138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy

HostMIT
Date10/22/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring3 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	C	TOT
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	63	44	47	154
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	77	59	50	186
3	University of Vermont	Catamounts	77	54	63	194
4	Yale University	Bulldogs	79	89	69	237
5	Boston University	Terriers	69	82	108	259
6	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	97	104	59	260
7	Boston College	Eagles	93	88	86	267
8	Brown University	Bears	101	117	50	268
9	Roger Williams University	Hawks	86	116	76	278
10	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	91	96	92	279
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	95	71	122	288
12	Harvard University	Crimson	93	117	110	320
13	Northeastern University	Huskies	108	86	133	327
14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	91	110	132	333
15	Providence College	Friars	119	109	150	378
16	University of Connecticut	Huskies	158	155	153	466

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos	1	15	3	6	11	2	4	1	7	9	4	63	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 Alyson Yee '12
Boston University	Terriers	13	1	1	1	1	4	8	7	13	15	5	69	Ryan Pesch '12 Alejandra Higgins '13
University of Vermont	Catamounts	4	4	13	11	2	10	7	3	3	11	9	77	Jordan Factor '14 Amanda Donohue '13
Dartmouth College	Big Green	11	9	2	5	3	6	1	2	10	14	14	77	Bernie Roesler '12 Raquel Merchant '12
Yale University	Bulldogs	9	16	6	3	4	16	13	4	4	1	3	79	Graham Landy '15 Amanda Salvesen '14
Roger Williams University	Hawks	5	2	11	10	15	8	10	6	5	2	12	86	William Macdonald '15 Bianca Rom '13
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	3	12	7	9	8	14	5	10	9	13	1	91	Peter Pellegrini '12 Sarah Muzyka '12
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	6	5	9	7	16	7	6	13	8	3	11	91	Bradley Milliken '14 Amanda Hamlet '12
Harvard University	Crimson	10	11	5	14	6	13	3	5	15	5	6	93	Brian Drumm '15 Nicholas Gordon '13
Boston College	Eagles	14	10	8	4	7	3	15	14	1	10	7	93	Ryan Mullins '13 Kelly Roy '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	15	8	12	2	5	9	2	12	6	8	16	95	Eamon Glackin '12 [1-11] Patricia Saylor '14 [1-10] Kelden Pehr '13 [11]
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	7	3	14	13	9	11	12	11	2	7	8	97	Peter Edmunds '14 Mae Speight '13
Brown University	Bears	8	14	10	15	13	5	9	9	12	4	2	101	Tommy Fink '13 Ashley Noble '13
Northeastern University	Huskies	2	7	4	8	10	12	16	DSQ	11	6	15	108	Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14 Janelle Veary '15
Providence College	Friars	12	6	15	12	14	1	11	8	14	16	10	119	Ian Sutherland '12 Alexandra Zweig '13
University of Connecticut	Huskies	16	13	16	16	12	15	14	15	16	12	13	158	Thomas Presti '13 Eleanor Leonard '13

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos	5	3	3	2	4	3	8	3	4	2	7	44	William Hutchings '13 Reeves Bright '12
University of Vermont	Catamounts	1	2	1	1	3	9	7	15	5	1	9	54	Michael Zonnenberg '15 Laura Walsh-Rogalski '12
Dartmouth College	Big Green	4	1	13	10	6	6	2	2	8	5	2	59	John Renehan '13 Avery Plough '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	3	12	9	4	1	4	9	1	11	14	3	71	David Alfonso '14 Iris Xu '14
Boston University	Terriers	2	6	12	12	9	10	4	14	6	6	1	82	Matt Johnson '12 Fiona Gordon '12
Northeastern University	Huskies	8	14	11	15	2	2	3	5	7	4	15	86	Conor Lodge '14 [1-11] Becker Awqatty '14 [1-4] Estelle Beguin '14 [5-11]
Boston College	Eagles	16	8	5	3	11	1	1	8	14	16	5	88	Ian Donahue '12 Isabelle Salvaterra '14
Yale University	Bulldogs	7	7	2	8	13	13	5	13	3	10	8	89	Rob Struckett '12 Anna Han '14
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	9	16	8	7	14	11	10	6	2	9	4	96	Kyle Carney '13 Baillie Lawless '15
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11	5	10	13	7	5	14	11	10	7	11	104	Jeff Goodrich '12 Clare-Elizabeth Henry '12
Providence College	Friars	6	9	4	6	12	14	11	7	15	12	13	109	Mike Bloomstine '13 Aimee Kelleher '13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	14	10	15	5	5	7	13	4	12	11	14	110	William Howard '14 Liz Runci '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	10	4	14	9	16	15	15	9	1	13	10	116	Andrew Tamblyn '13 Daniel Goldman '13
Brown University	Bears	12	13	7	11	15	8	12	12	13	8	6	117	Drew Shea '14 Lydia Whiteford '15
Harvard University	Crimson	13	11	6	14	10	12	6	16	9	3	DNS	117	Caitlin Watson '14 Emma Smith '15
University of Connecticut	Huskies	15	15	16	16	8	16	16	10	16	15	12	155	Michael Rottier '15 Alexandra Arendt '15

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos	2	5	3	6	7	5	2	1	6	2	8	47	David Liebenberg '14 Sam Madden '15
Dartmouth College	Big Green	1	4	5	2	5	3	8	5	10	3	4	50	Deirdre Lambert '15 Carissa Crawford '14
Brown University	Bears	4	1	7	7	6	4	3	9	2	4	3	50	Lucas Adams '15 Sarah Ebert '12
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6	2	1	1	4	9	10	3	8	14	1	59	Kaylee Schwitzer '15 Ayaka Okawa '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	3	3	2	3	1	2	9	4	16	9	11	63	Michael Booker '15 Adriana Kopp '12
Yale University	Bulldogs	9	6	6	14	2	12	7	2	3	6	2	69	Max Nickbarg '14 Genoa Warner '12
Roger Williams University	Hawks	5	9	10	4	9	1	4	11	4	13	6	76	Henry Vogel '15 Chelsea Maguire '13
Boston College	Eagles	7	8	14	5	12	7	5	13	1	5	9	86	Domenic Bove '15 Laura Mckenna '13
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	8	13	4	15	8	6	16	7	7	1	7	92	Robert Lippincott '14 Jennifer Poole '14
Boston University	Terriers	10	14	8	9	3	10	13	14	5	10	12	108	Trevor Burd '12 [1-10] Michael Saldi '15 [11] Lexi Pline '19 [1-10] Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [11]
Harvard University	Crimson	11	15	9	8	14	11	1	6	14	11	10	110	Luke O'Connor '14 Alice Kenney '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Beavers	12	12	11	12	10	15	11	8	9	DSQ	5	122	Chloe Lepert '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11] Steven Drapcho '13 [3-4, 7-8] Jacqueline Soegaard '12 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11] Taylor Burfield '13 [3-4, 7-8]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	14	7	13	11	11	16	12	10	12	12	14	132	Dylan Finneran '15 Jaimie Chicoine '14
Northeastern University	Huskies	15	16	12	10	13	8	6	12	13	15	13	133	Vincent Marchetto '12 [1-7, 11] Tasha Greenwood '15 [8-10] Tasha Greenwood '15 [1-7] Carolyn Marsh '13 [8-10] Becker Awqatty '14 [11]
Providence College	Friars	13	11	15	13	16	13	14	15	15	8	DNF	150	Carl Lichtenfels '12 Brigitte Spillane '12
University of Connecticut	Huskies	16	10	16	16	15	14	15	16	11	7	DNF	153	Colin Silverio '12 Catherine Stavola '14

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6
Boston University Terriers	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	20	20	19
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	1	1	20	20	19	19	14	14	13
Brown University Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
University of Connecticut Huskies	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14
Providence College Friars	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5
Roger Williams University Hawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	19	19	20
Salve Regina University Seahawks	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7
Tufts University Jumbos	13	13	14	14	19	19	20	20	1	1	2
University of Vermont Catamounts	19	19	20	20	1	1	2	2	3	3	4
Yale University Bulldogs	20	20	19	19	14	14	13	13	12	12	11

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6
Boston University Terriers	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	20	20	19
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	1	1	20	20	19	19	14	14	13
Brown University Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
University of Connecticut Huskies	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14
Providence College Friars	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5
Roger Williams University Hawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	19	19	20
Salve Regina University Seahawks	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7
Tufts University Jumbos	13	13	14	14	19	19	20	20	1	1	2
University of Vermont Catamounts	19	19	20	20	1	1	2	2	3	3	4
Yale University Bulldogs	20	20	19	19	14	14	13	13	12	12	11

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C	10C	11C
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6
Boston University Terriers	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	20	20	19
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2	2	1	1	20	20	19	19	14	14	13
Brown University Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
University of Connecticut Huskies	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14
Providence College Friars	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5
Roger Williams University Hawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	19	19	20
Salve Regina University Seahawks	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7
Tufts University Jumbos	13	13	14	14	19	19	20	20	1	1	2
University of Vermont Catamounts	19	19	20	20	1	1	2	2	3	3	4
Yale University Bulldogs	20	20	19	19	14	14	13	13	12	12	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Ryan Mullins '13	Kelly Roy '13
Eagles	Ian Donahue '12	Isabelle Salvaterra '14
	Domenic Bove '15	Laura Mckenna '13
Boston University	Ryan Pesch '12	Alejandra Higgins '13
Terriers	Matt Johnson '12	Fiona Gordon '12
	Trevor Burd '12 [1-10] Michael Saldi '15 [11]	Lexi Pline '19 [1-10] Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [11]
Bowdoin College	Peter Edmunds '14	Mae Speight '13
Polar Bears	Jeff Goodrich '12	Clare-Elizabeth Henry '12
	Kaylee Schwitzer '15	Ayaka Okawa '14
Brown University	Tommy Fink '13	Ashley Noble '13
Bears	Drew Shea '14	Lydia Whiteford '15
	Lucas Adams '15	Sarah Ebert '12
Dartmouth College	Bernie Roesler '12	Raquel Merchant '12
Big Green	John Renehan '13	Avery Plough '14
	Deirdre Lambert '15	Carissa Crawford '14
Harvard University	Brian Drumm '15	Nicholas Gordon '13
Crimson	Caitlin Watson '14	Emma Smith '15
	Luke O'Connor '14	Alice Kenney '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eamon Glackin '12 [1-11]	Patricia Saylor '14 [1-10] Kelden Pehr '13 [11]
Beavers	David Alfonso '14	Iris Xu '14
	Chloe Lepert '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11] Steven Drapcho '13 [3-4, 7-8]	Jacqueline Soegaard '12 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11] Taylor Burfield '13 [3-4, 7-8]
Northeastern University	Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14	Janelle Veary '15
Huskies	Conor Lodge '14 [1-11]	Becker Awqatty '14 [1-4] Estelle Beguin '14 [5-11]
	Vincent Marchetto '12 [1-7, 11] Tasha Greenwood '15 [8-10]	Tasha Greenwood '15 [1-7] Carolyn Marsh '13 [8-10] Becker Awqatty '14 [11]
Providence College	Ian Sutherland '12	Alexandra Zweig '13
Friars	Mike Bloomstine '13	Aimee Kelleher '13
	Carl Lichtenfels '12	Brigitte Spillane '12
Roger Williams University	William Macdonald '15	Bianca Rom '13
Hawks	Andrew Tamblyn '13	Daniel Goldman '13
	Henry Vogel '15	Chelsea Maguire '13
Salve Regina University	Peter Pellegrini '12	Sarah Muzyka '12
Seahawks	Kyle Carney '13	Baillie Lawless '15
	Robert Lippincott '14	Jennifer Poole '14
Tufts University	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12	Alyson Yee '12
Jumbos	William Hutchings '13	Reeves Bright '12
	David Liebenberg '14	Sam Madden '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bradley Milliken '14	Amanda Hamlet '12
Bears	William Howard '14	Liz Runci '15
	Dylan Finneran '15	Jaimie Chicoine '14
University of Connecticut	Thomas Presti '13	Eleanor Leonard '13
Huskies	Michael Rottier '15	Alexandra Arendt '15
	Colin Silverio '12	Catherine Stavola '14
University of Vermont	Jordan Factor '14	Amanda Donohue '13
Catamounts	Michael Zonnenberg '15	Laura Walsh-Rogalski '12
	Michael Booker '15	Adriana Kopp '12
Yale University	Graham Landy '15	Amanda Salvesen '14
Bulldogs	Rob Struckett '12	Anna Han '14
	Max Nickbarg '14	Genoa Warner '12

Conditions — 10/22/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 5.7 kn

Gusts to 12.4 kn

From W (274°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1016.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · W 6 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.16

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.22 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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