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Phil Harman Cup

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 28 28
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 29 29
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 34 34
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 35 35
5 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 44 44
6 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 47 47
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 48 48
8 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 55 55
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT
Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 1 4 RDG 4 1 7 5 2 28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 6 1 1 3 3 5 4 3 29
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 3 2 6 1 7 1 1 7 34
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 2 7 3 2 4 4 6 5 35
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 7 8 5 2 6 8 2 2 4 44
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 8 4 3 5 8 5 3 3 8 47
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 7 6 4 5 6 8 7 1 48
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 5 5 8 8 7 2 6 8 6 55
School Team Sailors
Boston College Boston College Eagles SkipperWilliam Bailey '15
CrewKatja Sertl '16 [1-8]
CrewDomenic Bove '15
CrewHarry Koeppel '17 [1-8]
Boston University Boston University Terriers SkipperRyan Astwood '16
CrewZachary Vickerson '16 [1-8]
CrewBrendan Cook '16
CrewMargaret Swanson '16 [1-8]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears SkipperWilliam Hawk '18
CrewAlexander Vasiliou '18 [1-8]
CrewLizzy Hamilton '15
CrewChester Jacobs '17 [1-8]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels SkipperAlexander Giordano '15
CrewLuke Andersen '18 [1-8]
CrewEllis Tonissi '15
CrewQuinn Andersen '18 [1-8]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners SkipperHollister Poole '15
CrewBenjamin Sturmer '18 [1-8]
CrewJason Baur '18
CrewRyan Collet '15 [1-8]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers SkipperDavid Larson '16
CrewGreta Farrell '18 [1-8]
CrewJoseph Paggi '16
CrewEthan Stark '18 [1-8]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos SkipperDuncan Swain '15
CrewLeah Fletcher '17 [1-8]
CrewJames Downer '15
CrewJames Moody '16 [1-8]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts SkipperMichael Zonnenberg '15
CrewJames McCracken '17 [1-8]
CrewFrederick Finkenauer '17
CrewKyle Hanlon '18 [1-8]

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  8 boats · 9 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1David Larson '16Massachusetts Institute of Technology9/92.022.73+0.7199th → 99th2.022%3.2 / 4.3
2Duncan Swain '15Tufts University9/91.832.04+0.2097th → 99th0.229%3.8 / 4.6
2William Bailey '15Boston College9/92.542.61+0.0799th → 99th0.064%3.8 / 3.5
4Ryan Astwood '16Boston University9/91.972.29+0.3299th → 99th0.439%3.9 / 4.3
5Alexander Giordano '15Connecticut College9/91.601.58−0.0291st → 91st0.050%4.9 / 4.9
6Michael Zonnenberg '15University of Vermont9/91.651.24−0.4293rd → 83rd0.663%5.2 / 4.8
7William Hawk '18Bowdoin College9/92.111.51−0.6099th → 91st1.884%5.3 / 4.1
8Hollister Poole '15Maine Maritime Academy9/91.231.14−0.0983rd → 78th0.071%6.1 / 5.4

Conditions — 09/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1025.4 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From E (97°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine8.7 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1025.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Maine Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Maine Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled fleet-race days at Maine Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →