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Fowle Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 13–6
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 12–7
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 11–8
4 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 11–8
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9–10
6 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 7–12
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5–9
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 3–11
9 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2–3
9 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2–3
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers 0–5
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 0–5

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,506 team race matches sailed before 2013-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 24 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.801 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.07 ± 0.39: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
3Roger Williams University
Hawks		210.92
school +0.12		Alec Anderson / Alyssa Seifert 4.28
William Macdonald / Bianca Rom 3.31
Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.19		58%7–3 (70%)+1.2
4Yale University
Bulldogs		111.98
school +0.09		Graham Landy / Heather May 4.17
Cam Cullman / Marlena Fauer 3.85
Christopher Segerblom / Katherine Gaumond 3.85		84%5–5 (50%)−3.4
5Tufts University
Jumbos		310.53
school +0.20		William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.74
William Hutchings / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.28
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 3.29		48%7–3 (70%)+2.2
8University of Vermont
Catamounts		68.92
school −0.35		Jordan Factor / Catherine Mitchell 3.20
Nate Jermain / Sara Anibal 2.98
Michael Booker / Bridget Murphy 3.06 1–3
Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 3.07 2–2		17%3–5 (38%)+1.7
9Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		59.12
school +0.19		Michael Croteau / Julia Rew 3.04
Tom Peabody / Ayaka Okawa 2.86
Kaylee Schwitzer / Mae Speight 3.00		24%2–3 (40%)+0.8
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		410.17
school −0.31		Philip Crain / Steven Drapcho 3.48
David Alfonso / Taylor Burfield 3.33
Andrew Sommer / Kelden Pehr 3.64 0–3
Andrew Sommer / Eben Freeman 3.62 0–2		48%0–5 (0%)−2.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
8University of Vermont8.9210.183–51.3+1.261.612%
5Tufts University10.5311.717–34.8+1.181.811%
9Bowdoin College9.1210.022–31.2+0.900.534%
3Roger Williams University10.9211.577–35.9+0.650.532%
4Yale University11.9810.185–58.4−1.814.8>99%
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology10.177.170–52.4≤−3.005.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jordan FactorUniversity of Vermont3.204.463–51.3+1.261.612%
Nate JermainUniversity of Vermont2.984.243–51.3+1.261.612%
Michael BookerUniversity of Vermont3.064.323–51.3+1.261.612%
William HaegerTufts University3.744.927–34.8+1.181.811%
William HutchingsTufts University3.284.467–34.8+1.181.811%
Alejandro Ruiz-RamonTufts University3.294.477–34.8+1.181.811%
Michael CroteauBowdoin College3.043.942–31.2+0.900.534%
Tom PeabodyBowdoin College2.863.762–31.2+0.900.534%
Kaylee SchwitzerBowdoin College3.003.902–31.2+0.900.534%
Alec AndersonRoger Williams University4.284.937–35.9+0.650.532%
William MacdonaldRoger Williams University3.313.967–35.9+0.650.532%
Henry VogelRoger Williams University3.193.847–35.9+0.650.532%
Graham LandyYale University4.172.375–58.4−1.814.8>99%
Cam CullmanYale University3.852.055–58.4−1.814.8>99%
Christopher SegerblomYale University3.852.045–58.4−1.814.8>99%
Andrew SommerMassachusetts Institute of Technology3.640.640–52.4≤−3.005.1>99%
Philip CrainMassachusetts Institute of Technology3.480.480–52.4≤−3.005.1>99%
David AlfonsoMassachusetts Institute of Technology3.330.330–52.4≤−3.005.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Yale UniversityBowdoin College95%
12Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont83%
13Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology68%
14University of VermontYale University4%upset
15Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology59%
16Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College86%
17Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology86%
18Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University41%upset
19Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont55%
110Roger Williams UniversityYale University26%upset
111Tufts UniversityBowdoin College80%
112University of VermontMassachusetts Institute of Technology22%upset
113Tufts UniversityYale University19%upset
114University of VermontRoger Williams University12%upset
115Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology26%upset
247Yale UniversityRoger Williams University74%
258Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont83%
261Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of Vermont88%
262Yale UniversityTufts University81%
266Roger Williams UniversityTufts University60%
271Yale UniversityUniversity of Vermont96%
675Tufts UniversityYale University19%upset
682Roger Williams UniversityYale University26%upset
687Roger Williams UniversityTufts University60%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsEaglesHawksBulldogsJumbosGreenCamelsCatamountsBearsEngineers
Brown University Bears2–2✕–WLW––L––
Boston College Eagles2–2–✕WLL––W––
Roger Williams University Hawks5–4LL✕WLWWLWW
Yale University Bulldogs6–3WWL✕LWWLWW
Tufts University Jumbos7–2LWWW✕WLWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green1–3––LLL✕–W––
Connecticut College Camels2–2––LLW–✕W––
University of Vermont Catamounts4–5WLWWLLL✕LW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–3––LLL––W✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers0–5––LLL––LL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsEaglesHawksBulldogsJumbosGreenCamelsCatamountsCrimsonTerriers
Brown University Bears9–3✕WLWWLWWLW
Boston College Eagles10–2L✕WWWWWWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–3WL✕LWLWW––
Yale University Bulldogs4–3LLW✕WWLW––
Tufts University Jumbos2–5LLLL✕LWW––
Dartmouth College Big Green7–5WLWLW✕WWWW
Connecticut College Camels5–7LLLWLL✕WWW
University of Vermont Catamounts0–7LLLLLLL✕––
Harvard University Crimson2–3WL–––LL–✕W
Boston University Terriers0–5LL–––LL–L✕

Round 6

TeamRec.BearsEaglesHawksBulldogsJumbosGreen
Brown University Bears3–2✕WWLLW
Boston College Eagles2–3L✕LLWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–1LW✕WWW
Yale University Bulldogs3–2WWL✕LW
Tufts University Jumbos2–3WLLW✕L
Dartmouth College Big Green1–4LLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
2 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
3 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
4 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
6 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
7 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
8 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
9 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-5
10 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
11 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
12 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
13 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-5
14 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
15 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
31 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
32 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
33 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
34 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
35 Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6 def. Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 DSQ
36 Connecticut College Camels 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
37 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
38 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-6
39 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
40 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
41 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6 DNF,DNF
42 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
43 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
44 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
45 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
46 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-5-6
16 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
18 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
19 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
20 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
21 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
22 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
23 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
24 Connecticut College Camels 1-4-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-3-6
25 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 4-5-6
26 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
27 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-5
28 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
29 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-5-6
30 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
47 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-5-6
48 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
49 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
50 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-6
51 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
52 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
53 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-4-6
54 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
55 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
56 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
57 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Yale University Bulldogs 4-5-6
58 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
59 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
60 Boston College Eagles 2-3-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-4-6
61 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
62 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
63 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-6
64 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
65 Boston College Eagles 1-4-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-6
66 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
67 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
68 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-5-6
69 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
70 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
71 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
72 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
73 Boston College Eagles 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-5-6
74 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5 DSQ
75 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
76 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-5-6
77 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
78 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
79 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
80 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 2-5-6
81 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
82 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
83 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
84 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
85 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
86 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
87 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
88 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6
89 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6

Conditions — 05/04/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1027.9 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1027.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →