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Central Series

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 153
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 166
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 178
4 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 182
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 189
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 269
7 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 333
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Boston College Boston College Eagles B 3 14 7 5 4 6 3 6 3 2 3 6 9 4 75 Ryan Morrison '14
Savanna Brown '16
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 B 11 10 2 9 1 8 6 2 6 7 5 2 3 3 75 Hunter Johnstone '16
Caroline Gray '16
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 A 2 2 1 4 11 2 12 3 11 4 6 1 6 13 78 Colin Murphy '15
Emily Petno '16
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels A 9 1 3 10 5 4 1 11 1 9 4 8 10 2 78 Gabriel Salk '14
Alix Israel '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 B 6 4 8 2 12 7 4 8 8 1 10 4 2 5 81 Sarah Williams '16
Hope Wilson '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 1 7 13 7 2 1 2 9 4 5 9 5 7 11 83 Margaret Bacon '14
Erin Bondy '15
Boston College Boston College Eagles A 5 9 9 8 3 14 9 4 5 6 1 7 5 6 91 Marcos Darcy '16
Emily Schalka '15
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels B 7 5 4 1 10 5 11 1 10 12 11 14 1 8 100 Bryce Kopp '16
Grace Medley '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 A 4 13 5 3 8 13 10 5 2 3 8 12 8 7 101 Evan Read '16
Alexa Krupp '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 8 12 11 11 6 10 5 14 9 10 2 3 4 1 106 Kate Levinson '15
Katrina Miaoulis '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 14 6 10 6 7 3 7 7 7 8 7 10 12 10 114 Charles Proctor '14
Madeline Luce '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya B 12 3 12 14 9 11 8 10 13 14 13 11 13 12 155 Amanda Sommi '16
Mackenzie Loy '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 10 8 14 13 13 9 14 13 14 13 12 9 11 9 162 Ames Lyman '14
Nicholas Gordon '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 13 11 6 12 14 12 13 12 12 11 14 13 14 14 171 Matthew Clarida '16
Deirdre Buckley '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles11111111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1515151515151515151515151515
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 177777777777777
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 299999999999999
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson1313131313131313131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya55555555555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos33333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles22222222222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1616161616161616161616161616
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 188888888888888
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green 21010101010101010101010101010
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson1414141414141414141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya66666666666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos44444444444444

Conditions — 10/20/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1004.1 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From S (191°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine7.2 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1004.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · W 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boston College: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →