Northeastern University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.79 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 12 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 (fleet 3.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–22 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 16–22 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 16–22 against 11.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.13 | 4.42 | 12–6 | 7.7 | +1.29 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.78 | 3.03 | 4–16 | 3.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 3.35 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 2.50 |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 3.16 |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.5 | 2.96 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 3.73 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.7 | 3.41 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.83 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 3.16 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 3.22 |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.6 | 2.98 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.6 | 3.34 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.3 | 2.72 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 3.30 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | 2.04 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.7 | 3.00 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 3.53 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.6 | 2.81 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 2.79 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 1.72 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.8 | 2.82 |
| Midweek 'Fly - Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 2.06 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.29 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 3.05 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.7 | 3.19 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 2.89 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 3.41 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.2 | 2.71 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.1 | 2.57 |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.11 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.5 | 3.10 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.1 | 1.19 |
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 2.84 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 3.62 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.6 | 3.19 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.5 | 2.66 |
| Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 2.05 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.9 | 1.96 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 8.7 | 2.01 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 2.04 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 2.94 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.0 | 2.41 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | 1.69 |
| New England Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.5 | 1.35 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 1.36 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy- Greater Boston | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.2 | 1.07 |
| Professor Noringer | Crew | A | 6 | 5.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
