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Captain Hurst Bowl

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 74 101 175
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 76 113 189
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 93 113 206
4 Boston College Boston College Eagles 107 125 232
5 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 105 147 252
6 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 137 131 268
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 150 125 275
8 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 175 122 297
9 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 149 155 304
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 167 142 309
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 181 140 321
12 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 200 129 329
13 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 160 187 347
14 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 164 184 348
15 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 144 206 350
16 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 161 197 358
17 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 189 181 370
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 221 180 401
19 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 225 182 407
20 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 248 177 425
21 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 199 254 453
22 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 217 251 468
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 22 6 3 8 6 1 7 2 2 2 1 1 9 74 Alec Anderson '13 [1-14]
Sophie Bellacosa '13 [1-3, 9-12, 14]
Tyler Wilson '12 [4-8, 13]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 11 6 4 4 3 17 3 6 8 1 6 2 4 1 76 Sam Williams '12 [1-14]
Matthew Habig '13 [1-6, 8-14]
Ian Storck '15 [7]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 13 17 1 6 11 1 4 2 7 4 1 12 11 3 93 Ryan Pesch '12 [1-14]
Alejandra Higgins '13 [1-4, 6, 8-14]
Fiona Gordon '12 [5, 7]
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 3 14 1 15 14 7 11 1 6 12 8 7 5 105 Graham Landy '15 [1-14]
Katherine Gaumond '15 [1-4, 8-14]
Madeline Yozwiak '14 [5-7]
Boston College Boston College Eagles 6 2 5 2 6 4 16 9 16 9 5 7 14 6 107 Anne Haeger '12 [1-14]
Emily Massa '12 [1-4, 9-12]
Patrick Hession '13 [5-8, 13-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 15 5 9 13 1 10 10 15 12 5 13 3 15 11 137 Oliver Toole '14 [1-14]
Haley Kirk '15 [1-6, 8-14]
Cam Hutton '14 [7]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 9 4 16 8 9 5 11 14 13 3 7 9 19 17 144 Olin Davis '14 [1-8]
Michael Zonnenberg '15 [9-14]
Bridget Murphy '15 [1-3, 5-6, 8]
Connor Aswad '12 [4, 7]
Laura Walsh-Rogalski '12 [9-14]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 21 21 5 2 3 2 1 11 21 11 17 13 19 149 James Simmons '13
Margaret Craig '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 21 16 20 11 10 7 9 5 10 10 10 15 2 4 150 Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12
Alyson Yee '12
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 20 13 3 7 4 2 15 22 15 16 8 6 17 12 160 Emily Lambert '12
Alexandra Jumper '12
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 17 7 2 20 20 11 5 4 6 7 17 18 20 7 161 Peter Pellegrini '12 [1-14]
Sarah Muzyka '12 [1-8, 11-12]
Mary Clawson '15 [9-10, 13-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 20 8 12 16 9 12 20 4 11 9 22 8 10 164 Andrew Mason '12
Leslie Cowen '13
Brown University Brown University Bears 7 1 12 19 7 20 14 17 9 17 15 5 10 14 167 Tyler Rice '14
Louisa Chafee '14
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 14 14 11 17 5 22 6 16 19 12 4 4 18 13 175 Devin Laviano '13
Chelsea Smith '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 18 11 10 14 14 13 8 13 22 8 16 10 9 15 181 Patrick Kana '12
Catherine Pelo '13
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 22 15 18 16 13 8 13 3 17 20 3 20 3 18 189 Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14
Becker Awqatty '14
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 12 18 17 9 12 12 20 8 5 19 19 11 21 16 199 Philip Alley '12
Lindsey Ludwig '14
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 8 10 13 10 17 15 17 18 3 14 22 16 16 21 200 Kevin Martland '14 [1-10]
Ig Schottlaender '14 [11-14]
Elizabeth Wilsterman '12 [1-3]
Jordan Bothwick '15 [4-14]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 19 9 15 15 22 18 21 10 14 15 20 19 12 8 217 Bradley Milliken '14
Amanda Hamlet '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 5 8 7 22 18 19 19 19 21 22 21 13 5 22 221 Katherine Gullick '12
Iris Xu '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10 19 19 18 21 16 18 12 20 18 14 14 6 20 225 Ian Liberty '14 [1-14]
Ainsley Thomson '13 [1-4, 9-14]
Don Hause Iii '14 [5-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 16 12 22 21 19 21 22 21 18 13 18 21 22 2 248 Matthew Graham '13 [1-14]
Kirsten Corneliussen '13 [1-6, 9-14]
David Oliver '14 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 12 7 4 16 7 3 22 1 2 2 1 3 10 11 101 Sean Bouchard '12 [1-14]
Kelly Stannard '12 [1-2, 7-14]
James Bartlein '15 [3-6]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 16 5 13 14 4 7 5 6 13 14 4 3 7 113 Bernie Roesler '12
Raquel Merchant '12
Boston University Boston University Terriers 17 6 2 1 8 13 2 18 16 15 11 1 2 1 113 Matt Johnson '12 [1-14]
Fiona Gordon '12 [1-4]
Cameron Fraser '14 [5-6]
Phoebe Gittelson '14 [7-8]
Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [9-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11 12 20 6 9 10 15 2 5 1 6 6 9 10 122 Markus Edegran '16
Kristin Rovito '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 3 18 3 10 1 16 20 15 4 10 13 1 8 125 William Hutchings '13
Reeves Bright '12
Boston College Boston College Eagles 9 18 3 5 5 9 1 7 3 9 16 5 19 16 125 Ryan Mullins '13
Kelly Roy '13
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 13 10 13 14 1 7 3 3 7 16 5 15 16 6 129 Peter Miller '13 [1-14]
Marina Gluckman '12 [1-2, 7-14]
Ryan Daly '14 [3-6]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 1 1 18 3 19 9 9 8 6 9 19 13 15 131 Hans Henken '15
Natalie Urban '15
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 14 16 21 6 11 8 6 1 3 17 7 6 19 140 Louis Padnos '14 [1-14]
Morgan Gould '14 [1-3, 7-14]
Michael Deady '14 [4-6]
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 2 17 17 13 6 4 14 4 12 18 11 5 13 142 Drew Shea '14
Michael Yanagisawa '13
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 10 8 12 15 17 5 18 4 10 5 21 2 17 3 147 Morgan Kiss '15 [1-4, 9-14]
Rob Struckett '12 [5-8]
Anna Han '14 [1-3, 5-14]
Madeline Yozwiak '14 [4]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 14 4 8 2 11 8 10 13 13 20 4 17 22 9 155
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 20 19 10 7 2 21 17 10 12 21 3 8 15 12 177 Ryan Seago '14
Amanda Baker '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 8 21 14 20 16 18 11 8 9 17 19 10 4 5 180 Chloe Lepert '15
Jacqueline Soegaard '12
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 5 9 4 18 20 13 11 19 8 8 16 21 22 181 Conor Lodge '14
Estelle Beguin '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 18 11 6 8 4 2 19 19 20 18 13 18 12 14 182 Wick Dudley '12
Katherine Gluskin '13
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 15 9 19 9 20 16 12 16 11 7 2 14 14 20 184 Daniel Eichler '13
Annalee Leggett '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 16 15 21 10 15 15 5 21 17 14 7 9 20 2 187 Michael Drumm '15 [1-14]
Sarah Pierson '14 [1-3, 6-14]
Ansel Duff '15 [4-5]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 19 13 7 11 12 17 14 12 22 22 12 12 7 17 197 Kyle Carney '13
Mary Zeolla '13
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 4 20 22 22 21 12 6 17 18 10 20 22 8 4 206 Steven Pelissier '14 [1-8]
Kimberly Kaull '13 [9-14]
Kristina Landsvik '12 [1-2, 5-8]
Erin Pierce '12 [3-4, 9-14]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 22 17 15 12 22 14 20 22 14 11 22 21 18 21 251 Dylan Finneran '15
Jaimie Chicoine '14
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 21 22 11 19 19 22 21 15 21 19 15 20 11 18 254 Duncan Howes '15
Juliet Levine '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles113355779911111313
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers442224242222202018181616
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33557799111113131515
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears6644222424222220201818
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels5577991111131315151717
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red779911111313151517171919
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green88664422242422222020
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas99111113131515171719192121
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson10108866442224242222
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1111131315151717191921212323
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines12121010886644222424
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers13131515171719192121232311
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen14141212101088664422
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies151517171919212123231133
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams212123231133557799
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1616141412121010886644
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks181816161414121210108866
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1717191921212323113355
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal19192121232311335577
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos20201818161614141212101088
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts2222202018181616141412121010
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs232311335577991111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles22446688101012121414
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers331123232121191917171515
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears4466881010121214141616
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears5533112323212119191717
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels668810101212141416161818
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red88101012121414161618182020
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green77553311232321211919
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas1010121214141616181820202222
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson997755331123232121
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1212141416161818202022222424
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines111199775533112323
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers14141616181820202222242422
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen131311119977553311
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies161618182020222224242244
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams22222424224466881010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks15151313111199775533
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1717151513131111997755
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1818202022222424224466
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal20202222242422446688
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos191917171515131311119977
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts21211919171715151313111199
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs24242244668810101212
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston College Boston College Anne Haeger '12 [1-14] Emily Massa '12 [1-4, 9-12]
Patrick Hession '13 [5-8, 13-14]
Eagles Ryan Mullins '13 Kelly Roy '13
Boston University Boston University Ryan Pesch '12 [1-14] Alejandra Higgins '13 [1-4, 6, 8-14]
Fiona Gordon '12 [5, 7]
Terriers Matt Johnson '12 [1-14] Fiona Gordon '12 [1-4]
Cameron Fraser '14 [5-6]
Phoebe Gittelson '14 [7-8]
Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [9-14]
Brown University Brown University Tyler Rice '14 Louisa Chafee '14
Bears Drew Shea '14 Michael Yanagisawa '13
Connecticut College Connecticut College Kevin Martland '14 [1-10]
Ig Schottlaender '14 [11-14]		 Elizabeth Wilsterman '12 [1-3]
Jordan Bothwick '15 [4-14]
Camels Peter Miller '13 [1-14] Marina Gluckman '12 [1-2, 7-14]
Ryan Daly '14 [3-6]
Cornell University Cornell University Philip Alley '12 Lindsey Ludwig '14
Big Red Duncan Howes '15 Juliet Levine '14
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sam Williams '12 [1-14] Matthew Habig '13 [1-6, 8-14]
Ian Storck '15 [7]
Big Green Bernie Roesler '12 Raquel Merchant '12
Georgetown University Georgetown University Andrew Mason '12 Leslie Cowen '13
Hoyas Daniel Eichler '13 Annalee Leggett '13
Harvard University Harvard University Emily Lambert '12 Alexandra Jumper '12
Crimson Michael Drumm '15 [1-14] Sarah Pierson '14 [1-3, 6-14]
Ansel Duff '15 [4-5]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Patrick Kana '12 Catherine Pelo '13
Statesmen Louis Padnos '14 [1-14] Morgan Gould '14 [1-3, 7-14]
Michael Deady '14 [4-6]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Katherine Gullick '12 Iris Xu '14
Beavers Chloe Lepert '15 Jacqueline Soegaard '12
Northeastern University Northeastern University Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14 Becker Awqatty '14
Huskies Conor Lodge '14 Estelle Beguin '14
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Alec Anderson '13 [1-14] Sophie Bellacosa '13 [1-3, 9-12, 14]
Tyler Wilson '12 [4-8, 13]
Hawks Sean Bouchard '12 [1-14] Kelly Stannard '12 [1-2, 7-14]
James Bartlein '15 [3-6]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Peter Pellegrini '12 [1-14] Sarah Muzyka '12 [1-8, 11-12]
Mary Clawson '15 [9-10, 13-14]
Seahawks Kyle Carney '13 Mary Zeolla '13
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Ian Liberty '14 [1-14] Ainsley Thomson '13 [1-4, 9-14]
Don Hause Iii '14 [5-8]
Seahawks Wick Dudley '12 Katherine Gluskin '13
Stanford University Stanford University Oliver Toole '14 [1-14] Haley Kirk '15 [1-6, 8-14]
Cam Hutton '14 [7]
Cardinal Hans Henken '15 Natalie Urban '15
Tufts University Tufts University Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 Alyson Yee '12
Jumbos William Hutchings '13 Reeves Bright '12
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bradley Milliken '14 Amanda Hamlet '12
Bears Dylan Finneran '15 Jaimie Chicoine '14
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Devin Laviano '13 Chelsea Smith '14
Midshipmen Markus Edegran '16 Kristin Rovito '14
University of Michigan University of Michigan Matthew Graham '13 [1-14] Kirsten Corneliussen '13 [1-6, 9-14]
David Oliver '14 [7-8]
Wolverines Ryan Seago '14 Amanda Baker '12
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island James Simmons '13 Margaret Craig '13
Rams
University of Vermont University of Vermont Olin Davis '14 [1-8]
Michael Zonnenberg '15 [9-14]		 Bridget Murphy '15 [1-3, 5-6, 8]
Connor Aswad '12 [4, 7]
Laura Walsh-Rogalski '12 [9-14]
Catamounts Steven Pelissier '14 [1-8]
Kimberly Kaull '13 [9-14]		 Kristina Landsvik '12 [1-2, 5-8]
Erin Pierce '12 [3-4, 9-14]
Yale University Yale University Graham Landy '15 [1-14] Katherine Gaumond '15 [1-4, 8-14]
Madeline Yozwiak '14 [5-7]
Bulldogs Morgan Kiss '15 [1-4, 9-14]
Rob Struckett '12 [5-8]		 Anna Han '14 [1-3, 5-14]
Madeline Yozwiak '14 [4]

Conditions — 10/15/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1002.9 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.5 kn
avg  ·  max 16.1 kn
Gusts to 38.9 kn
From SW (228°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1002.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 16 kn · W 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Dartmouth: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.16 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Dartmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (34 labelled days at Dartmouth).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →