Tufts University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.26 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.112 rating points from 25 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.21 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 19 | Fall 2012 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.13 (fleet 2.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 108–47 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 67–24 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 2 | 18–7 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 17–11 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (116 matches) the record is 85–31 against 86.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.95 | 5.95 | 18–0 | 15.1 | ≥+3.00 | 4.8 | 3% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.87 | 3.28 | 14–3 | 13.0 | +0.41 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.55 | 11–7 | 12.3 | −0.37 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.99 | 3.40 | 10–5 | 8.9 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 3.00 | 1.84 | 9–7 | 12.5 | −1.15 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 3.59 | 5–2 | 4.2 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2013-10-20 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.95 | 2.30 | 10–2 | 10.8 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.86 | 2.28 | 8–5 | 9.2 | −0.58 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Baby 'Bos - Tufts Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 3.17 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ryan Richards Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 5 | 10.2 | 2.72 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ryan Richards (Tufts) Alumni Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.2 | 1.83 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| 10th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.6 | 1.07 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.4 | 3.00 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.4 | 2.85 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 8.3 | 2.68 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 2.25 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 4.46 |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.1 | 2.87 |
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.0 | 2.83 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.3 | 2.58 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | 1.02 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.0 | 3.33 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Saturday Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 1.84 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.1 | 1.51 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 1.80 |
| Dark of Night | Crew | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | -0.17 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 2.62 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.7 | 0.16 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.7 | 2.36 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.1 | 2.23 |
| Clark Open Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.9 | 2.55 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.5 | 2.66 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 9.5 | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | 1.60 |
| Harry Anderson | Crew | A | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| Big Apple Classic/Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.6 | 3.21 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | B | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.7 | 2.15 |
| Savin Hill Invitational | Crew | B | 6 | 2.5 | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Protest Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 2.00 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 1.92 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.2 | 1.43 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
