Southern New England Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/17/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	14–4
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	13–5
3	Boston University	Terriers	12–6
3	Connecticut College	Camels	12–6
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11–7
6	Brown University	Bears	10–8
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–10
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	7–11
9	University of Michigan	Wolverines	2–16
10	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,042 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 68 of 90 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.23 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 22% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	4	9.83 school −0.07	Nick Sertl / Christine Gosioco 3.69 Nick Digiovanni / Catherine Tang 3.10 Taylor Ladd / Kirstin Anderson 2.97 10–2 Henry Burnes / Kirstin Anderson 3.31 4–2	67%	14–4 (78%)	+2.0
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1	10.60 school +0.25	Ty Ingram / Greta Farrell 3.72 Trevor Long / John Ped 3.39 Cutter O'Connell / Sarah Caso 3.19	80%	13–5 (72%)	−1.4
3	Boston University Terriers	7	8.83 school −0.28	Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline 3.19 Ravi Parent / Grace Mooradian 3.33 7–5 Reed Lorimer / Hannah Davis 2.53 7–5 Ravi Parent / Alex Moreno 3.42 5–1 Reed Lorimer / Charles Honke 2.55 5–1	45%	12–6 (67%)	+3.9
3	Connecticut College Camels	2	10.00 home +0.41	Hugh Macgillivray / Gwynie Dunlevy 3.31 Walter Florio / Albert Rodiger 3.05 Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.14	70%	12–6 (67%)	−0.6
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	9.96 school +0.27	Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.47 Christian Filter / Hannah Konkel 3.06 William Hawk / Emily Gonzalez 3.12	69%	11–7 (61%)	−1.4
6	Brown University Bears	5	9.59 school +0.17	Sam Alexander / Sawyer Balint 2.94 Patrick Shanahan / Emily Ito 3.54 7–7 Quinn Andersen / Julia Reynolds 2.91 7–7 Patrick Shanahan / Julia Reynolds 3.52 3–1 Quinn Andersen / Emily Ito 2.94 3–1	62%	10–8 (56%)	−1.1
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	8.74 school −0.28	Mack Fox / Anna Morin 3.18 Shane Riera / Brian Nelson 2.75 Austin Lettengarver / Christina Nothacker 3.14 5–7 Austin Lettengarver / Andrew Widmeier 3.04 1–3 Andrew Widmeier / Christina Nothacker 2–0	45%	8–10 (44%)	−0.1
8	Tufts University Jumbos	6	8.84 school +0.09	Samuel Shea / Juliana Testa 2.59 Christopher Keller / Michelle Chisdak 2.88 6–8 Jackson Mccoy / Emily Calandrella 3.23 6–8 Christopher Keller / Emily Calandrella 2.94 1–3 Jackson Mccoy / Marisa Permatteo 3.18 1–3	45%	7–11 (39%)	−1.1
9	University of Michigan Wolverines	9	6.52 school −0.05	Colton Gerber / Sidney Thompson 1.84 Connor Goulet / Lane Tobin 1.88 August Sturm / Amy Baer 2.73	16%	2–16 (11%)	−0.8
10	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	4.34	Alexander Ellis / Christian Neuman 1.58 William Sesack / Jordan Emery John Wilcenski / Kyle Gelderman	2%	1–17 (6%)	+0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
10	SUNY Maritime College	4.34	5.66	1–17	0.3	+1.32	0.8	28%
3	Boston University	8.83	10.04	12–6	8.1	+1.21	3.4	3%
1	Harvard University	9.83	10.52	14–4	12.0	+0.69	1.0	20%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.74	8.71	8–10	8.1	−0.03	0.0	62%
3	Connecticut College	10.00	9.81	12–6	12.6	−0.19	0.1	74%
6	Brown University	9.59	9.26	10–8	11.1	−0.33	0.3	81%
8	Tufts University	8.84	8.43	7–11	8.1	−0.41	0.3	83%
5	Bowdoin College	9.96	9.51	11–7	12.4	−0.44	0.5	86%
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.60	10.09	13–5	14.4	−0.50	0.5	88%
9	University of Michigan	6.52	5.63	2–16	2.8	−0.88	0.5	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alexander Ellis	SUNY Maritime College	1.58	2.90	1–17	0.3	+1.32	0.8	28%
William Sesack	SUNY Maritime College	0.94	2.26	1–17	0.3	+1.32	0.8	28%
John Wilcenski	SUNY Maritime College	1.45	2.77	1–17	0.3	+1.32	0.8	28%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.33	4.54	12–6	8.1	+1.21	3.4	3%
Taylor Ladd	Harvard University	2.97	4.01	10–2	8.2	+1.04	1.3	17%
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	3.10	3.78	14–4	12.0	+0.69	1.0	20%
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.14	2.98	6–10	6.4	−0.16	0.1	70%
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	3.05	2.86	12–6	12.6	−0.19	0.1	74%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	2.88	2.48	7–11	8.1	−0.41	0.3	83%
Samuel Shea	Tufts University	2.59	2.18	7–11	8.1	−0.41	0.3	83%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.12	2.68	11–7	12.4	−0.44	0.5	86%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.72	3.21	13–5	14.4	−0.50	0.5	88%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.39	2.88	13–5	14.4	−0.50	0.5	88%
August Sturm	University of Michigan	2.73	1.85	2–16	2.8	−0.88	0.5	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	University of Michigan	97%
1	2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	86%
1	4	Brown University	Harvard University	47%	upset
1	5	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	75%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	24%	upset
1	7	Boston University	University of Michigan	91%
1	8	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	85%
1	10	Bowdoin College	Brown University	59%
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	51%
1	12	Harvard University	Connecticut College	43%	upset
1	13	Tufts University	University of Michigan	91%
1	14	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	15	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	35%	upset
1	16	Boston University	Harvard University	22%	upset
1	17	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	50%
1	18	Connecticut College	Brown University	60%
1	19	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	98%
1	20	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	21	Harvard University	Tufts University	77%
1	22	Boston University	Brown University	31%	upset
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	24	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	25	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	97%
1	26	Brown University	Tufts University	68%
1	27	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	37%	upset
1	28	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Michigan	82%
1	30	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	51%
1	31	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	27%	upset
1	32	SUNY Maritime College	Tufts University	1%	upset
1	33	Harvard University	University of Michigan	96%
1	34	Boston University	Connecticut College	23%	upset
1	35	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	23%	upset
1	36	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	37	Brown University	University of Michigan	96%
1	38	Tufts University	Connecticut College	24%	upset
1	39	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
1	40	Bowdoin College	Boston University	74%
1	41	University of Michigan	SUNY Maritime College	90%
1	42	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	65%
1	43	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	32%	upset
1	44	Boston University	Tufts University	52%
1	45	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	44%	upset
2	46	Connecticut College	University of Michigan	97%
2	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	48	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	86%
2	49	Harvard University	Brown University	53%
2	50	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	25%	upset
2	51	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
2	52	Boston University	University of Michigan	91%
2	53	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
2	54	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	85%
2	55	Bowdoin College	Brown University	59%
2	56	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	49%	upset
2	57	Harvard University	Connecticut College	43%	upset
2	58	Tufts University	University of Michigan	91%
2	59	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	60	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	66%
2	61	Harvard University	Boston University	78%
2	62	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	50%	upset
2	63	Connecticut College	Brown University	60%
2	64	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	98%
2	65	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	100%
2	66	Harvard University	Tufts University	77%
2	67	Boston University	Brown University	31%	upset
2	68	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
2	69	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	100%
2	70	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	97%
2	71	Brown University	Tufts University	68%
2	72	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	64%
2	73	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	74	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Michigan	83%
2	75	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	51%
2	76	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	27%	upset
2	77	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	78	Harvard University	University of Michigan	96%
2	79	Connecticut College	Boston University	77%
2	80	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
2	81	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	SUNY Maritime College	100%
2	82	Brown University	University of Michigan	95%
2	83	Connecticut College	Tufts University	76%
2	84	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	72%
2	85	Boston University	Bowdoin College	26%	upset
2	86	University of Michigan	SUNY Maritime College	89%
2	87	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	35%	upset
2	88	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	68%
2	89	Boston University	Tufts University	51%
2	90	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	56%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Engineers	Terriers	Camels	Bears	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	Wolverines	Privateers
Harvard University Crimson	7–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–3	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–3	W	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–3	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–4	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–3	L	L	W	W	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	L
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Engineers	Terriers	Camels	Bears	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	Wolverines	Privateers
Harvard University Crimson	7–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–2	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	8–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
2	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
3	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
6	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
7	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
8	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
9	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
10	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
11	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
12	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
13	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
14	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
16	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
18	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
19	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
20	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
21	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
22	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
23	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
24	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
25	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
26	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
27	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
28	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
30	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
31	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
32	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
33	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
34	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
35	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
36	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
37	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
38	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
39	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
40	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
41	Wolverines	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
42	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
43	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
44	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
45	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
46	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Wolverines	2-5-6
47	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
48	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
49	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
50	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
51	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
52	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
53	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
54	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
55	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
56	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
57	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
58	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Wolverines	1-4-6
59	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
60	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
61	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
62	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
63	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
64	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
65	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
66	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
67	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
68	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
69	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
70	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
71	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
72	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
73	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
74	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
75	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
76	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
77	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
78	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
79	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
80	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
81	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
82	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6 DNF
83	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
84	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
85	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
86	Wolverines	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
87	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
88	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
89	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
90	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Henry Burnes '22 Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18 Taylor Ladd '18	Kirstin Anderson '18 Catherine Tang '19 Christine Gosioco '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Cutter O'Connell '18 Trevor Long '19 Ty Ingram '18	Sarah Caso '19 John Ped '21 Greta Farrell '18
Boston University	Terriers	Ravi Parent '18 Reed Lorimer '18 Robby Gearon '19	Grace Mooradian '21 Alex Moreno '19 Hannah Davis '19 Charles Honke '20 Lexi Pline '19
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18	Cecilia Moreira '20 Gwynie Dunlevy '20 Albert Rodiger '18
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Hannah Konkel '20 Louisa Lindgren '19 Emily Gonzalez '20
Brown University	Bears	Patrick Shanahan '19 Quinn Andersen '18 Sam Alexander '18	Emily Ito '19 Julia Reynolds '22 Sawyer Balint '20
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Andrew Widmeier '20 Austin Lettengarver '19 Mack Fox '20 Shane Riera '21	Christina Nothacker '21 Andrew Widmeier '20 Anna Morin '19 Brian Nelson '21
Tufts University	Jumbos	Christopher Keller '19 Jackson Mccoy '19 Samuel Shea '19	Emily Calandrella '20 Michelle Chisdak '18 Marisa Permatteo '19 Juliana Testa '21
University of Michigan	Wolverines	August Sturm '20 Colton Gerber '18 Connor Goulet '21	Amy Baer '19 Sidney Thompson '18 Lane Tobin '18
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Alexander Ellis '21 John Wilcenski '21 William Sesack '21	Christian Neuman '21 Kyle Gelderman '21 Jordan Emery '21

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1005.8 hPa

Temperature

37°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 28°F

Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.3 kn

avg · max 14.3 kn

Gusts to 34.0 kn

From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1005.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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