11.3 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 14% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 17 | 10.4 | 2.05 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.1 | 2.28 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.6 | 2.41 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 2.49 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.5 | 1.92 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 2.56 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 10.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.0 | 2.71 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.3 | 1.47 |
| Southern Series | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.5 | 2.44 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.7 | 1.88 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.0 | 3.58 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.48 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Middlebury Cup | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.0 | 2.89 |
| Mascoma Invitational (N. Series 2) | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.4 | 2.69 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.9 | 3.33 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.8 | 3.52 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | B | 20 | 6.0 | 1.00 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
