Dartmouth College '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 65.26 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 12 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.64 (fleet 3.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–2 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 8–2 against 4.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.97 | 4.77 | 8–2 | 4.2 | +1.80 | 4.6 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 3.37 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.1 | 4.31 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.2 | 3.29 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 3.56 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 4.20 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.6 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.2 | 3.09 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.8 | 4.00 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 4.09 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.2 | 3.35 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.1 | 4.10 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.9 | 3.82 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Reserve | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.2 | 4.06 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.5 | 3.43 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.5 | 4.17 |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 3.00 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.4 | 2.78 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.6 | 2.22 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 2.37 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.7 | 3.52 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.3 | 3.05 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.1 | 3.35 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.4 | 2.72 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.4 | 3.45 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.1 | 2.73 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 3.91 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 2.96 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 8.2 | 2.96 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 3.16 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 3.08 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | 3.07 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.17 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 4.11 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.4 | 2.13 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 3.35 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 0.53 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Crew | A | 12 | 3.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.6 | 2.90 |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 2.26 |
| Brian Doyle Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 2.73 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 17 | 11.5 | 1.68 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 2.55 |
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.8 | -0.22 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.29 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | 1.96 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.8 | 1.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
