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Harvard Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 22 15 37
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 18 35 53
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 28 32 60
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 19 46 65
5 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 41 35 76
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 61 30 91
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 50 42 92
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 39 65 104
9 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 48 74 122
10 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 61 77 138
11 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 80 85 165
12 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 79 88 167
SchoolTeam R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 3 1 3 2 2 2 5 18 Cecilia Strombeck '11
Kristin Altreuter '14
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 4 1 5 1 1 2 19 Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14
Estelle Beguin '14
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 2 3 2 1 7 4 3 22 Ryan Byrne '13
Nicholas Gordon '13
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 6 2 5 3 8 3 1 28 Sky Adams '14
Brandon Kaufmann '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 1 9 6 8 3 5 7 39 Tevis Nichols '12
Jacqueline Soegaard '12
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 5 7 7 4 6 8 41 Jacob Tronaas '12
Jessica Nelson '14
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 7 7 8 4 5 8 9 48 Nick Waldo '13
Jinyan Zang '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 8 9 6 6 7 6 50 Matthew Russell '13
Marina Miaoulis '12
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 9 6 4 10 10 12 10 61 Meghan Breslin-Jewer '11 [2-6]
Jacob Hardy '13 [7-8]
Jacob Hardy '13 [2-6]
Meghan Breslin-Jewer '11 [7-8]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 10 10 10 9 9 9 4 61 Conor Fowler '14
Veronica Kyrk '14
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 11 11 11 12 12 10 12 79 Elizabeth Deveau '13
Christy Maloney '12
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 80 William Rowland '13
Peter Degolia '11
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 1 1 15 Sam Millham '13
Alice Kenney '14
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 7 5 1 1 4 6 3 30 Ian Towill '14
Catherine Droser '13
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 2 6 4 6 4 1 3 6 32 Emmett Weeks '14
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 3 7 4 2 2 4 9 35 William Howard '14
Katerina Anderson '14
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 8 5 2 3 5 8 2 2 35 Jacob Tower '11
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 4 6 9 6 3 5 4 42 Mariel Marchand '13
Barbara Murray '14
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 2 3 5 8 9 8 5 46 Vincent Marchetto '12
Angela Lukstein '11
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 7 8 12 7 9 7 7 8 65 Neil Forrester '12
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 10 9 10 8 11 10 9 7 74 Luke O'Connor '14
Sarah Pierson '14
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 9 12 9 11 10 6 10 10 77 Josh Basseches '12
Leigh Nusbaum '11
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 11 10 8 10 12 11 12 11 85 Anna Briggs '12
James Pates '12
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 12 11 11 12 7 12 11 12 88 William Trumper '11
Anne Little '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1335577
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges2446688
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 13557799
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2466881010
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears577991111
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 168810101212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 279911111313
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers81010121211
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers91111131322
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1012121133
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1113132244
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos13224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers22446688
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges33557799
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 14466881010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 25577991111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears668810101212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 1779911111313
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 2881010121211
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers991111131322
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers101012121133
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats111113132244
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1212113355
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos11335577

Conditions — 09/12/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From E (83°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.7 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1019.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →