Massachusetts Institute of Technology '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 98.96 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.098 rating points from 107 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.06 (fleet 2.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–19 (49%) as crew 66–42 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 18–19 | 30–23 |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | — | 19–6 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 9–7 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 8–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (145 matches) the record is 84–61 against 92.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.52 | 2.21 | 9–9 | 10.3 | −0.31 | 0.3 | 81% |
| 2018-04-07 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.23 | 3.27 | 9–9 | 8.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.31 | 2.51 | 8–9 | 11.0 | −0.81 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 0.38 | 2–8 | 6.3 | −2.19 | 6.5 | >99% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 3.72 | 3.21 | 13–5 | 14.4 | −0.50 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 4.43 | 7–2 | 4.2 | +1.92 | 3.6 | 3% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | crew | 3.42 | 4.69 | 4–2 | 2.6 | +1.27 | 1.3 | 18% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | crew | 3.55 | 3.50 | 15–4 | 15.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 3.37 | 3.11 | 9–7 | 9.7 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | crew | 3.36 | 2.79 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 3.4 | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 6.2 | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 2.92 |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 3.2 | — |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 24 | 54% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Crew | A, B | 3 | 8.3 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.8 | 2.35 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.1 | 3.08 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.9 | 3.83 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.3 | 2.68 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.4 | 4.33 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.8 | 1.91 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.7 | 2.20 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.0 | 2.89 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.1 | 3.27 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.0 | 2.48 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 2.62 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.9 | 1.94 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.8 | 3.03 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.5 | 1.42 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 3.97 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | 2.71 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.4 | 2.69 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 2.31 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.7 | 1.77 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 2.69 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.1 | 2.22 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.0 | 2.07 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Crew | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.9 | 1.09 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 79% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.5 | 2.08 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.2 | 2.14 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.4 | 1.43 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.3 | 2.62 |
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 2.39 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.6 | 0.57 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 1.81 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.7 | 0.39 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.5 | 2.09 |
| John Jackson Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | A | 9 | 7.4 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Crew | B | 12 | 4.5 | — |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.2 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Crew | A | 5 | 5.2 | — |
| Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Crew | A | 10 | 2.9 | — |
| Crews Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 2.29 |
| Barnett Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 3.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
