Brown University '14
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.40 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 11 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.46 (fleet 3.39) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 100–56 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 39–24 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 50–29 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 11–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (100 matches) the record is 61–39 against 62.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.45 | 2.77 | 5–6 | 6.6 | −0.68 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.41 | 3.46 | 13–9 | 12.8 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.44 | 3.88 | 12–5 | 10.5 | +0.44 | 0.4 | 31% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 4.29 | 9–4 | 7.3 | +0.81 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.48 | 3.41 | 12–9 | 12.3 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 3.57 | 2.50 | 10–6 | 12.8 | −1.07 | 2.3 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 3.35 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.7 | 2.48 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 3.34 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.9 | 3.20 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.3 | 4.05 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.2 | 3.39 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.5 | 2.81 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.0 | 3.67 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.5 | 2.27 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 85% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.5 | 3.88 |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 16 | 4.9 | 3.51 |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 23 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.5 | 3.00 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 1.74 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 3.36 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.7 | 3.63 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 3.79 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 3.21 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | 1.67 |
| Gill Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.5 | -0.50 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 6.6 | 3.46 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | 2.64 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.7 | 3.45 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.1 | 2.44 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.9 | 2.95 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 2.65 |
| Veitor Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.2 | 2.81 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.1 | 3.13 |
| 8th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.5 | 3.30 |
| Admiral Alymer's Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 4.07 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.4 | 2.33 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 1.9 | — |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.2 | 2.14 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.9 | 1.77 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | 2.59 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
