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Brian Doyle Open

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 6 13 19
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 18 13 31
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 18 19 37
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 25 17 42
5 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 40 36 76
6 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 35 49 84
7 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 45 42 87
8 Williams College Williams College Ephs 48 45 93
9 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 52 51 103
10 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 2 55 56 111
11 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 1 55 59 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Hunter Johnstone '16 [1-6]
Victor Hollenberg '14 [1-2]
Evan Read '16 [3-6]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 2 3 3 2 6 18 Alejandro Bancalari '13
Benjamin Li '17
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 4 5 2 2 3 2 18 Thomas Gallagher '16
Caitlin Martin '15
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 3 4 5 7 3 25 Ann Sager '13 [1-6]
Chelsea Haskell '15 [1-4]
Molly Goelzer '15 [5-6]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 5 9 5 6 6 4 35 Nicholas Dragone '14
Nathaniel Blackford '16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 7 10 6 4 5 8 40 Priscilla Stoll '15
Kaitlyn Nanartowich '14
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 6 8 10 7 9 5 45 Winsor Williams '13
Emily Greagori '13
Williams College Williams College Ephs 9 7 7 8 10 7 48 Joshua Revkin '13
Caroline Kaufman '15
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 8 6 11 9 8 10 52 Kelley Haverstock '14 [1-2]
Robert Mcmullen '13 [3-6]
Christopher Mark '14 [1-2]
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 1 10 4 8 11 11 11 55 Chase Hochman '14
Joaquin Benares '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 2 DNF 11 9 10 4 9 55 Elaine Maskus '15
Nina Gerona '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 1 3 4 2 2 13 Conor Fowler '14
Michael Saldi '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 3 4 1 1 3 1 13 Sarah Williams '16
Caroline Gray '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 4 3 2 2 1 5 17 William Dykes '15 [1-6]
Emily Chase '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Chelsea Haskell '15 [3-4]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 2 2 4 3 5 3 19 Dylan Kavookjian '16
Valentina Semenova '13
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5 6 7 5 6 7 36 Robert Queisser '16
Alexander Hunt '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 7 5 5 9 7 9 42 Gregory Henkelman '13
Erin Meltzer '14
Williams College Williams College Ephs 6 8 6 DNF 9 4 45 Jorge Castro '16
Allison Carter '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers DNS 7 8 6 8 8 49 Nicole Hoesterey '13
Paulina Choh '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue DNS 9 10 10 4 6 51 Emma Ambrogi '16
Vicky Zeamer '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 2 8 11 9 7 11 10 56 Kellyn Maves '16
Rachel Kurlander '16
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 1 9 10 11 8 10 11 59 William Thomas '15
Deren Ertas '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers112233
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 1223344
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 2334455
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats445566
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers667788
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers556677
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats778899
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue88991010
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals 19910101111
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals 21010111111
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs11111122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers112233
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 1223344
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 2334455
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats445566
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers667788
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers556677
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats778899
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue88991010
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals 19910101111
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals 21010111111
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs11111122

Conditions — 04/27/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1029.1 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From SE (141°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1029.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn · S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Dartmouth: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Dartmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (34 labelled days at Dartmouth).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →