Yale University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 50.92 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 12 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.59 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 27 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.79 (fleet 3.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 174–54 (76%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 96–25 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 7 | 78–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (173 matches) the record is 135–38 against 137.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 4.06 | 4.44 | 22–3 | 20.9 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 4.03 | 3.83 | 13–3 | 13.4 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.96 | 2.78 | 15–7 | 18.9 | −1.19 | 3.6 | 99% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.01 | 3.94 | 16–5 | 16.2 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 4.13 | 4.05 | 13–3 | 13.2 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 4.14 | 4.25 | 17–4 | 16.6 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.87 | 4.76 | 18–5 | 14.5 | +0.89 | 2.1 | 7% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.85 | 2.04 | 5–5 | 8.4 | −1.81 | 4.8 | >99% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 4.01 | 4.33 | 16–3 | 15.3 | +0.32 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.6 | 3.78 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 83% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 16 | 81% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.7 | 3.43 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.8 | 3.62 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 81% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 88% | — |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 3.3 | 4.74 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 4.85 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.0 | 3.36 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.9 | 3.54 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.8 | 2.51 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 3.69 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.6 | 3.11 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 77% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 18 | 3.3 | 4.19 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.4 | 3.59 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.1 | 3.85 |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 23 | 78% | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 4.46 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A, B | 8 | 5.6 | — |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.4 | 2.60 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.6 | 3.40 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 3.57 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.2 | 3.87 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 4.37 |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.3 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | 3.23 |
| ICSA Western Semi-Final | Crew | B | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.2 | 2.96 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 6.7 | 3.41 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 3.82 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.0 | 3.13 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 3.46 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.2 | 2.44 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 3.92 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.1 | 3.16 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.0 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.8 | 3.77 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.6 | 3.42 |
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.4 | 3.22 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.2 | 3.50 |
| ICSA Coed Dinghy Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.4 | 4.29 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 3.94 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.0 | 4.19 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 6.1 | 3.27 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.5 | 3.58 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.8 | 3.37 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 3.68 |
| Atlantic Coast Dinghies | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 3.57 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
