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# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 15–5
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 14–6
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 13–7
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 11–9
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4–16
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 3–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,294 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 40 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.555 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.21 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		49.07
school −0.11		David Larson / Jordan Ladd
David Alfonso / Iris Xu 3.11
Joseph Paggi / Christopher Ford 2.82		51%11–5 (69%)+2.9
2Brown University
Bears		29.35
school +0.18		Pearson Potts / Olivia Lord 3.14
Drew Shea / Katherine Sudol 2.96
Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 2.92		58%11–5 (69%)+1.8
3Tufts University
Jumbos 1		110.17
school +0.16, home +0.31		Charles Proctor / Elizabeth Keys 3.00
Willem Sandberg / Mara Porter 3.42
Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.24		78%9–7 (56%)−3.5
4University of Rhode Island
Rams		39.27
school +0.33		Caleb Armstrong / Elizabeth Durgin 3.23
Matthew Coughlin / Kaitlyn Norton 3.01
Samuel Cushing / Matthew Sola 2.52		55%8–8 (50%)−0.9
6Boston University
Terriers		56.96Elizabeth Glivinski / Keeton Leisure
Erica Lush / Anna Booras
Hannah Polster / Margaret Swanson		8%1–15 (6%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers9.0710.0211–58.1+0.941.99%
2Brown University Bears9.359.9411–59.2+0.590.823%
6Boston University Terriers6.966.691–151.3−0.270.174%
4University of Rhode Island Rams9.278.998–88.9−0.280.278%
3Tufts University Jumbos 110.179.029–712.5−1.153.199%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
David LarsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.763.7011–58.1+0.941.99%
David AlfonsoMassachusetts Institute of Technology3.114.0611–58.1+0.941.99%
Joseph PaggiMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.823.7611–58.1+0.941.99%
Drew SheaBrown University2.963.5511–59.2+0.590.823%
Nathan AllmanBrown University2.923.5011–59.2+0.590.823%
Elizabeth GlivinskiBoston University2.231.961–151.3−0.270.174%
Erica LushBoston University2.081.821–151.3−0.270.174%
Hannah PolsterBoston University2.251.981–151.3−0.270.174%
Matthew CoughlinUniversity of Rhode Island3.012.738–88.9−0.280.278%
Samuel CushingUniversity of Rhode Island2.522.248–88.9−0.280.278%
Charles ProctorTufts University3.001.849–712.5−1.153.199%
Willem SandbergTufts University3.422.269–712.5−1.153.199%
Dan NickersonTufts University3.242.099–712.5−1.153.199%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tufts University Jumbos 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers82%
12Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers94%
13Tufts University Jumbos 1University of Rhode Island Rams74%
14Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBoston University Terriers89%
15Tufts University Jumbos 1Brown University Bears71%
16University of Rhode Island RamsBoston University Terriers91%
17Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersUniversity of Rhode Island Rams42%upset
18Tufts University Jumbos 1Boston University Terriers96%
19Brown University BearsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams51%
110Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers59%
216Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 124%upset
217Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers92%
218Tufts University Jumbos 1University of Rhode Island Rams72%
219Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers57%
220Boston University TerriersUniversity of Rhode Island Rams9%upset
221Tufts University Jumbos 1Brown University Bears70%
222University of Rhode Island RamsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers55%
223Tufts University Jumbos 1Boston University Terriers96%
224Brown University BearsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams52%
225Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBoston University Terriers89%
331Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 126%upset
332Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers91%
334Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 131%upset
335University of Rhode Island RamsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers53%
337University of Rhode Island RamsTufts University Jumbos 129%upset
339Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBoston University Terriers90%
340University of Rhode Island RamsBrown University Bears48%upset
341Tufts University Jumbos 1Boston University Terriers96%
343University of Rhode Island RamsBoston University Terriers90%
344Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears45%upset
446Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 128%upset
447Brown University BearsBoston University Terriers91%
449Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 132%upset
450Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersUniversity of Rhode Island Rams48%upset
452University of Rhode Island RamsTufts University Jumbos 130%upset
454Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBoston University Terriers90%
455Brown University BearsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams52%
456Tufts University Jumbos 1Boston University Terriers96%
458University of Rhode Island RamsBoston University Terriers90%
459Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears46%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.EngineersBears1Rams2Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–2✕LWWWW
Brown University Bears4–1W✕WWWW
Tufts University Jumbos 15–5LL✕L✕L
University of Rhode Island Rams2–3LLW✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos 25–5LL✕L✕L
Boston University Terriers1–4LLWLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EngineersBears1Rams2Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–2✕LWLWW
Brown University Bears4–1W✕WWWW
Tufts University Jumbos 14–6LL✕L✕L
University of Rhode Island Rams2–3WLW✕WL
Tufts University Jumbos 24–6LL✕L✕L
Boston University Terriers2–3LLWWW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EngineersBears1Rams2Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–1✕WWLWW
Brown University Bears2–3L✕LLLW
Tufts University Jumbos 14–6LW✕L✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams5–0WWW✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos 24–6LW✕L✕W
Boston University Terriers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.EngineersBears1Rams2Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–0✕WWWWW
Brown University Bears4–1L✕WWWW
Tufts University Jumbos 14–6LL✕L✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams2–3LLW✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos 24–6LL✕L✕W
Boston University Terriers0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-5-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
6 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
8 Tufts University Jumbos 1 2-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 1-4-6
9 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
10 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
12 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
13 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
14 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
15 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
16 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 2-4-6
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-3-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-5
19 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
20 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6 def. Brown University Bears 1-2-5 DSQ
22 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
23 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
24 Brown University Bears 3-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-6 DSQ
25 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
26 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
27 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
28 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
29 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
30 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
31 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6
32 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
33 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 2-3-6
34 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-5
35 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
36 Tufts University Jumbos 2 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
37 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-5-6
38 Tufts University Jumbos 2 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
39 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
40 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-4-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-3-6
41 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
42 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-5
43 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
44 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
45 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-6
46 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 4-5-6
47 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
48 Tufts University Jumbos 2 1-3-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-5
49 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-5-6
50 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
51 Tufts University Jumbos 2 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
52 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-5-6
53 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-6
54 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
55 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
56 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
57 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 2-5-6
58 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
59 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
60 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-5

Conditions — 03/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1007.7 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 23°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 10.7 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1007.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →