Boston University '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 65.77 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 17 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.13 (fleet 2.95) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–28 (15%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 2–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 5–28 against 7.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.78 | 1.95 | 3–12 | 5.0 | −0.83 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.41 | 2.33 | 2–16 | 2.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.9 | 3.62 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 10.4 | 2.80 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.2 | 2.71 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 2.20 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.7 | 3.82 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 3.01 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.9 | 2.82 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.0 | 3.08 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 14 | 10.6 | 1.19 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.3 | 2.58 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 4 | 7.5 | 2.93 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 2.20 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 2.94 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 1.48 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Chris Loder | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.4 | 2.50 |
| Brian Doyle Open | Crew | B | 6 | 2.2 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 1.96 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.06 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.6 | 1.81 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 1.80 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 2.46 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.8 | 0.38 |
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 11.3 | — |
| 72nd Oberg Trophy @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.1 | 1.85 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 2.44 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 11.8 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | 2.24 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 1 | 12.0 | — |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.1 | 2.85 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.4 | 2.85 |
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.6 | 1.88 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 2.29 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 2.79 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.7 | 3.55 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
