Friis & Marchiando Trophies

HostMIT
Date04/06/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Lark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–4
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–6
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	10–7
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–8
5	Brown University	Bears	7–7
6	Harvard University	Crimson	6–8
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	3–11
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	3–11
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–3
10	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–4
11	Boston University	Terriers	7–5
11	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–5
13	Connecticut College	Camels	6–6
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	5–9
15	University of Michigan	Wolverines	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,311 team race matches sailed before 2013-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 61 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.544 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.30 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 19% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	2	12.00 school +0.08	Graham Landy / William Feldman 3.86 Christopher Segerblom / Heather May 4.01 Cam Cullman / Eugenia Custo Greig 3.86	81%	16–3 (84%)	+0.7
4	Tufts University Jumbos	3	10.60 school +0.19	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.74 William Hutchings / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.29 David Liebenberg / Sam Madden 3.32 11–6 David Liebenberg / Madeline Luce 3.34 2–0	52%	13–6 (68%)	+3.2
5	Brown University Bears	1	12.05 school +0.36	Tommy Fink / Michael Yanagisawa 4.18 Tyler Rice / Kristin Altreuter 3.57 10–6 Colin Smith / Louisa Chafee 3.99 6–6 Judge Ryan / Louisa Chafee 3.63 6–0 Judge Ryan / Kristin Altreuter 3.57 2–0	82%	12–6 (67%)	−2.8
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	6	9.17 school +0.07	Bo Mcclatchy / Charlotte Snow 3.04 Christopher Price / Abigail Rohman 3.10 Evan Read / Hope Wilson 2.75	25%	5–13 (28%)	+0.5
11	Boston University Terriers	5	9.34	Ian Towill / Lalitha Kumaresan 2.85 Cameron Fraser / Joseph Benoit 2.95 Ryan Astwood / Margaret Swanson 3.40	42%	5–11 (31%)	−1.8
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	7	8.03 school +0.38	Charles Nunn / Kaitlyn Norton 2.55 Matthew Coughlin / Christina Lewis 2.35 Samuel Cushing / Margaret Craig 2.54	14%	5–11 (31%)	+2.7
13	Connecticut College Camels	4	9.59 school +0.24	Peter Miller / Benjamin Meyers 3.12 Pearson Potts / Claire Sacco 3.13 Jordan Bothwick / Ellis Tonissi 2.76 5–9 Kevin Martland / Ellis Tonissi 3.42 0–2	47%	5–11 (31%)	−2.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Tufts University	10.60	11.73	13–6	9.8	+1.13	2.6	5%
11	University of Rhode Island	8.03	9.15	5–11	2.3	+1.12	2.4	6%
1	Yale University	12.00	12.32	16–3	15.3	+0.32	0.2	47%
7	Dartmouth College	9.17	9.35	5–13	4.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
11	Boston University	9.34	8.68	5–11	6.8	−0.66	0.8	92%
13	Connecticut College	9.59	8.69	5–11	7.5	−0.90	1.6	96%
5	Brown University	12.05	11.01	12–6	14.8	−1.05	2.2	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Haeger	Tufts University	3.74	4.86	13–6	9.8	+1.13	2.6	5%
William Hutchings	Tufts University	3.29	4.42	13–6	9.8	+1.13	2.6	5%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.32	4.45	13–6	9.8	+1.13	2.6	5%
Matthew Coughlin	University of Rhode Island	2.35	3.47	5–11	2.3	+1.12	2.4	6%
Samuel Cushing	University of Rhode Island	2.54	3.65	5–11	2.3	+1.12	2.4	6%
Graham Landy	Yale University	3.86	4.17	16–3	15.3	+0.32	0.2	47%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.01	4.33	16–3	15.3	+0.32	0.2	47%
Cam Cullman	Yale University	3.86	4.18	16–3	15.3	+0.32	0.2	47%
Bo Mcclatchy	Dartmouth College	3.04	3.23	5–13	4.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
Christopher Price	Dartmouth College	3.10	3.29	5–13	4.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	2.75	2.93	5–13	4.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
Ian Towill	Boston University	2.85	2.19	5–11	6.8	−0.66	0.8	92%
Cameron Fraser	Boston University	2.95	2.29	5–11	6.8	−0.66	0.8	92%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.40	2.73	5–11	6.8	−0.66	0.8	92%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	2.76	1.90	5–9	7.3	−0.86	1.4	96%
Peter Miller	Connecticut College	3.12	2.22	5–11	7.5	−0.90	1.6	96%
Tommy Fink	Brown University	4.18	3.13	12–6	14.8	−1.05	2.2	98%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.57	2.50	10–6	12.8	−1.07	2.3	98%
Colin Smith	Brown University	3.99	2.46	6–6	9.2	−1.53	3.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tufts University	Boston University	80%
1	2	Yale University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	3	Brown University	Connecticut College	90%
1	4	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	5	Yale University	Boston University	93%
1	6	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	43%	upset
1	7	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	99%
1	8	Yale University	Tufts University	79%
1	9	Dartmouth College	Boston University	45%	upset
1	10	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	19%	upset
1	11	Brown University	Yale University	55%
1	12	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	19%	upset
1	13	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	21%	upset
1	14	Yale University	Connecticut College	93%
1	15	Tufts University	Brown University	17%	upset
1	16	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	76%
1	17	Brown University	Boston University	92%
1	18	Tufts University	Connecticut College	76%
1	19	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	98%
1	20	Brown University	Dartmouth College	93%
1	21	Boston University	Connecticut College	46%	upset
1	101	Brown University	Yale University	54%
1	102	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	20%	upset
1	105	Yale University	Tufts University	81%
1	106	Brown University	Dartmouth College	93%
1	125	Yale University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	126	Tufts University	Brown University	17%	upset
1	167	Boston University	Connecticut College	45%	upset
1	168	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	21%	upset
1	169	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	18%	upset
2	78	Tufts University	Boston University	78%
2	79	Yale University	Dartmouth College	94%
2	80	Brown University	Connecticut College	88%
2	81	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	93%
2	82	Yale University	Boston University	93%
2	83	Connecticut College	Dartmouth College	59%
2	84	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	98%
2	85	Yale University	Tufts University	80%
2	86	Boston University	Dartmouth College	55%
2	87	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	81%
2	88	Yale University	Brown University	46%	upset
2	89	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	80%
2	90	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	79%
2	91	Yale University	Connecticut College	92%
2	92	Tufts University	Brown University	17%	upset
2	93	University of Rhode Island	Dartmouth College	25%	upset
2	94	Brown University	Boston University	92%
2	95	Tufts University	Connecticut College	74%
2	96	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	98%
2	97	Brown University	Dartmouth College	93%
2	98	Connecticut College	Boston University	55%
2	129	Yale University	Brown University	47%	upset
2	130	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	80%
2	133	Yale University	Tufts University	81%
2	134	Brown University	Dartmouth College	93%
2	153	Yale University	Dartmouth College	94%
2	154	Tufts University	Brown University	17%	upset
2	188	Connecticut College	Boston University	55%
2	189	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	79%
2	190	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	82%
2	202	Tufts University	Yale University	19%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Jumbos	Bears	Crimson	Green	Catamounts	Engineers	Hawks	Terriers	Rams	Camels	Midshipmen	Wolverines
Yale University Bulldogs	11–2	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
Boston College Eagles	8–6	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	–	–	–	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	11–3	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	–	–	–	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	7–6	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
Brown University Bears	9–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	8–6	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	–	–	–	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
University of Vermont Catamounts	6–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	–	–	–	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9–4	–	W	W	–	–	L	–	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–7	–	L	L	–	–	L	–	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–8	L	–	–	L	L	–	L	–	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	6–6	L	–	–	L	L	–	L	–	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	2–10	L	–	–	L	L	–	L	–	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–10	–	L	L	–	–	L	–	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–11	–	L	L	–	–	L	–	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Jumbos	Bears	Crimson	Green	Catamounts	Engineers	Hawks	Terriers	Rams	Camels	Midshipmen	Wolverines
Yale University Bulldogs	13–3	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
Boston College Eagles	13–4	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	9–8	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	L	–	–	–	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	11–5	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
Brown University Bears	7–6	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	–	–	W	W	W	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	8–6	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	–	–	–	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	–	–	L	L	L	–	–
University of Vermont Catamounts	6–8	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	–	–	–	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–6	–	L	L	–	–	L	–	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–5	–	L	W	–	–	W	–	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–6	L	–	–	L	L	–	W	–	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–8	L	–	–	L	L	–	W	–	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	7–5	L	–	–	L	L	–	W	–	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–11	–	L	L	–	–	L	–	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–11	–	L	L	–	–	L	–	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
4	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
6	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
7	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
8	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
9	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
10	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
11	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
12	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
13	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
14	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
15	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
16	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
17	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
18	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
19	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
20	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
21	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
23	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
24	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
25	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
27	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
28	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
29	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
30	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
31	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
32	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
33	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
34	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
35	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
36	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
38	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
39	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
40	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
41	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
42	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
43	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
44	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
45	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
46	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
48	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
49	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
99	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
100	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
101	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
102	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
103	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
104	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
105	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
106	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
107	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
108	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
109	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
110	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
111	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
112	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
113	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
114	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
115	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
116	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
117	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
118	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
119	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
120	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
121	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
122	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
123	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
124	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
125	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
126	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
155	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
156	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
157	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
158	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
159	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
160	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
161	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
162	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
163	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
164	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
165	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
166	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
167	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
168	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
169	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
170	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
171	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
172	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
173	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
174	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
175	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
50	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
51	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
52	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
53	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
54	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
55	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
56	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
57	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
58	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
59	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
60	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
61	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
62	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
63	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
64	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
65	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
66	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
67	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
68	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
70	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
71	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
72	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
73	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
74	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
75	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
76	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
77	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
78	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
79	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
80	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
81	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
82	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
83	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
84	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
85	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
86	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
87	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
88	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
89	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
90	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
91	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
92	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
93	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
94	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
95	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
96	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
97	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
98	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
127	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
128	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
129	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
130	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
131	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
132	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
133	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
134	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
135	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
136	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
137	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
138	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
139	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
140	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
141	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
142	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
143	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
144	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
145	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
146	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
147	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
148	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
149	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
150	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
151	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
152	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
153	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
154	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
176	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
177	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Wolverines	2-4-5
178	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
179	Terriers	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
180	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
181	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
182	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6 DSQ
183	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
184	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
185	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
186	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
187	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
188	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
189	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
190	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
191	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
192	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
193	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
194	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
195	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
196	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
197	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
198	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
199	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
200	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
201	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
202	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Cam Cullman '13 Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15	Eugenia Custo Greig '14 Heather May '13 William Feldman '14
Tufts University	Jumbos	David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14 William Hutchings '13	Sam Madden '15 Madeline Luce '13 Paula Grasberger '14 Kathleen Kwasniak '14
Brown University	Bears	Colin Smith '13 Judge Ryan '14 Tommy Fink '13 Tyler Rice '14	Louisa Chafee '14 Kristin Altreuter '14 Michael Yanagisawa '13
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bo Mcclatchy '13 Christopher Price '14 Evan Read '16	Charlotte Snow '15 Abigail Rohman '16 Hope Wilson '16
Boston University	Terriers	Cameron Fraser '14 Ian Towill '14 Ryan Astwood '16	Joseph Benoit '16 Lalitha Kumaresan '13 Margaret Swanson '16
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Charles Nunn '16 Matthew Coughlin '16 Samuel Cushing '15	Kaitlyn Norton '15 Christina Lewis '16 Margaret Craig '13
Connecticut College	Camels	Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14 Pearson Potts '16 Peter Miller '13	Ellis Tonissi '15 Claire Sacco '13 Benjamin Meyers '15

Conditions — 04/06/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 31% · Pressure 1023.4 hPa

Temperature

40°F

↑ 45°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 12.8 kn

Gusts to 27.6 kn

From NW (323°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity31% Pressure1023.4 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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