Massachusetts Institute of Technology '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.51 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 42 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 (fleet 3.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 81–70 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 21–11 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 9–7 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 38–36 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 13–2 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 0–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (137 matches) the record is 81–56 against 75.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.17 | 4.33 | 7–4 | 4.2 | +1.16 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.23 | 2.45 | 14–7 | 16.8 | −0.77 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 3.12 | 9–7 | 9.7 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.92 | 3.33 | 4–7 | 3.2 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.85 | 2.81 | 10–12 | 10.2 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.90 | 2.59 | 4–6 | 4.7 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.02 | 2.42 | 9–6 | 10.6 | −0.60 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 2.82 | 3.76 | 11–5 | 8.1 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.47 | 4.56 | 13–2 | 7.9 | +2.09 | 7.0 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 11.0 | 2.59 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.8 | 3.19 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 3.78 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.4 | 1.59 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.3 | 4.45 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 4.43 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 12.5 | 1.00 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 2.54 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.6 | 4.60 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 5.9 | — |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | 3.13 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.2 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.4 | 3.27 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 8 | 5.8 | 3.75 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.9 | — |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.9 | 3.33 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 13.8 | 1.79 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 7.4 | 3.58 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 2.57 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 17.5 | 1.77 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 1.96 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.3 | 2.59 |
| BDCC Tech Regatta Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 1.6 | 5.09 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.1 | — |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.6 | 2.29 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 3.54 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
